The Case for Trading… Anybody.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve taken a close look at the pros/cons for trading various members of the Atlanta Braves during this off-season – and off-season that now officially begins tomorrow morning once the Giants and Royals conclude their business tonight.  The real work is about to begin for our 2-headed General Manager John John (Hart and Coppolella).

Let’s review and add a few thoughts.

The Tasks

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What is it that is

necessary

for the Atlanta Braves to do for 2015?  Here are the tasks for the major league club:

• Improve the offense (run scoring, hitting)
• Fill pitching holes (3 free agent pitchers are about to drop off the roster)

For future considerations, we now know what philosophy changes are in the mix, thanks to the new hires:

• Attempt to return to the John Schuerholz formula from the 1990’s.  Emphasis on player development, with limited specific free agent signings to fill needs. Pitching development is at the core of this.
• Improve scouting (the return of Roy Clark and others in that department)
• Improve International presence (George Blakeley)
• Less emphasis on power, more on OBP and contact hitting (Kevin Seitzer)

Given this new direction, how will these tasks be accomplished?

• Reduce dependence on the home run
• Reduce strikeouts
• Increase speed
• Reduce the payroll so that pitching gaps can be filled
• Use targeted trades and signings to fill holes and replenish farm system

Here is what actually might happen this Fall.

Priority One

It is no secret that the Braves would like to remove B.J. Upton from the roster.  Increasingly, that sounds like they would even be willing to release him outright if necessary – which would require eating $46.35 million.  He is the key to the off-season.

Sep 15, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder

(2). Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve talked a lot about swapping bad contracts.  We’ve talked about package deals (“Yes, you have have this guy that you really want… if you also take B.J.“).

My take is that the Braves really have only a couple of options:

• Release him
• Very low-ball trade (eat 80-90% of his contract in a token trade for a non-prospect)

The reason for this short list is in the value of their trade chips.  The Braves’ pitching needs are profound right now:  2 starting pitching positions need to be filled… at a minimum.  Trading, say, a Mike Minor along with B.J. Upton… even if an Edwin Jackson is returned (the rumored deal from July)… doesn’t really help that situation unless we know that Jackson would suddenly turn into a better pitcher.  But that’s not likely.

Thus it makes better business sense – if you’re going to use trade chips to improve the club – to use them for maximum effect.  That means making stand-alone deals for your best chips… and sending B.J. away in a manner similar to the Derek Lowe contract dump (Cleveland picked up $5m of his $15m deal).  But in this case, I believe that will require eating something between $33m and $40m of that remaining $46.35 million.

Considering Trades

In our review of trade options, there was one thing fairly clear:  the Braves like Christian Bethancourt a lot.  If he’s going to be the primary catcher, then there is a clear problem in trying to find playing time for both Evan Gattis and Justin Upton.  Other teams know this and one of these players is going to be in high demand by December.  I’ll let Peter Gammons tell you who and why:

It will be very difficult for the Braves to resist trading the White Bear, for Evan is the most valuable trade chip the Braves have.  He is controllable (doesn’t even start the arbitration process until 2016; not a free agent until 2019).  He is cheap.  He is relatively versatile.

Oh – and he hits like a truck.

EITHER JUSTIN OR EVAN HAS TO GO

Justin’s value is in his bat, plus the full year under contract (a $14.7 million contract).  He would be worth a compensation draft pick in 2016 to whomever has him on the roster for all of 2015.  The Braves would likely target Justin to be moved for the simple reason of unloading his salary (and they should still get a solid prospect back in return).

However, Atlanta will very likely find themselves in the midst of an all-out bidding war for Gattis… one that could solve a lot of problems in a hurry.  If they trade Gattis, Justin would then be kept for the draft pick – his cost exposure is limited to just one year, so that would be an acceptable risk/reward scenario.

WHAT ABOUT THE OTHERS?

The “others” meaning those we discussed earlier:  Heyward, Johnson, and Walden.

I believe Jason should thrive under a Kevin Seitzer tutelage.  His ‘team-player’ attitude, athleticism, speed, power and defense – all would play well in that kind of lineup.  If he wants to remain a Brave, then I believe the team would offer a suitable long-term deal (that hasn’t happened yet, but it’s hardly the highest priority right now).

For reasons previously cited, I believe Chris Johnson remains a Brave.  Let’s hope Seitzer can help his consistency.

Jordan Walden could still be used as a trade piece – albeit a minor one – though I personally believe in keeping him as part of a strong bullpen that could become vital in 2015… depending on how the starting pitching situation plays out.

BUT WAIT!  THERE’S MORE…

Aug 10, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman

(7). Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

There is one more trade scenario we never got around to discussing:  that involves second base.  Right now, there are three candidates:

• Tommy La Stella
• Philip Gosselin
• Jose Peraza

The real question here is probably “when will Peraza by ready for the majors?”  Long-term, he’s the guy – both for that position and for the lead-off role.  Once that is determined, one of the other two – likely La Stella – will be traded.

Gosselin has added value because of his ability to play multiple positions – in the infield and outfield.  La Stella is solid, but is essentially confined to second base.  That’s unfortunate, for he is also the embodiment of the Kevin Seitzer school of hitting:  he uses the whole field and walks more than he K’s.

My suspicion is that the following will happen:

• Ramiro Pena will be non-tendered.
• Jose Peraza will begin 2015 in AAA after getting a long look in Spring via the major league camp.
• La Stella and Gosselin will share the second base position while Gosselin also serves as the ‘super-utility’ guy.
• If, by June-ish Peraza is tearing up AAA, then La Stella will be offered up in trade before the July deadline and Peraza will be promoted.
• If Jose is doing so-so, then he gets the full year at Gwinnett and we talk about this scenario again a year from now.

If a team wants La Stella in the interim, then I could see Atlanta moving him and promoting Peraza directly to the majors.

Trade Wrap

In summary, I believe:

• B.J. will be let go in what amounts to a salary dump deal
• Justin or Evan will be traded.  If it’s Justin, then Gattis will see a lot of left field… with some help (Terdoslavich, Gosselin).  I would bet that it’s Gattis… in something that finally avenges the Mark Teixeira deals.
• Jason Heyward remains
• Chris Johnson remains
• Jordan Walden… I hope he remains
• The second base position question is kicked down the road for another 9-12 months while Peraza is groomed in AAA.

Let’s see your ideas!

Atlanta Braves – The Case for Trading… Anybody.  TomahawkTake.com.  October 29, 2014.