Did Braves Make the Right Call On Tim Hudson?

It is pretty easy at this point to sit back and say “Tim Hudson is a World Series Champion – we should have still had him with the Braves”.  But in reviewing the respective years of his performance and that of the Braves, I’m really not certain of that anymore.  Frank Wren may actually have made the right call there.

The Financial Part

Personally, I do not like the manner in which Atlanta treated Hudson last off-season.  In effect, he was not simply asked to try the market elsewhere, he was actually rudely shown the door.  That is the part that offends me about the process, and I want to make that point very clear up front.

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Call to the Pen

A bit of history:

After having made $15.5 million in 2008-2009 with Atlanta (

, Tim recognized that money was going to be an issue coming up.  He clearly wanted to stay with the Braves at that time, so he low-balled himself and quickly worked out a 3 year, $27m deal with Wren that included an option for 2013.  All of that

was

picked up.

So now we arrive at the end of the 2013 season.  It wasn’t his best:  3.97 ERA (3.46 FIP better than most, though).  He had some occasional back issues, he was 38 years old, and then there was that broken ankle… one of those ‘just happened’ baseball injuries.

Wren now counts arms among his available starting pitchers:  Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, and maybe Alex Wood.  And if anything went wrong, there was also Freddy Garcia lurking about.  Or David Hale.  That sounds like enough.

He offered Tim Hudson $2 million.  With an option for 2015 (yeah, right… odds that gets picked?  None.)

Really, Frank??  NOT how you should treat a borderline-HOFer.

Just on the surface, I see that and think “this is clearly designed to make him go elsewhere.”  But what was really odd is what happened next.

Tim did look elsewhere.  And belatedly, Wren raised his offer.  Now that’s not the behavior of somebody that you’d think was trying to chase off a player.

Frankly, if Wren had come forth with a $7-9 million offer right up front, I’d have to believe that Tim would have taken it.  He wanted to stay.  But the funny part is that by playing it as he did, Wren probably ended up in that very price range – and was stomped on by a Giants club that clearly wanted Tim.

$11 million for 2014; $12 million for 2015.

The Response

On December 16th, the Braves announced the signing of Gavin Floyd to a single-year, $4 million deal with $4.5 million in incentives.  He was effectively the replacement for Tim Hudson.

As we know, those incentives were never reached as Floyd pitched very well… for 9 starts.  His 2.65 ERA was excellent, but ultimately unsustainable as his elbow popped and required a significant repair – ending his season.

In the meantime, we also know now that we lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy.  That pair was replaced by the tandem of Ervin Santana ($14.1 million) and Aaron Harang (for the stunningly bargain-basement price of $1 million).  At least they were able to finish the year.

But as this is about Hudson, we have:

• Tim Hudson ($11m in 2014, $12m in 2015)
• Gavin Floyd ($4m in 2014)

You’d have to admit that this is a big different in coin.  The 2015 chapter of this has yet to be written, but clearly, Atlanta will not spend $19 million on a pitcher to match that $23m outlay

Performance

I just told you about Floyd’s performance:  2.65 ERA over 9 starts.  He was clearly back to form… well, until…

Oct 24, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Hudson. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Tim Hudson started 2014 like a Cy Young candidate:  ERA’s of 2.17 in April, 1.46 in May.  Even the 3.86/3.13/3.81 in June/July/August was hardly shabby.

In September, he seemed to run out of gas:  8.72.  Extra rest helped in the playoffs, though different strategies (like yanking him early last night) led to a 4.29 ERA in 21 innings/4 starts despite a 1.10 WHIP.  But lefties were hitting .331 against him and right-handers .292 over the season.  After June, all hitters were tagging him consistently – .408 in September.

Tim’s best days are likely behind him – he posted a losing record (9-13) for the first season ever in his career.  The 3.57 ERA was certainly respectable, though looked a lot better before September.

But can you imagine how that would have looked as part of the Braves’ rotation?

I submit that Tim Hudson would have not exactly meant a great deal of difference to the Braves’ fortunes.  As a leader in the clubhouse?  Yes – absolutely.  On the field?  Not so much.

• Aaron Harang is probably the closest “comp” to Tim this year:  12-12 record, identical 3.57 ERA with more innings (204 vs. 189).  Harang walks a couple more, strikes out a couple more.
• Ervin Santana was a little worse that Tim, as he also faded in performance toward the end (3.95, 14-10).

But ultimately, the difference in not having Hudson around meant …

… more of Alex Wood.

Recall that when Gavin Floyd hit the rotation, Wood went to the pen.  That did not work very well.  Once Floyd broke down, Alex Wood came back and arguably became the Braves’ best starter:  2.59 ERA with a .235 BAA, and 1.14 WHIP.

Certainly, Alex – and Floyd, too, for that matter – was better than Tim Hudson.

But if Tim were there, Alex Wood would have been the odd man out.  Gavin Floyd would not have been signed.  Tim would have pitched his 189-ish innings and Wood might have spot-started for Minor or Harang here and there … that was it.

Would Tim Hudson have been better on the Braves?

Not a chance.  The Giants, you see, could actually hit a bit… 4th on NL offensive fWAR, 3rd in Run Creation, 5th in actual runs scored.

The Braves?  11th, 11th and 14th.

Did Tim Hudson make the Giants Better?

Certainly:  his early performance helped carry the team while they figured out what to do with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.  Okay, yes, Madison Bumgarner was pretty good too – and Jake Peavy helped save them down the stretch.  But Tim was the steady guy.

For the Braves, that would have been all wasted effort.

Hindsight is 20/20

I can’t say any of this with certainty.  Different circumstances change outcomes.  But I do believe that I can argue that Atlanta actually saved a bit of cash, plus actually had a better outcome (between Floyd and Wood’s pitching) than would have been the case with Tim Hudson on the bump.

Would Tim have helped kick that Braves’ squad in the rear for a few more wins?  Tough to say.  “Maybe” is my best guess.  Would it have made a difference overall?  Really hard to say.  Right now, we know that The Johns in the Front Office have plenty of work to do in acquiring pitching for 2015.

Had Tim signed a competitive deal with Atlanta – we might still have him on the mound for 2015, too… as he runs up to age 40.

I will say that I did not approve of the handling of the ‘negotiations’ for Tim’s services, but the outcome seems to have kinda worked out.

I do know this:  Huddy will enjoy that new ring.