2015 Hall of Fame Ballot Released [Smoltz]

The (non-blogging) Baseball Writers’ Association of America has released the ballot of candidates for the Class of 2015.  The one name – in particular – that Braves’ fans are watching for in this group is the name that was missing from our distinguished group of inductees in 2014:  John Smoltz.

Smoltz ended up taking the risk of trying to play out an extra year – 2009 – that extended the date in which he would be eligible for the ballot, while Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine finished up in 2008.  It remains to be seen whether that adversely impacts his “electability” since the possible lure of ‘voting the whole group in together’ won’t be there.  Nonetheless, his case for the Hall is strong, and whether he gets the nod as a “first ballot player” or not, it’s a good bet that Smoltzie will eventually get his chance to return the jibes dished out from his teammates during last Summer’s ceremonies.

Smoltz’s Case for the Hall

213 wins, 155 losses, but also 154 saves over 21 seasons.

All-Star selection 8 times.  Cy Young award winner in 1996 (24-8 record with 254 innings).  Silver Slugger award – much to Glavine’s consternation, I’m certain – in 1997.  Cy Young Top 10 in 4 additional years (noting that Maddux and Glavine were often his competition).  MVP Top 20 three times (21st one other time).  Credited with a no-decision in what some call the greatest World Series 7th game ever – the duel with Jack Morris in 1991.

Smoltz is the only pitcher in major league history with 200+ wins and 100+ saves.  The closest was Charlie Hough – with 61 saves.  Smoltz had 154  (Dennis Eckersley had 197 wins to go with 390 saves – the most wins for pitchers with more saves than Smoltz).  He is 16th all-time in strikeouts (Don Sutton 7th, Maddux 10th) with 3084, while being 74th all-time in innings pitched.  All of this would seem to add up to a Cooperstown appointment.

The Rest of the Ballot

For those previously on the ballot, their vote percentage in 2014 is given, plus their years on the ballot.  Players need 75% support on the ballots cast to be elected.  If a player fails to be elected, he is carried over to the next year provided that his name gets at least 5% support.  Last year, the rules were changed:  the “carry-over” time period was reduced from 15 years to 10 years.  Those who had already been on the ballot for 10 years will continue under the old rules.

Rich Aurilia
Jeff Bagwell        54.3%    [4]
Craig Biggio        74.8%    [2]
Barry Bonds        34.7%    [2]
Aaron Boone

Live Feed

Call to the Pen

35.4%    [2]

15.2%    [1]

25.2%    [5]

8.2%    [14]

11.7%    [5]

11.0%    [8]

20.3%    [1]

62.2%    [2]

46.1%    [7]

29.2%    [2]

29.9%    [12]

John Smoltz

7.2%    [2]

20.8%    [13]

So Who Gets In This Year?

• Craig Biggio should be a lock.  He missed out by a scant 2 votes last year… and for some reason, voters seem to “warm up” to certain players as time progresses (not that their stats changed).
• Randy Johnson should be a lock.  This was the pitcher regularly challenging – and winning – the Cy Young awards that Atlanta’s Big Three didn’t win in the 1990-2005 era.  He owns five of those trophies, including 4 in a row (1999-2002).
• Pedro Martinez. 219-100, but three Cy awards (and 4 top 4’s besides).  Guessing the voters going for Smoltz would also vote for Martinez.

The next tier…

• John Smoltz should get in, though voters are fickle – they might shy away from a large entry class.
• Mike Piazza.  Here’s another guy who could be denied in 2015… partly because of steroid era speculation (and the “back hair” nuttiness).

Players Not Getting in:

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Mark McGwire
• Sammy Sosa
• Edgar Martinez

One of these names is not like the other.  Edgar Martinez was the prototypical DH… and that’s also why he won’t get in.  Then again, his career was perhaps a bit too short (2055 games) for the tastes of many voters, as he started fairly late with the Mariners.

As for the rest, these are the Poster Children of the steroid era.  The stats are obvious.  But voters are holding them – more than any others – for the sins of the 1980’s and 1990’s.  Right or wrong, it’s the reality.

Players Not Getting Enough Love

I personally would vote for the following:

• Tim Raines.  His problem is that (a) he’s Rickey Henderson-light; and (b) he played in Montreal.  But no question:  Raines should be in the Hall.
• Gary Sheffield.  .292 lifetime batting average, 1676 RBI and 509 homers with a 10.7% career K rate and 13.5% walk rate.  62.4 lifetime fWAR.  Dangerous hitter.  Was with the Braves for 2002-2003, producing 12.4 WAR – the best 2 year stretch of his career.
• Fred McGriff.  Along with Sheffield, the most dangerous hitter of his era for a number of years.  Fred’s “problem” with the Hall voters is probably the fact that he’s just too nice of a guy.  There’s no flash or big personality here – he just went out and played the game well.  His stats are ever-so-slightly behind those of Sheffield (virtually across the board), but probably will never gain election, as his production dropped and leveled out over his last 10 seasons (3 of those with Atlanta).  As such, in his particular case, I’m voting for the man as much as for the player.
• Jeff Bagwell.  Lack of longevity may have hurt him, but production sure didn’t:  .297 lifetime with 80.2 WAR.  Again, it’s the steroid era specter that haunts him… with no evidence.

So let’s see your “ballots”:  who should get in?  Let us know in the comments section!