Who do Atlanta Braves pick? Tomas? Lester? Why not both!
By Ryan Cothran
*Prequel to the following piece: Baseball Analysts are now suggesting that Jon Lester will sign a deal with an AAV of 25 million. If that happens, Braves should pass. However, there are a few things to remember about Lester: 1. He lives very near to future Braves stadium. 2. Braves are interested in David Ross and that was Lester’s pitch and catch buddy in Boston. 3. According to Heyman, Braves/Red Sox have upper hand in negotiations with Lester because it “isn’t about the money”. Bowman chimes in that the Braves are showing increased interest in both Lester and Tomas. With that being said…
It could very well be that the Atlanta Braves will be paying 2 guys to not play baseball in 2015
And there’s no way around it, that sucks. The extension given to Dan Uggla will stop haunting the Braves payroll after 2015, yet B.J.’s will remain like the old cheese left in your former college roommate’s refrigerator. You all know the guy I’m talking about, the one that is well past college age, but still takes “classes”, has a scraping by 9 to 5, and spends every last waking second eating hot wings and pizza while playing Madden whatever year it is.
That guy.
That cheese.
That’s B.J. Upton‘s contract. Can ya smell it because it frickin’ stinks.
So surely, the Braves are handicapped for cash and have no real money to spend on free agents this offseason and the interest we have all heard of Jon Lester, Yoan Moncada, and Yasmany Tomas is just the Braves doing their due diligence, right? Not so fast, pilgrim.
Atlanta Braves current payroll situation
After the Jason Heyward trade, the Braves now only have 8 committed contracts for the 2015 season. Here are those players: Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, B.J. Upton, Chris Johnson, Justin Upton, Julio Teheran, (Dan Uggla)
Total for 7 players on roster: 71MM
Now, let’s add the arbitration eligible players and their likely salaries (according to MLBTR):
1. Mike Minor– 5.1MM
2. James Russell– 2.4MM
3. David Carpenter-1.1MM
Total for 10 players on roster: 79.6MM
Lastly, let’s look at the players that are likely to make the Opening Day roster that are pre-arbitration players. For their projected salaries, I’ll use 600K:
Infielders: Jose Peraza, Phil Gosselin
Catchers: Evan Gattis, Christian Bethancourt
Outfielders: Zoilo Almonte
Starting Pitchers: Shelby Miller, Alex Wood
Relief Pitchers: Shae Simmons, Luis Avilan, Anthony Varvaro, Chasen Shreve, Arodys Vizcaino
Total for 22 players on roster: 86.8MM
It’s been almost a month now when John Hart informed season-ticket holders that the Braves payroll will be “North of 100MM, south of 120MM”, so let’s take this year’s payroll of 112MM to perform this next set of exercises.
The Atlanta Braves can afford Yasmany Tomas and Jon Lester, and here’s how!
It’s been rumored Jon Lester will command a 20MM/year contract, and it’s also been rumored that Tomas is looking for a 6-7 year deal that would pay him 15MM/year. Doing the simple arithmetic, 86.8+20+15= 121.8, signing both without further moves would put the Braves over payroll and would leave them no money to fill other areas of need. So, what would it take to sign both guys and fill voids, keeping everything under the projected 112MM?
1. A Justin Upton trade- The Braves could trade Upton and his 15MM salary. 86.8+20+15-15= 106.8. Trading Justin merely for prospects would still leave holes in 2 OF positions and little to no money to spend on filling the holes.
2. A Mike Minor trade- The Braves could trade Mike Minor and his projected 5.1MM salary. 86.8+20+15-5.1=116.8. This really doesn’t solve anything and still leaves holes to be filled.
3. A Justin Upton/Mike Minor trade- Now we’re talking! Throwing out this idea…the Mariners have obvious interest in Justin Upton, and rightfully so as he’s the prototypical RH power bat that they’d like to add to the middle of their lineup. The Braves would likely covet an OF in return and a few other pieces. However, the list has grown thicker than just the Mariners as the Rangers, Astros, Padres, and Reds have been linked to Justin. Let’s try a few of these faux-trades on for size. It’s pretty easy to find matchups that would work for both sides in 2 of the 5 teams listed above, so I’ll focus on them.
Deal #1: Atlanta Braves send Justin Upton and Mike Minor to the Mariners in exchange for Michael Saunders, Brad Miller, and Taijuan Walker. Analysis- the Mariners would be barking mad if they chose to deal Walker straight up for Upton. However, adding Mike Minor into this scenario gives the Mariners a starting pitcher they can ink into their rotation for 3 more years. Michael Saunders is said to be “on the outs” with Mariners GM and Brad Miller didn’t live up to the hype of his 2013 year. This trade would fill the utility role with Brad Miller being able to play all infield spots well-above average defensively, and would provide a platoon partner for Chris Johnson. Michael Saunders would be the RF replacement for Jason Heyward as Yasmany Tomas would be taking the LF duties. Taijuan Walker would slot into the Braves rotation for the next half-decade. Financial breakdown: 86.8+20 for Lester+15 for Tomas- 20 for JUp/Minor+ 4 for Walker/Miller/Saunders= 105.8MM for 23 players. There’s room to get more! And we didn’t trade Gattis!
Deal #2: Atlanta Braves send Justin Upton and Mike Minor to the Rangers in exchange for Michael Choice and Jurickson Profar. The players the Braves would acquire in this package was part of the “Who’s Who” among Minor League prospects prior to the 2014 season, but both fizzled hard, one due to season-ending injury, and one of whom completely forgot how to hit. These 2 prospects are tainted, but could easily turn into 2 great Major Leaguers. Profar immediately becomes Super-Utility for the Braves and is the LH platoon partner for Chris Johnson. Michael Choice patrols the OF and looks to shake off his poor 2014. I’ll say this about this deal, it’s ridiculously risky, but has the upside that other trades might not. Financial breakdown= 101.8M for 22 players. Still room to get more!
In my opinion, when it breaks down as far as positives for both sides, I think the Braves and Mariners really match up well together. Mike Minor’s pitching style would fit well in that ballpark, Justin Upton’s light-tower power would still leave the yard regularly in that ballpark, and the Braves could use the 3 listed above on their 2015 roster. This would give Evan Gattis one more year behind the dish before he is inevitably shipped off to an American League club, gives the Braves one of the toughest rotations in the Majors from top to bottom for years to come, and fills all holes but one: center field. Luckily, the Braves would have a bit left over to work on that. They could go after…ah heck, I’ve speculated enough already. It’s your turn.
Do you all see any other match-ups? Let’s hear it!