Tomas Says ‘No Mas’ – Signs With DBacks

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In a move that’s starting to sound familiar – the “mystery team” swooping in to snatch up a free agent at the end – widespread reports confirm that

the Arizona Diamondbacks have reached an agreement to sign Cuban hitter

.  The deal is for 6 years and a maximum of $68.5 million, with an “opt-out” clause after the fourth year (2018).

Those terms are eyebrow-raising, for they neither reached the estimated $70-90 million level that many thought might be possible, nor the $15-17m annual average that was said to be requested.  $11.4 million per year isn’t anywhere near that, in fact.

This morning we reported that the Braves appeared to not only be still in the running for Tomas, but possibly the leader in the bidding as well.  This announcement is therefore a little surprising for two reasons:

• The DBacks were just getting into the fray over the past couple of days – it was just 2 days ago that they held a workout for him.
• The swiftness in which this deal came together.  That suggests to me that none of the “also-ran” bidders had nearly reached the price plateau that Arizona offered.  Sounds to me that Tomas and his agent took it quickly, lest that number drop off any further.

So we are now free to speculate:  did the Braves ‘lowball’ their offer?  Did they – and the other clubs involved – ultimately decide that Tomas will be easily susceptible to being fooled by major league pitching and thus become a right-handed Juan Francisco (lots of damage when he makes contact; lots of strikeouts otherwise)?  [Answer to the 1st question:  likely; answer to the 2nd:  also likely]

It is also possible that while many thought Atlanta was a leading contender for Tomas, that it was the Diamondbacks all along that were the front-runners.  One thing for sure:  there were several reports of teams (notably San Diego) being still in the bidding process at the $70 million level.  That bid must not have materialized – or – there may have been a red flag that caused them (and the others) to back that number down significantly.

On the MLB Network today, BaseballAmerica’s Ben Badler called Tomas one of the “most risky” prospects to come out of Cuba.  Clearly, many clubs were thinking in the same direction.

If that’s the case… then this writer would have to agree:  the best option was to pass.

So Now What?

The market supply of RH power hitters available this off-season has now shrunk by one.  Furthermore, it has shrunk because of a team that did not seem to be a “buyer” in that market in the first place.  But that still leaves the following hitters available:

• Nelson Cruz (free agent)
• Justin Upton (tradable)
• Evan Gattis (tradable)

… and unless somebody else becomes openly available via trade.  This week Boston pulled off a coup in signing both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.  The Marlins locked up Giancarlo Stanton.  Michael Cuddyer – if you think he’s even a member of this class – signed with the Mets previously as well.

So this probably helps Atlanta.  We have two of the best assets available – and teams will have to come with their best prospects to make an offer.  Additionally, the trade bar has already been set:  Jason Heyward brought us a controllable major league pitcher plus a solid (former) top prospect who is once-again healthy.

EVAN GATTIS.

Given his status (under team control until 2019), he will clearly bring the highest price… very likely two top-shelf prospects, plus lessers.  I anticipate that he will be traded first.

JUSTIN UPTON.

Depending on the return for Gattis, John Hart will then take offers on Justin.  If they are satisfactory, then he goes as well.  If not – Upton plays in 2015 with Atlanta (after all, we do need an outfield).  The return should exceed the level of a compensation draft pick by a large margin, for that’s the “floor” of what Atlanta gets if Upton remains a Braves through this next season.

NELSON CRUZ.

I put his name here simply because he’s part of the equation.  I will be curious to see if he will go ahead and sign “early”, given the situation.  He “only” costs money – not prospects – but then again, he’s going to be 35 years old next Summer.  How much longer will he be hitting well?  This is another question that favors the Braves.

What Could the Braves Get Back?

The possibilities on returns are nearly impossible to predict, as there are so many teams that will be interested in both Gattis and Upton.  The sky is the limit:  John Hart probably can’t screw this up if he tried.

What I am more interested in – and don’t yet have an answer about – is where the Braves should search for outfielders once Gattis and Upton are inevitably traded:  Desmond Jennings?  Dexter Fowler?  Austin Jackson?  Any of the several that the Red Sox now have available?  Does Atlanta go after Nick Markakis or Colby Rasmus once money becomes available?  We will be watching for hints.

But for now, one of the major dominoes has fallen.  Tomas has made his choice.

It’s still early, but the Hot Stove is really cranking up now.  Happy Thanksgiving, y’all.  Hopefully Tony La Russa didn’t just land a turkey.