Braves: Big Decision Early Next Week
Midnight, EST. Tuesday evening, December 2nd.
That is baseball’s non-tender deadline declaration date for 2014… just five days away. That’s the date by which teams must declare whether they will offer their arbitration-eligible players a contract for the next season. And John Hart is holding back his final decisions until the last possible moment, it would seem.
Some of those calls have already been made:
- Jonny Venters: released
- Ramiro Pena: designated for assignment, and out-righted from the 40-man roster. He is now officially in the minors.
- Cory Gearrin: released
Two of the more interesting cards in his hand still remain, though – both as they continue to recover from ligament-replacement surgeries:
Hart’s fears over the state of the Braves’ starting pitching situation is clearly making the call very difficult on whether to keep these starters around.
He is probably sleeping a little easier about pitching after the Jason Heyward trade since Shelby Miller was acquired. However, that still leaves one hole in the rotation, and – as is often pointed out – there’s no such thing as having too much starting pitching.
In an Ideal World…
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Call to the Pen
…the non-tender deadline would be in early January, somewhere around the arbitration filing deadline. By that point, most of the trading would be done, most of the free agent signings would be done, and teams pretty much know where they stand for the next year – including having a better handle on the status of injured players.
But it’s not an ideal world. Hart cannot wait it out to see if, for instance, Jon Lester really, really wants to be a Brave. He cannot count on Lester making a decision by then. He also cannot count on trying to sign another free agent by Tuesday to know whether he needs to take the $5.8 million dollar gamble on Kris Medlen‘s arm.
So – Force the Issue?
John Hart has three options:
- Tender one or both pitchers. Cost to the payroll: up to $7.25 million between the two (Beachy $1.45m)
- Non-tender both. That effectively frees up the entire $7.25 million.
- Force the issue – get a significant trade completed by Tuesday evening.
Mar 9, 2014; Fredi Gonzalez (33) accompanies injured starting pitcher Kris Medlen (54) off the field in spring training action at Tradition Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports
Unfortunately, forcing the issue carries its own risks, as his potential trade partners are still busily weighing their own options.
For example, Seattle is said to be interested in either Justin Upton or Evan Gattis. But they would also like to court Nelson Cruz. So their sense of urgency is a lot different from that of Atlanta. Now if Cruz were to sign elsewhere before Tuesday… then things would change. In a hurry. But this isn’t likely. Seattle isn’t ready to throw its best offer into the hat.
This biggest problem with forcing a trade comes in maximizing your return. Typically in a sellers market (which is what Hart happily has available to him), you wait out the market to get your best deal. The Heyward trade was an example of a team – St. Louis – that needed to get something done to the extent that they forced the issue themselves – making Atlanta an offer that could not be refused.
If such an event happens by Tuesday, then great: Hart would probably have enough information – and maybe another pitcher – to make an informed decision on the fates of Beachy and Medlen. But again: not likely.
Patience.. and Cash
It’s a tough call – and a tough business – but the John Collective (John Hart, John Coppolella) running the Braves needs to wait out the market here, which means non-tendering both Medlen and Beachy. I hate that because both are middle-of-the-rotation stalwarts…when healthy… and they’re great people.
Unfortunately, Beachy is in a very risky state – having had two back-to-back TJ surgeries. Medlen could be a little less risky, but probably won’t be ready to go any earlier than May. Nonetheless, it’s his second surgery, too.
But for a team fighting with the expenses of two bad contracts – Dan Uggla and BJ Upton – cash is King. Roughly $11 million has been saved from the Heyward/Walden trade. Another $7.25 million would be extremely helpful to the team.
Either way, Tuesday looms as a large day on the baseball calendar.