Black Friday Bargains for the Braves

Earlier today, I made an estimate on the current state of the Braves’ payroll/budget situation, estimating that they have something between 28 and 48 million dollars to spend this off-season.  That range assumes the departure of Evan Gattis and Justin Upton via trade and minimum-salaried players filling out the current holes on the 25-man roster.

So let’s see what holes would exist – and how we could fill them by using just $24 million… not even stretching the numbers.

What’s Missing?

Here’s the positions that need to be filled:

• Starting Left fielder
• Starting Right fielder
• Starting Second baseman
• Starting Pitcher
• Backup catcher
• 4th outfielder
• LH bench bat
• RH bench bat
• Utility 1
• Utility 2
• Long Reliever

Let’s start from the bottom.

LONG RELIEVER.  This position is probably best filled internally, and that by one of the following:  David Hale, Gus Schlosser, Aaron Northcraft, or Ian Thomas.  Budget impact:  none, as each would command the major league minimum.

STARTING SECOND BASEMAN.  Yes, I changed the order!  The reason for this is because Philip Gosselin could be the answer to this question as the season opens.  By June, though, the answer might change to Jose Peraza.  An external option:  Kelly Johnson.  Either way, these are still internal options:  no budget impact.

UTILITY 2.  Current candidate: Tyler Pastornicky.  He would also be useful as the late-inning pinch-runner replacement.  Depending on how he does during this stint in the majors, he could stick.  Otherwise Ramiro Pena could be recalled to perform this role – if his bat recovers at Gwinnett.  Budget impact:  none.

UTILITY 1.  Philip Gosselin once Jose Peraza becomes ready for the task.  Until then, we’ll draw names out of a batting helmet from among Pena, Pastornicky, Jose Constanza, and anybody else we can dig up.  Still no budget impact.

LH/RH bench bats, 4th Outfielder.  Again, we have internal choices here:  Joey Terdoslavich, newly acquired Zoilo Almonte, Constanza, or somebody from outside the organization.  At best, there’s no budget impact – at worst, we’re talking about a deal involving maybe $1 to $1.5 million.  Budget impact: possibly $1 million.

That was the easy part

Now it gets more complicated, but our premise today is based on bargains – players that the Braves could count on for modest production at reasonable prices.

David Ross: “Who, me?” Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

BACKUP CATCHER. David Ross, A.J. Pierzynski, Gerald Laird, John Buck.  This list is likely in order of preference, based on recent reports.  David Ross would be an ideal match to support Christian Bethancourt.  Budget impact: $1.5-$2 million extra.  Boston doubled his salary in 2013-14, but he’ll be 38 next year.  Pierzynski would be more expensive, but he’s also 38 and would be an option only if Rossie isn’t available.

STARTING PITCHER.  There’s actually a substantial list of pitchers available.  Given the rest of the rotation, I would expect that a veteran pitcher would be the choice to help mentor the “kids” we have.  Thus, the bargains available are…

• Brett Anderson*
• Chad Billingsley*
• Brandon Beachy*
• Gavin Floyd*
• Jason Hammel
• Aaron Harang
• Roberto Hernandez
• Josh Johnson*
• Kyle Kendrick
• Colby Lewis
• Justin Masterson
• Brandon McCarthy
• Kris Medlen*
• Joe Saunders
• Edinson Volquez

* – injury risks.

Live Feed

Call to the Pen

No, you probably

don’t

want some of these pitchers.  You will, of course, note that

four

Braves’ pitchers from 2014 are on the list:

but depending on the risk level that you’d want to incur

, any of them

could

be available – even they injured players that I assumed would be non-tendered.  If they would be willing to come back at a reduced rate, then their risks

could

be worth it, for certainly they are among the best performers on the whole list when healthy.

Budget impact:  anywhere from $3 million to a maximum of $8 million.

I would not go any higher than that on any of these.

STARTING RIGHT FIELDER.

• Nori Aoki
• Chris Denorfia
• Corey Hart
• Torii Hunter
• Nick Markakis
• Alex Rios

Most of these players have had similar recent seasons.  Markakis will be the most expensive, but he’s not demonstrably better.  Torii Hunter is amazing – he will be 40 next year and he still performs. Alex Rios has lost his power, but he still hits and gets on base… will steal a few, too.  Same for Aoki.  But we still will need a left fielder.  Budget impact:  $3 million to $14 million.

STARTING LEFT FIELDER.

• Chris Denorfia
• Jonny Gomes
• Scott Hairston
• Mike Morse
• Nolan Reimold

I left Nelson Cruz off this list, for somebody will throw money at him before this is all over.  The options are fewer here, with Morse being the best of the bunch unless you think others might bounce back to the state they were in way back in ____ (insert a single year of brilliance here).  As a result, this is a position where you would likely have to spend a bit, so I will call the budget impact:  $8 million (for Morse).

The Sum of all Fears

So let’s assemble a capable team and add up the estimated impact:

• Mike Morse:  $8 million
• Nori Aoki:  $3 million
• Jason Hammel (semi-random pitching name):  $7 million
• David Ross:  $2 million
• Third catcher (because Fredi likes that):  $2 million
• One more outside bat (unnamed):  $1 million

The total?  $23 million… within the parameters of this exercise.

But will that field a ‘competitive’ team?

The offense would hinge on these factors:

• Morse and Aoki’s hitting for average
• A rebound for Andrelton Simmons and Chris Johnson
• Second base production
• Some improvement from center field

Beyond that, the pitching is certainly there – so the Braves would likely be “in” most games.  But it would be a good start… and maybe a little better on offense than 2014 turned out to be.

DISCLAIMER:  Hart may be able to fill some of these needs via trades… and possibly with better performers, so please don’t think that I’m suggesting that these are either the best or the only options available.  This is the more-or-less worst-case scenario: that Atlanta would have to rebuild strictly via the free agent market.  I would actually expect some combination of trades and free agent signings to fill out the 2015 team.

Your mileage may vary – so let’s see your ideas!