Braves Budget/Payroll Update Entering December

Can They/Can They Not Afford _____?

There’s the big question – and honestly, most people just assume that with whatever name you put into that blank, the answer is “no”.  That’s simply because Atlanta has been careful with the funds ever since Ted Turner lost control of the team.

But it might be a little better this off-season than you’d think.

Ryan wrote about John Hart’s payroll comments a month ago – that we’re looking at something between $100 and $120 million.  The team was in the $111-115m range for 2014, so you’d think we’re already tight on funds, particularly with Dan Uggla‘s contract still hanging around their necks.

The Numbers, Please

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The trade sending

and

out to St. Louis helped the budget tremendously.  Over $10 million worth.  The rest of this will be a little iffy based on assumptions, but I’ll give you the minimum outcomes possible.

• Yesterday, I discussed the non-tender decisions coming up for Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen.  I do expect at least one of these players to be cut loose.  If both are, then that “saves” $7.25 million from 2015 estimates.
• There is widespread anticipation that both Evan Gattis and Justin Upton will be traded in the next month or so.  Gatis was making close to the major league minimum, but Justin is fetching $14.7 million.
• For most other (currently empty) player slots on the 25-man roster, I am using a major-league minimum salary of $510,000.
• I am using the arbitration estimates from the MLB Trade Rumors site to add up everything else.

If all of these events occur, the minimum possible payroll for the Braves would be at $72,078,000.  That figure is probably accurate to within roughly one half-percent (~$450,000 +/-).

Based on Hart’s declarations for the budget, that leaves the following (rounded figures):

• A minimum of $28 million
• A maximum of $48 million
• A midpoint of $38 million

(Corrected from earlier thanks to Ryan – I forgot to remove Justin’s salary)

That’s actually pretty good.  You can afford another starting pitcher and a couple of outfielders for that amount of money.  And probably a decent performing player or two, as well.

Future

If you’re in the camp with those who think that Jon Lester might be persuaded to take a little less this year to wait out a Braves team that might be more competitive next year and beyond, then you’ll want to see this about 2016:

• Dan Uggla comes off the books
• Justin Upton comes off – assuming he’s even still here this time next month.
• B.J. Upton‘s deal will increase to $15.45 million

The current obligations for 2016 thus stand at $55.25 million – but that’s only for those with existing contracts.  Mike Minor would likely bump that up by $8 million.  Add another $7-to-8 million for the minimum-salary players.  Still, that’s about $70-71 million, which is $15+ million better than today’s minimum-possible.

2017 projects to a higher number as Freddie Freeman‘s deal gets a huge boost (to $20m), and the other extended contracts go up by about $2 million apiece.  Thus the minimum for 2017 – assuming B.J. Upton is still with us – is over $90 million at this point.

There’s a lot that will likely change between now and then, though, so let’s concentrate on today… and later today, we’ll take a look at what even less that that $28 million might be able to purchase on the open market.