An Upton/Gattis Trade Primer
Twitter and any Braves forum/blog/fan page have all been buzzing since last evening when on the heels of a big trade featuring Josh Donaldson, rumors began to swirl that the Oakland Athletics would like to replace Donaldson’s power right-handed bat in their lineup with one or both of Evan Gattis and Justin Upton. Braves fans range from excited to confused about the possibilities of moving one or both players, so let’s take a look at what may be going on here:
Why trade Upton or Gattis now (or at all)?
In the offseason, hitting is at its highest trade value. During the season, pitching is at a premium. The reasons are varied, but the best explanation I’ve heard came from an interview with Pat Gillick I once listened to – hitting gets you to the postseason, but pitching wins in the postseason. In other words, while in the offseason, teams are building a roster to get to the postseason, those who are in the hunt at the trade deadline are always more highly valuing pitching for their postseason run. That’s why if the Braves are looking to actively shop Gattis and/or Upton, this is the time to do it.
As discussed by TT’s Alan Carpenter in his review of the Yasmani Tomas signing, right handed power is a very valuable item on the trade market with Upton and Gattis two of the biggest names that are rumored to be available, along with Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Kemp. Either player would have numerous suitors with their high-end power from the RH side of the plate.
What value would teams have in Upton and Gattis?
There are many naysayers who are questioning the ability of the Braves to get much of a trade package in return for either Upton or Gattis, but there are pretty obvious reasons why each would be highly desired.
Justin Upton is 27 years old, yet he has 8 seasons under his belt already, and he will be a free agent after 2015. While his experience in left field hasn’t been great defensively, Upton had a good reputation defensively in right field when he was in Arizona as an average defender who had an above-average arm. He’s produced 162 home runs since his first full season in the majors in 2008, in spite of never hitting more than 31 in a single season. Upton is a much better athlete than many give him credit for, and his baserunning has led to 96 career stolen bases to go with his power. He is a “rental” player as he’s only signed through 2015, which could affect his trade value.
Evan Gattis is 28 years old, and he was a late bloomer due to taking some time away from the game between high school and college. He was the primary Braves catcher in 2014, but he did play some outfield in 2013, and his massive size (6’4, 260 muscular pounds) lead many to think his long-term position is out from behind the plate. In fact, multiple Braves beat writers in radio interviews this offseason have stated that the Braves are not in search of simply a backup catcher, but someone who could play full time if Christian Bethancourt isn’t ready, which signals that the Braves see Gattis in the outfield, most likely left field, in 2015 if he remains a Brave. Gattis has averaged 33 home runs per 600 PA (a typical full season for an outfielder) in his short career, even with the wear and tear the catching position has on the body. A big part of Gattis’ value on the trade market is his big bat paired with 4 years of remaining team control due to Gattis still not even being arbitration-eligible.
What teams would likely be involved for Upton/Gattis, and what would they have to offer?
The big name out there right now is Oakland. Having just traded Donaldson, they’re hitting the trade market hard right now with rumors pairing the A’s with many teams involving multiple different players. The Oakland farm system isn’t bare, but it’s significantly lessened after going after the 2014 postseason heavily with a number of trades. Their best prospects are a 1B in Matt Olson and two shortstops in Daniel Robertson and recently-acquired Franklin Barreto. They have two intriguing 3B prospects in Renato Nunez and Matt Chapman, but the Braves will most likely be looking for arms from Oakland. The Athletics currently sport a significant depth of starting-calibar pitchers on their team, including two acquired in the Donaldson deal. The Braves could make a move involving Jeff Samardzija and Justin Upton as the main pieces as both are free agents after the season, but most likely the Braves will want more team control than that. That makes Sonny Gray the very obvious top target, and a guy who should be the type of return the team expects when moving Gattis in the current market. Other possible arms the Braves will look at strongly are lefty Drew Pomeranz, righty A.J. Griffin, and lefty prospect Dillon Overton. The A’s could also use John Jaso in a deal with the Braves as one of the catchers the Braves are looking to acquire this offseason.
The Seattle Mariners have been mentioned often in relation to Justin Upton, and they’re certainly an interesting trade partner as they have a couple high-end arms and some outfielders that could be involved in a deal to take the place of Upton after he’s traded. The big name is obviously Taijuan Walker, though there are conflicting reports about how available he truly would be. Most of the rumors circle around James Paxton and one or both of James Jones and Michael Saunders. The Braves could be interested in Mariners 3B prospect D.J. Peterson if he was available or outfield prospect Austin Wilson, who could be a tremendous find after dropping in the draft due to an injury his last season at Stanford, but this is most likely a team where the deal would include primarily major league players.
Texas is another team that has stepped up with interest in both Gattis and Upton, making them the third of the AL West teams to make serious inquiries. Interestingly, there have not been significant inquiries from other AL divisions (though the Orioles may have some serious interest if they cannot re-sign Nelson Cruz). The Rangers present a very solid match for the Braves in both prospects and major league players. The Braves could pursue former super-prospect Jurickson Profar as he returns from injury or Rougned Odor to secure their 2B position going into the season and give Jose Peraza another year to get his feet set under him. The Rangers could also move 3B prospect Joey Gallo, C prospect Jorge Alfaro, or OF prospects Nick Williams, Lewis Brinson, or Nomar Mazara. The Rangers also offer good depth in minor league pitching for a deal as well with righties Luke Jackson, Alex Gonzalez, and Jake Thompson. They are also possibly looking for another starter, and Mike Minor‘s name has been mentioned as a possible deal.
While it’s probably best that the Braves look mostly at AL teams to move one or both of Upton and Gattis, they’ll likely get some significant inquiries from NL teams as well. Usually trading within your league allows you to ask for more, and the Braves should certainly require that to move either player within the NL. The only team with serious rumored interest in the NL so far has been the San Francisco Giants. The Braves would likely be getting arms, arms, and nothing but arms in a deal with the Giants, and likely they’d be minor league arms. The Giants’ system is near-bare in position prospects, but an intriguing angle with a move with the Giants could be acquiring prospect Andrew Susac. That would be a sure sign that the Braves have soured on Bethancourt as a full-time catcher in the near future, but Susac brings a lot of similarities to former Braves catcher Javy Lopez. The Giants could pair Susac with their pitching prospects, like righties Kyle Crick, Tyler Beede, and Keury Mella and lefties Adalberto Mejia and Ty Blach.
So what should we expect?
While it would be a very interesting move to trade both Upton and Gattis this offseason, depending on the return, it could actually improve the team in the short- and long-term by opening up money and positions on the team. As has happened often lately in big signings, there could be a “mystery” team that comes forward in the end to blow others away. My prediction on the teams that could be a “mystery” team would be either Chicago team or the Houston Astros.