Braves Trade Targets Should Be Talent Not Hype
By Fred Owens
The hot stove is starting to look like a pressure cooker in Atlanta Braves and Oakland’s mega move with the Jays’s stoked the fire. Reports we’ve already discussed here (links below) are generating most of the heat. Some fans want to see the Braves trade for the hottest prospect but is the most hyped player always the right fit? Two years ago I drug out the hype-buster 64000 (patent not pending) to clear the air and look at the facts.
Huge Atlanta / Oakland Trade may be imminent
Oakland / Braves Trade, is there a match?
Let’s trade for <insert hyped name> he’s the guy!
Today I’m talking about everyday players, it’s different for pitchers. With that in mind let me stress at the outset that all these players are talented or they wouldn’t be highly rated. Every highly rated player isn’t however, a fit for every team. In the NL – as it should be everywhere – three things should be top considerations when trading for a player.
- Do you have a position that player can play well enough to provide more offense (runs) than his defense gives up?
- Is the player’s offense balanced and consistent enough across the spectrum – BA/OBP/SLG – to be dependable?
- Is the player a good guy? No team needs a sulky, pouting, angry, anti-social jerk in their clubhouse. The good news is the best players are usually also good guys.
Teams like the Braves need players with at least three of the five tools; hit for average, hit for power, speed, defense and arm accuracy/strength. Specifically they have to be able to play a position well enough not to be a black hole in the field.
Big fish small pond
As I go through this keep in mind is that a top ten position in one team’s prospect list does not equate to a similar spot in another team’s list. When the Braves acquired Tyrell Jenkins he was in the lower half of the Cardinals top 20 prospects. Now he’s in the Braves top ten. With few exceptions for really special players, a team’s prospect list is first and foremost about the depth of their minor league system.
Most Braves fans think we need a hot third base prospect. Kyle Kubitza is our current guy he’s currently our # 12 prospect according to MLB pipeline. Kyle has had some fielding issues – that’s a fairly common complaint these days – but has hit well. Still in every trade rumor a third base prospect is bound to be discussed so let’s start by examining two names I’ve heard suggest lately.
D. J. Peterson – Seattle #2 Prospect (MLB Pipeline)
Peterson was the twelfth overall in the 2013 draft and generally considered the best hitting prospect in that draft. His .299/.362/552/.914 slash shows that bat has not disappointed so far. He is nominally a third baseman. Here’s what the various scouting reports say about that.
"“. . . Peterson most likely will shift across the diamond to first base at some point, as he did at New Mexico in 2013. His arm is strong enough to play third base, but he lacks the range and footwork necessary for the position. He is a below-average runner. . . “ (Baseball America after the 2013 season.)“. . . Peterson is a hard-hitting third baseman who may end up at first or a corner outfield spot in the future. (Based on the shortage of quality 1B prospects, he seems most likely to wind up there eventually) Scouting the Book“ . . .Defense is the biggest question mark for Peterson, and unfortunately is also what can have the most impact on his value for fantasy owners. He has the arm to play third base, but that’s about all. He is viewed as having both below-average range as well as below-average reactions at the hot corner, and a move to first base or a corner outfield spot are extremely likely . . .Jason Hunt (SB Nation)"
"“Peterson has been absolutely dominant in the minors this season, and was rewarded with an appearance in Sunday’s All-Star Futures Game, where he was 1-2 with a double. Could he be the M’s answer at first base?” Stephen Cohen Seattle PI"
Summary: D.J Peterson can hit and probably play first base. He’s not a major league third baseman and is too slow for the outfield. Do the Braves have a spot for that guy?
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Joey Gallo – Rangers # 1 Prospect (MLB Pipeline)
Gallo is simply awesome to watch at the plate. Scouts give him an 80 on the 20-80 scale for raw power. He hits BIG fly balls and showed that in the futures game. His batting practice makes people stop and watch; think Josh Hamilton home run derby. His third base defense is payable at the major league level.
"Defensively, Gallo has a chance to be an average third baseman. Blessed with a 70 arm, he can make all of the throws expected of a big league third baseman. His reactions and athleticism are also positives. Additional size will cause Gallo to slow down, limiting his range and wrecking the defensive profile. Already a below-average runner, Joey Gallo settles in as a 30 runner at full physical development. Spencer Schneier RotoScouting"
He has power and he can play third okay but when he’s not hitting home runs he’s striking out in a way that would make even Dan Uggla say “Dude come on!” In the same post Schneier closes with this.
"Gallo will have to make major improvements to his hit tool in order for the power to translate, however, which is easier said than done. The name that comes to mind as a comparison to Gallo in terms of future production (not tools) is Mark Reynolds."
So how bad is it really? In three years of rookie minor league ball Gallo’s hit 104 home runs and struck out 429 times in 1264PA, a 33.9% K rate. That’s in leagues where breaking balls are generally a myth and fastballs the rule.
In 2014 (his only AA season) Gallo posted a .232/334/.524/.858 slash with 21 homers and 10 doubles in 291PA. He also struck out 115 times (39.5%) and walked 36. He just turned 21 a few days ago and has time to change his ways at the plate; but can he?
Historically the answer is no, not significantly. Teams and fans however live in hope and a power prospect like Gallo will get the time to figure it out. However if I’m trading for a third base prospect and want reasonable certainty that will be ready in 2017 I’ll look somewhere else; like back in Seattle.
Patrick Kivlehan
The folks over at Lookout Landing have a very nice write up on Kivlehan. I suggest you read that for detail and context. I’ll just quote a bit here and there to provide an overview.
Kivlehan played football in college and was pretty good. After the 2011 football season ended he wanted to keep playing something so tried out as a walk on for the Rutgers baseball team. He made the team and was what I’d call successful
"As a walk-on, Kivlehan won the Big East Player of the Year Award. Not only that, but he was the first player in the history of the league to win its Triple Crown. If rate stats are more your thing, he led the conference in average, on-base percentage and slugging as well. Now, it isn’t the most prestigious conference for baseball, but recent Big East POYs include George Springer and Todd Frazier."
The 6’2” 210lb Kivlehan hits the ball to all fields and there was some question whether he’d develop power. That development is still in progress but the progress is impressive. Watch this. . . in full screen mode. . . no really full screen. . . trust me. . .you need to watch this.
<I’ll pause while you watch and then say – REALLY! Why haven’t I heard of him>
That my friends is what Chipper would call Mammo. Okay it was on the inner half, mid-thigh but you still have to hit the dang thing. If I were his hitting coach I’d say his power is developing and will continue to do so. Then I’d chuckle. . .
Kivlehan is still learning to intricacies of hitting but is a quick study. When he first tried out at Rutgers he was hitting the ball up the middle and to left. His coach walked over and suggested that he let the ball get deeper and hit it to all fields. A short while later he was and he continues to do it as this graph from MLBFarm.com shows.
Kivlehan is a work in progress at third base too – he played no baseball after high school until that walk on his senior year – but is a quick learner and a superior athlete so he could still do that. Even if he doesn’t he can easily transition to the outfield unlike the more highly rated Peterson. Considering he has one season of college ball and three minor league seasons, he’s come a long way quickly.
At Jackson (AA) last year he put up a .300/.374/.485/.860 slash in 431PA with 11 homers 23 doubles and 7 triples while driving in 68 runs and scoring 60. He struck out just 78 times while walking 44 times. That adds up to a140 wRC+ season for the Generals with a 10.2 % walk rate and an18.1 % K rate. If you ask me to choose between want Peterson, Gallo, or Kivlehan there’s no doubt in my mind Kivlehan is the choice.
Surrendering to hype is costly
The point of this is not that the experts are wrong. Rather it’s that the experts work on a set of criteria that is not directly related to team needs. The media gets those lists and when a trade is rumored they assume that a every team reads the list they way they do; out of context. Soon the hype is drowning out the facts. The media push convinces the fans that this player is THE one.
The drumbeat begins for that player – let’s say Gallo – because “boy can he hit big flies” and “he’s atop prospect and must be major league ready because all I hear is his name on TV and radio” and. . .and. . .and. . .we just have to have him please – please – please. . . Fans aren’t the only ones to get stars in their eyes listening to the siren song of hype, owners and GMs get caught up in the hype machine too. (See also Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford.
That’s A Wrap
When building a trade I look at the fit rather than the rank of a player in another team’s prospect list and I hope the front office does the same. The “gaping hole” in our pitching John Hart seeks to fill exists and needs to be filled. However, if you look at our minor league everyday player depth the gap is as wide as the Grand Canyon. We should certainly continue to add quality arms but we also need to pick good, near major league ready every day players as well.
Everyday players are far more projectable than pitchers ( TINSTAAPP) and when you there’s a chance to get for example Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero or Austin Wilson to fill a hole in the system every effort should be made to do that rather than walking away or being negotiated down to a lesser pitcher simply because Taijuan Walker isn’t available. It all comes down to trading for talent that fits not hype.