Selling BJ Upton: the Package Deal

After news of this broke yesterday (mentioned in today’s Morning Chop)  The Atlanta Braves tried yet another trading partner in an attempt to unload B.J. Upton – or more specifically, to unload his contract.

The Astros

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Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday

that the Houston Astros were working on a deal that would swap

and

… if the Astros were to take

.  Other players would have been involved – apparently a pitching prospect was involved, plus the Braves were asking about catcher

.  But it was the Upton part that was a showstopper for Houston, particularly given that is would have raised their payroll substantially.

How substantially?  That’s actually an interesting question:  Rosenthal put the number at $39 million, but that was based on Fowler’s 2015 salary ($7.35m) vs. the entire rest of Upton’s contract ($46.35m).  Fowler is a free agent after 2015, so Houston faces the possibility of either having to extend Fowler or finding another solution (which would cost them at least $1m for 2016-17).  So the fact is:  they can’t tell you what the actual differential, but it would be no more than $38 million over 3 years.

Nonetheless, Houston’s payroll was at $50.5 million in 2014, a number that would make B.J.’s $14.45m stand out like a beacon (though that team spent over $100 million in salaries in 2009).

The Cubs

Mike Minor. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

We have reported numerous times of the rumored Summer deal between the Cubs and Braves that might have put B.J. together with Mike Minor in exchange for taking on Edwin Jackson‘s deal.  Conflicting reports exist on exactly which side balked, but obviously that trade failed to materialize as well.

So there are two known attempts to create a “package” deal that have failed in that past few months.  That now leads to the question:  is this the correct approach?

The Options

If you truly want to move B.J. Upton off the roster (yes, I believe that’s the objective here), then here is the list of your available options:

• (1) A standard value-for-value trade.  That’s not going to happen here.
• (2) A swap of bad contracts.  That was what the Braves attempted to do with the Cubs… with a slight nod toward the package deal, given that another (significant) player was involved.
• (3) The package deal.  This was the Houston scenario:  a premium player bundled with Upton.  This is the way your cable company markets its services… except that you usually want all of those services.
• (4) The salary dump.  This is how the Braves rid themselves of the Derek Lowe contract:  $10 million to Cleveland; they picked up $5 million of his contract.
• (5) Release him.  Sounds nice and clean – since it’s not your money involved.  As long as the Braves held out on Dan Uggla‘s release, you can figure they’ll wait even longer before doing that with B.J. – there’s over twice as much money involved.  I can see Atlanta eating one year of his deal via a release:  definitely not three.

So it’s really only options 2-4 in play at all… and likely not #5 at all for another 2 years.

Do Salary Dumps/Bad Contract Swaps Work?

It’s actually difficult to find real-life examples, but here are a few:

• July 26, 2013:  Alfonso Soriano from the Cubs to the Yankees.  Cubs send cash and get back Corey Black – a RHP drafted in the 4th round of 2012.  The Cubs sent $17.7 million of the remaining $24.5 million on Soriano’s contract.
• August 26, 2012.  Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett of the Red Sox (along with $11 million) traded to the Dodgers for James Loney, Allen Webster, Ivan De Jesus, pitcher Rubby De La Rosa, and Jerry Sands (the latter pair being PTBNL).  This was another salary dump deal.
• January 24, 2011.  Vernon Wells traded to the Angels from the Blue Jays.  The Jays got Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  Somehow, the Jays rid themselves of Wells’ entire deal, though absorbed $10.5m from the Angels’ players (almost half of Wells’ annual requirement).
• February 16, 2004.  Alex Rodriguez going from the Rangers to the Yankees.  $67 million was sent with him over several years.  That’s the largest amount of cash I have found to be involved in a salary dump deal – or any deal, for that matter.  But then again, his was the largest contract in baseball, and remained so for at roughly the next decade.

This might be the best example:

• Mike Hampton – he was signed by the Rockies for 8 years and $121 million (in the year 2000!).  But in 2002, the Rockies managed to ship him to the Marlins with Juan Pierre in exchange for 4 players, but notably outfielder Preston Wilson and catcher Charles Johnson.  The Rockies picked up $44 million in salary owed to that pair.  They also continued to pay for Hampton’s deferred signing bonus (which sounds like an oxymoron) of $19 million plus interest, his $6 million option buyout for 2009, and $6.5 million of salary from 2003-2005.  Overall, that was $31.5 million distributed over the next 3-ish years, plus interest.
• Two days later, Mike Hampton became a Brave.  The Marlins got Tim Spoonybarger, but also had to send cash to Atlanta.  The Braves only had to pay Hampton $2m/$2m/$1.5m (2003-2005) and then $13.5/$14.5m/$15m for 2006-2008.  So three teams ended up sending him paychecks for quite a while – and due to durability issues, Hampton often was pitching for none of them.

So… it’s rare, but it happens.

What is Best for Atlanta?

Several open questions will persist:

• Should the Braves take less for Gattis – just so that they can rid themselves of Upton’s contract?
• Should they deal Gattis (or even brother Justin) in separate deals to maximize the return?
• Should John Hart pursue the straight-up bad contract deal?
• (right now, I don’t expect a salary dump deal… not this year)

There are some clubs that could use outfielders and/or a center fielder:

• Seattle (Austin Jackson was bad for them in 2014; a free agent after 2015, and projects to make $8 million this year);
• the Cubs (maybe)
• the Astros (if they opt to deal Fowler)
• the Orioles need two outfielders and have a bad contract to unload (Ubaldo Jimenez).  Not re-signing Nick Markakis could help our cause… slightly.
• the Indians have two bad contracts (Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn).
• the Blue Jays need to replace Colby Rasmus

But of course, no one has opted to accept B.J. – yet.

We want your input:  how do you think should Atlanta proceed?  If you have ideas, then let’s hear them!