The Braves’ Nick Markakis: Assessing his Signing

I have been trying to look at the signing of Nick Markakis as part of a bigger picture of things for this off-season.  In particular,  you could now encapsulate recent events as follows:

The Braves traded Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for pitcher Shelby Miller, pitcher Tyrell Jenkins, free agent reliever Jim Johnson and free agent outfielder Nick Markakis.

On balance, this isn’t a bad way to view it, and indeed, it is possible that the big “win” from all of this will be the pitchers involved – all of them.

But I’m really struggling with the part about Nick Markakis.

About the Heyward Angle

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In the past couple of weeks, I have come to terms with the decision to trade Jason Heyward.

In short, the handwriting was on the wall.

There were two scenarios that could have played out:

• Jason has a big year, finally justifies his value, and is lost to free agency as he signs a $200m deal with… somebody else, since that’s above the Atlanta pay grade
• Jason has another middling year, and the Braves have to let him go after wrestling about both his future value and the concern about whether a long-term deal is appropriate at all.

So John Hart is offered a stout deal for Heyward and Walden – and he took it, knowing that it also gave him cash to work with so that he could pursue replacements.  Okay, that’s fine – I get that.

So having rolled the dice on a new setup man – Jim Johnson, a risky move that could pay off big – now we need a new right fielder.

I’m not the only one with concerns

Grant Brisbee has been fairly outspoken on him, ever since his Giants supposedly became interested in Markakis:

Mike Petriello, writing for Fangraphs.com asked “What are we missing about Nick Markakis?“, investigated his entire game:

• His defense (yes, he has a Gold Glove – but don’t be fooled by that).  Not great – essentially average at this point.  This includes reports of a weaker arm.  Don’t expect a lot of runners to pause at second base on their way to third.
• His hitting, part 1.  Batted ball distances are down by 30 feet on average since 2009.
• His hitting, part 2.  He’s hit 37 home runs in the last 3 seasons, 23 at Camden Yards… a park Mike declares “caters … well to lefties.”
• His total offensive production.  2.4 fWAR in 2013-14 with a wRC+ (weighted/scaled Runs Creation rating) of 97.  That’s below average.

His conclusion?  We aren’t missing anything:  Markakis is somehow worth a multi-year deal at age 31, yet does not separate himself from the pack of other readily available outfielders… including Colby Rasmus (2013-14 wRC+ 117) and Nori Aoki (wRC+ 96).

Thinking Positively

There are some reasons I like this signing:

• Consistency.  Lowest batting average in career was .271 (2013).  Highest .306 (2008).
• OBP.  Career .358 rate. 9% walk rate.
• Just a 13% strikeout rate… and less than 12% every year since 2010.
• Durability.  Only one season since 2006 has he played in under 155 games.
• Veteran leadership, clubhouse presence both said to be excellent.  Clearly that is needed in Atlanta (you may wish to check Adam Jones twitter timeline, as he was clearly not happy to lose his teammate)

It’s also a better deal for Atlanta than expected, perhaps:  $11 million per year for 4 years.  Some had suggested as much as a 4×13 deal ($52m; ESPN’s Jim Bowden).

But beyond that, it’s fairly clear that Markakis’ performance ceiling at this point in his life/career is essentially the same as Jason Heyward’s “floor”.  Markakis will be consistent… though likely trending slowly downwards.  And that’s probably all we should expect.

The Other Options

Nori Aoki. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve mentioned Nori Aoki a few times:  he is actually older, though also cheaper and would not command a 4 year deal.  In terms of performance, he’s the equal of Markakis.  He’s also not going to provide the kind of veteran leadership you might want.

Colby Rasmus is also out there – he’d perhaps allow B.J. Upton to be moved to left field and is probably a little better overall in terms of performance, though markedly inconsistent at the plate.

I won’t bore you with the rest of the list… it’s pretty uninspiring.  The fangraphs link had most of that if you’re interested.

Thus Nick Markakis is not going to knock your socks off, but he’s probably worth the deal he got and should provide steady, unspectacular performance on both sides of the ball.  I’m not terribly comfortable with the contract length or the price, though both were probably necessary to get the best non-trade option available (and I believe that one of the goals here was to avoid messing with the farm).  And, as noted, we got solid pitchers in the Grand Scheme of Things.

So I will attempt to look at Nick with glasses that are not comparing him with Jason Heyward.  He’s not Jason Heyward – he’s Nick Markakis.  And now he’s our Nick Markakis.

And things could be worse:  after all, Evan Gattis could be playing left field.