Rebut to a Rant: Madden on John Hart

With a hat tip to TomahawkTake’s Fred Owens, it seems that not everyone is on board with the transformations that John Hart has performed thus far on the Atlanta Braves.

Bill Madden writes for the New York Daily News and on Saturday he penned a long, stream-of-consciousness bit on the Orioles, the Winter Meetings, and finally – John Hart and the Braves.  Given that many of you out there could share some of the same opinions, it seemed appropriate to address his remarks.

"Does anyone know what John Hart is doing with the Braves? Does John Hart know what he’s doing? When he took over as Atlanta GM after the season, Hart intimated the Braves were going into a bit of an austerity mode, trading away Jason Heyward because they didn’t think they could afford him after next year. But then last week, Hart signs Markakis — a declining and inferior player to Heyward who is going to need surgery for a bulging disc in his neck — for four years, $45 million to replace him in right field, and also gives a guaranteed $1.6 million to Jim Johnson, unquestionably the worst reliever in baseball last year with a 7.14 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. Said one veteran scout: “The Markakis sign made no sense, especially in light of his neck problem, and the Johnson sign even less. For me, Johnson’s a ‘make good’ spring training invite.”"

Let’s Break it Down, 1-2-3

• ONE: Hart intimated the Braves were going into a bit of an austerity mode, trading away Jason Heyward because they didn’t think they could afford him after next year.

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That may be what Bill inferred, but that’s not at all what was said.  In fact,

Hart was fairly open with an early statement

that the Braves’ payroll for 2015 would be in the $100-120m range… numbers we’ve been using here as a guideline.  That’s not austerity – not nearly so.  Furthermore, if that were the goal, then you would have seen multiple trades that would only be described as “salary dumps.”

The Heyward situation reflects the problem in philosophies:  the Braves couldn’t figure out if Jason will ever be ‘that’ breakout player.  Frank Wren, in an interview on XM Radio this morning, confessed that they effectively bridged time with the 2 year deal last year in an effort to stall and see if they could figure that out.

It was pretty clear that Jason and the Braves were looking at his potential very differently. But with contracts blowing up as they were (see Giancarlo Stanton, et al), the Braves faced a dilemma:  if Heyward broke out this year, he would be utterly unaffordable.  If he didn’t, then – as a free agent – they would have no leverage to retain him anyway.  The argument over value would still remain, and they’d lose him for nothing back.

Getting Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins was huge.  And it takes all of that consternation over Heyward’s value out of play.  It was an offer that could not be refused.  But to characterize the deal as an austerity play is simply wrong.  The word to use is “value.”

[Hint:  the Braves are about to do the same thing with Justin Upton]

• TWO: But then last week, Hart signs Markakis — a declining and inferior player to Heyward who is going to need surgery for a bulging disc in his neck — for four years, $45 million to replace him in right field…

What we’ve learned since the signing is that Nick Markakis has been battling the disc problem since March 2013.

Could that have accounted for his “declining” performance over 2013-2014?  Yes. 

Is there a guarantee that surgery will return him to 2012 form?  Nope… but in the Braves’ thinking, clearly they are encouraging the move under the hope that he will improve.

With the disclaimer that I’ve been squishy on this signing myself (while also acknowledging that Markakis was the best-available free agent option).  But what this contract does is establish several advantages for Atlanta:

• Cost-certainty.  No balloon deal for a $15-20 million player for at least 4 years.  $11 million per year is actually very good, and it doesn’t take an actuarian to figure out the risk-reward aspects of this.
• Clubhouse presence.  Should be a big help to a team sorely needing that in 2014.
• Consistent performance.  If you buy that Markakis’ ‘down’ years in 2013-14 were due to the neck, then his batting average ranged from .284 to .306 between 2006 to 2012.  Even adding in 2013-14, the minimum falls only to .271.
• He’ll be near the top of the lineup – replacing Jason Heyward in both performance (nearly so) and in position.

By the way, this signing also debunks the ‘austerity’ argument.

• THREE: …also gives a guaranteed $1.6 million to Jim Johnson, unquestionably the worst reliever in baseball last year with a 7.14 ERA and 1.95 WHIP

Really?  You’re concerned about a $1.6 million investment?  Heck, that’s a blip on the radar screen given that this team is still paying for Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton.

Sure, it’s a dice roll.  But here’s a sinkerball pitcher who gets to work with a sinkerball pitching coach (Roger McDowell) to resurrect his 101-saves-in-2-years stuff… in a new league that hasn’t seen much of that stuff yet.

This is a “so what?” deal.  If it works, Hart is a genius and he’s replaced Jordan Walden.  If it fails, Hart already has internal backup options.  It’s truly a no-lose deal.

Seriously of all things to criticize, this isn’t one of them.  Even if you think the money is too steep (I don’t), then it’s very likely that other teams were inquiring since others also recognized the bounce-back potential there.

The Bigger Picture

There will be more trades and signings coming.  They may be happening even now, for all we know.  But in the full scale, Hart has already done the following:

• Improved the scouting department vastly
• Added 3 international signing slots
• Added a top 5 prospect in Arodys Vizcaino
• Added a top 5 prospect in Tyrell Jenkins
• Added a middle-of-the-rotation controllable pitcher in Shelby Miller
• Added an elite closer seeking a bounce-back year in Jim Johnson
• Added an above average RF in Nick Markakis at a solid price
• Traded away Jason Heyward – whose value could not be agreed upon
• Traded away Jordan Walden – who was getting expensive
• Traded away Tommy La Stella – who was about to be squeezed out of a position

That’s what Hart is doing:  he’s rebuilding the team, the farm, and the future… in incremental ways.

Full speed ahead.