Winter Meetings: Braves Changing Strategies?

Two significant pieces of news came in late last night:  here’s the first one…

"MLBTR.COM – The Braves are now packaging Justin Upton and Chris Johnson in trade talks with teams, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter)."

>> This by itself was a bit comical, since Nightengale mistakenly cited Kelly Johnson instead of CJ – an error actually repeated without anyone even flinching on the MLB Network.

But the bigger picture is more eye-opening:  practically no one on the roster is “safe.”  Other names were emerging as well:  Tyler Pastornicky and Anthony Varvaro specifically.

The question I have involves why Johnson is being “packaged” with Upton.  After all…

• There are limited numbers of clubs that could absorb nearly $21m of salary ($14.7m for Upton; $6m for Johnson – plus Johnson is up for an additional $16.5m for 2016-2017).
• There are a limited number of clubs in need of both an outfielder and a third baseman.  At the moment, I believe that list consists of Houston, San Francisco, and San Diego.  You might include the Indians, except that they are on Justin’s no-trade list.
• This would specifically exclude Seattle (they are unwilling to budge on using Taijuan Walker).
• This would also exclude Texas unless they sent Adrian Beltre back in Atlanta’s direction… which would be silly for Atlanta since Beltre gets $18 million this year and could vest into another $16m for 2016.

I’m also not certain about dealing Johnson without a strategy for filling third base… unless you like Jed Lowrie – who is essentially CJ’s equal in almost every way.

(You just gotta love the conflicting information you get from these events:  David O’Brien just tweeted that he’s been told there has been no “packaging” arrangement with Johnson and Upton.  Okay, whatever… though as suggested above, his information does make better logical sense)

Part 2 – Evan Gattis

The next, bigger question revolves around Evan Gattis.  I have been operating under the belief that there’s no-way/no-how that he ends up roaming in Left Field for the Braves in 2015.  We’ve talked about this – at length.  A lot.  Several of us.

In short, he’s too valuable a trade commodity to keep and most likely too much of a defensive liability to play – at least in left field.  So naturally…

"MLBTR.COM last evening:  6:43pm: The Braves are not looking to trade Gattis, O’Brien reiterates (via Twitter). For a deal to happen, “a team would have to blow their doors off.” It’s unclear what would constitute that level of offer, but a package with more than one of the below prospects would seem to fit the bill."

Those prospects include several of the names we’ve mentioned:  RHP pitcher Jake Thompson (especially), Alex Gonzalez (not Sea Bass – this is another top RHP), and/or outfielder Nomar Mazara.  Texas is not willing to send these guys over for Justin Upton, but they might – and should – for Gattis.

But the rumblings I am hearing suggest that moving Gattis might mark the tipping point between a “reloading” and “rebuilding” year.  The sentiment among the Braves’ executives may be that they cannot acquire the offense necessary to compete if both Justin Upton and Gattis are dealt.  Hence the reluctance to deal Gattis.

My Take

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Frankly, I believe we are already past that tipping point.

has been dealt.  I still expect that Justin Upton

will

be dealt … somewhere (despite the new report below).  We saw in September what happens when you lose Gattis while others are flailing:  if

and

are both swatting flies, then teams simply pitch around the hitters that remain.  So you may as well go ahead and “sell high” on him, too.

Evan Gattis in LF is a bad option.  A better option would be this:

• Trade Gattis and get a nice package of players back in return.  The market is absolutely ripe for doing so this year.
• Keep Justin Upton… unless you’re blown away by a deal, keep him for offense in 2015 and pocket the compensation draft pick in 2016.
• Acquire a competent innings-eating veteran pitcher – Justin Masterson, perhaps – to fill out the rotation.  This group of pitchers will be good enough to keep the Braves closely competitive in most games.
• The offense – led by Upton, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis – should be decent enough… especially if Simmons and Johnson can bounce back a bit.  Even another 10% improvement from B.J. Upton would be welcomed.
• If they are given an offer-not-to-be-refused for Justin, then so be it:  take it.  But don’t keep Gattis just because you think you have to.

But right now, it seems that the Braves’ brass are still trying to figure out what to do… and this new report from Ken Rosenthal doesn’t change that opinion:

That’s nice, but there’s no place to play all of those guys at the same time.
We will have another Live Thread to keep up with the shifting landscape throughout the day.