Bowman thinks Justin Upton Will Be A Padre

It’s just one opinion, but it’s from someone who doesn’t usually offer his view that often.

This comment repeats and extends upon a remark about the Padres (along with the Orioles and Rangers) showing “interest” in Justin Upton that MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported on December 8th. Let’s now also add these remarks from David O’Brien, both recent and a bit older:

Making Sense of it All

I admit it:  I hear these San Diego rumors and I am left puzzled.  Yes, Matt Kemp is now theirs for five years, so it would make sense to build up a competitive team around him.  But Justin Upton is a one-year bat, and even in the most optimistic scenario (which can’t be too lofty, given the division they play in), the Padres still would be looking at third place in 2015.

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Raising Zona

The Padres jumped their payroll up to $90.6 million in 2014 from $68.3 million in 2013.  They are no longer paying

($10.5 m) or

($8 m) or

($7 m)… just to name 3.  Their obligations to Kemp are “only” $15 million, so they can certainly afford to take on some additional salary for 2015.  Currently obligations stand at $55.5m before arbitration number come in.

Perhaps they are looking to sell more tickets.  Perhaps they figure Justin Upton means an extra draft pick in 2016.  Perhaps his presence – along with Kemp – might draw a couple more useful free agents to Southern California.  Perhaps they see a window of opportunity that they can exploit.  Perhaps their new management wants to make a splash (they already did).  Regardless, the rumor of their interest continues to persist.

So How Would This Work?

Sep 10, 2014; San Diego Padres third baseman

(27). Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s offer a couple of sample trade ideas to help out everybody involved (it’s just one of the services we provide here):

TRADE 1:  SIMPLE, STRAIGHT-FORWARD

• PADRES receive Justin Upton
• BRAVES receive Tyson Ross (3 years before free agency)

I personally think this return is a little “light” for Atlanta – others may disagree.  Would like to see Matt Wisler added (see below for more on that).

TRADE 2:  MORE INTERESTING

• PADRES receive Justin Upton and 3B Chris Johnson, and $5 million [error corrected]
• BRAVES receive Tyson Ross, Yangervis Solarte, Matt Wisler

What?  Solarte?  There’s some really good reasons why I put him on this trade:

• The Yankees picked him up from his original club, the Twins in 2014.  That means George Blakeley knows a bit about him.
• He’s another one of these “contact hitter” guys – often walking as much as he strikes out.  We seem to be stockpiling them lately.
• He’s a little older (27-1/2) buy also very controllable (arbitration starts in 2017).

Other possible options:  Seth Smith is a platoon candidate for somebody in the outfield.  I’m not crazy about Carlos Quentin, but surely if the Padres went for Kemp and Justin, they would want to move him out (they wouldn’t want three bad outfielders out there in that big park, right?).

Andrew Cashner should be also in the mix:  however, he has just 2 years of control remaining, so the Braves should expect to receive more in return if he is the target.  In that first trade idea, putting in Cashner should then also justify getting Wisler.

There are a few other minor league players in their system that could be of interest – though some were hurt in 2014.  Everybody knows about Casey Kelly, though he is getting things back together after Tommy John.  Jesse Hahn (RHP/RP) is in the majors’ bullpen.  OF Rymer Liriano is interesting, but has high K’s.  I really doubt that they would part with Odrisamer Despaigne.

Patience, Patience

John Hart is evidently content to wait for his deal.  I would think that the Padres might be the first to jump into the deep end of this pool, as the other clubs are showing considerable restraint and the Padress — are not.  Still, if nothing happens by the end of next week, we’ll likely “shut it all down” for the last two weeks of December.

If the Padres are going to jump on this, I would anticipate that they would before the January ‘caravan’ season:  January trades do happen, but teams are also making plans to get ready for Spring, do arbitration contracts, and the like.

But if I’m Justin Upton, my apartment lease is going “month-to-month” right now.