Justin Upton: Price Reduction?

Yesterday, Mark Bowman published a story that I took note of as if it might be preparing Braves’ fans for something to come.

Today, Bob Dutton, Mariners’ beat writer for the Tacoma News-Tribune, was much more explicit.

The price to obtain Justin Upton is coming down.

Quotables

First Mark Bowman from yesterday:

"Mariners: The Mariners will not part with Taijuan Walker or James Paxton for Upton. But the Braves might be interested in a package that includes Edwin Diaz or Victor Sanchez — a pair of prospects who are at least a couple of years away from being Major League ready. Atlanta could also be interested in D.J. Peterson, whose bid to play third base in Seattle has been blocked by the emergence of Kyle Seager."

This was written in the context of the Braves’ need to “Look to the future” and “upgrade their farm system”… but something about the tone made me think… hmmm…. this is interesting.

Now Dutton’s comments today – which he admits are the result of piecing several things together – but that’s what good reporters do, right?

"Specifically, it seems the Braves are no longer demanding that Taijuan Walker be included in any such swap. I first saw that news in a report by MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, but some follow-up calls suggest it’s true.That could be a game-changer."

He goes on to say that before the signing of Nelson Cruz, Mariner officials were conceding that they would most likely have had to give in to Atlanta’s demands for Taijuan Walker.  Not so now since they already have their ‘big prize’ – a “secondary bat” will not drive Seattle to give up their best prospects.

Dutton goes further – and lower – than Bowman on suggestions for what a trade might now look like with Seattle:  while he concurs with the suggestion of pitchers Edwin Diaz or Victor Sanchez, he dimisses the idea that Seattle would make D.J. Peterson available.

Let me explain a bit:  Diaz is the 5th ranked prospect on Seattle’s mlb.com pipeline list; Sanchez is 11th.  That’s would be a huge reduction from a player such as Walker or James Paxton (their 2014 #1 and #2 prospects).  Now to be fair, other prospect-watchers have differing opinions:  John Sickels, for instance, ranks Sanchez at 2nd; Diaz 3rd (once you remove Walker and Paxton).

My Take

I have several thoughts.

• It still doesn’t have to be Seattle.  San Diego is still pushing the issue – and indeed this morning signed yet another possible (though also fragile) starting pitcher in Brandon Marrow.  One could certainly read that they are preparing to offer pitching in exchange for hitting… to somebody.
• Though we’ve still heard virtually nothing from the Orioles or Giants, both clubs clearly need more offense… especially Baltimore.  It’s actually almost shocking that the AL East division winners have done so little this off-season, given their gaping outfield holes.  But then, perhaps owner Peter Angelos isn’t happy with reports that Toronto was interested in stealing his General Manager?
• Getting multiple top prospects from Seattle can accomplish the overall goal… if indeed that can happen.

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8 Points, 9 Seconds

.  The Braves need to develop a power-hitter third baseman.  He’s somewhere between AA and AAA now, and strikes out too much, but his bat could ultimately resolve the power-outage that’s happening with these trades.  Seattle frankly should not quibble much about him since

is now signed for multiple years.  Some may rightly suggest that Peterson is ultimately a first baseman, but at age 22, he should be able to handle third for at least a few seasons more.

Here’s the problem with those pitching prospects:  both are some distance away from the majors.  On general principles, I think I’d want one of them along with Peterson simply because Justin Upton is worth that.  But Sanchez is still 19 years old (though in AA), and Diaz is age 20 in Low-A ball.  And again, the scouting reports are mixed on this pair.

There are a couple of other prospects in their system that are worth a serious look.  Patrick Kivlehan is another solid 3B target – he K’s a lot less than Peterson and actually looks like a better fit for Seitzer.  In fact, I might prefer him to Peterson – especially if that got us more in return.  Gabriel Guerrero is a Low-A outfielder with good power potential and a great arm.  If you think Pedro Guerrero, then that’s okay – Gabriel is his nephew.

In short, if you can’t get Walker or Paxton, it’s some distance down the affiliates before you find more pitching in Seattle’s system – but there’s still a lot to like for other areas of need for Atlanta – namely the outfield and third base.

My final request, therefore, might look like Kivlehan, Diaz or Sanchez, and Guerrero or an equivalent outfielder.  I’ll get slammed by my Seattle friends for that, but hey:  if you could fill out your roster with Justin Upton’s name on it, would that be worth it?

So About that Pitching Thing for 2015?

In theory, a trade was one way to fill that 5th rotation spot.  So if Taijuan Walker isn’t available, here’s somebody else who is – and one that the Braves have missed chances to get before:

Yep – that sounds good.

But what about that hole in Left Field?  Evan Gattis? Really?