Trades That Changed The Braves – First Base and False Economy
By Fred Owens
For a three year period the Braves had a first baseman who posted a .274/.337/.504/.841 line, an OPS+ of 114 and averaged 27 home runs and 87 RBI a year while playing gold glove caliber defense. Although he was still under team control at the end of that period they traded him for a utility infielder and relief pitcher. Over the next four seasons first base became a gaping hole in the Braves lineup and one can argue that two chances at post season play were missed as well. Sometimes it’s easy to see the result of a trade. On other occasions player turnover obscures the effects. So with 20/20 hindsight let’s take a look at why and what happened as a result of the decision to trade Adam LaRoche.
First Base; The Prologue
After Fred McGriff left Atlanta at the end of the 1997 John Schuerholz brought in an able replacement in Andres Gallaraga. Illness limited the Big Cat’s time in Atlanta but for two years of his three year deal he was a force in the Braves lineup. The next regular first sacker was Julio Franco who in part of 2001 and most of 2002-2003 provided a dependable two way player at first. In 2004 LaRoche arrived and split time with Franco and in 2005 the job belonged for the most part to LaRoche. A good first baseman makes the rest of infield better by providing a dependable target and giving them the confidence to make throws knowing they will more than likely be caught.
Whether or not you believe the stereotype or think it necessary, first is traditionally considered a power position as well and LaRoche provided the dependable left handed power generally desired there. After 2006 he was about the enter his first arbitration year and LaRoche seemed to most observers to be an obvious extension candidate. Although he would get a significant increase in pay that number shouldn’t have been prohibitive for a perennial challenger like the Braves and there was no obvious replacement in the pipeline it should have been a slam dunk; but it wasn’t. To everyone – including his teammates – surprise the quiet first baseman was shipped off to Pittsburgh for Brent Lillibridge and Mike Gonzalez.
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The Trade
Lillibridge was Baseball America’s #93 prospect and baseball Prospectus’ #80 prospect entering 2007. A case can be made that he was seen as the next second baseman in Atlanta but there were other prospects in the system who could have done that job so he certainly wasn’t a must have pickup. Gonzalez was by this time a journeyman reliever – today we’d call him a LOOGY- with nice ERA numbers but a WHIP of 1.35. His calling card was a K rate of 10.9 and he was an effective – even impressive reliever that season and for the next two years in Atlanta. Even a great LOOGY isn’t worth a 27 homer 87 RBI bat who also happens to be a gold glove defender and Gonzalez could probably have been obtained for less. The reason behind the trade was not the players involved, that’s found way back at the end of the 2003 season.
Follow the Money
Baseball is an odd business because instead of distributing profit to shareholders every year teams tend to spend to zero with owners taking their profit when the team is finally sold. Since teams derive a significant portion of their income from people who show up at the ballpark changes in attendance directly affect the amount of money they have to spend the following year. The explosion is player costs during the PED arms race broadened the divide between big market (and deeper pocket teams )and small market teams. To keep pace teams have to get fans through the turnstiles in large numbers or risk going into the red; that’s what happened to the Braves.
The high water mark for Braves attendance was 1993 when they had 3,884,720 After jamming themselves into old Fulton County Stadium. The strike in 1994 turned many fans off but Braves fans buoyed by the streak passed the three million mark again in 1996 and peaked at a post strike high in 1997. Between 1998 and 2000 attendance dropped about 2% a year. In 2001 the gentle slide turned into an avalanche and attendance fell by 12.7% that was followed by 7.8% in 2002, 7.7% in 2003 slowing to a 3.3% slide in 2004. At the same time payroll costs were going the other way.
Year | Payroll | Change |
2001 | 92 | 24.3% |
2002 | 103 | 12.0% |
2003 | 108 | 4.9% |
2004 | 109 | 0.9% |
2005 | 94 | -13.8% |
2006 | 91 | -3.2% |
(End of season payroll data from Forbes)
This created a perfect storm in the Braves bank account. After the 2002 season the Braves reported a $20M loss and then team President Stan Kasten was quoted as saying “ “Our revenues have been out of balance with our expenses. It’s important that we get that more in balance.” Making the changes need to bring the team “more into balance” would take time. Tom Glavine left after that season and and Greg Maddux after the 2003 season but didn’t stop the bleeding and that 2003 season saw the Braves lose $40M. The above table shows a flat payroll in 2004 and a 14% reduction in 2005 followed by another 3% in 2006. Which brings us to the decision not to pay LaRoche in arbitration.
Even though 2006 was a less than stellar year for the Braves COTS payroll data for opening day shows the Braves at $86.5M down and other $4.5M from the end of 2006 indicating they were still in a cost cutting mode and didn’t want to pay the $3M or so LaRoche would earn.
They replaced LaRoche at first base with Scott Thorman who earned the league minimum the financials looked okay, then a strange thing happened. In mid-July the Braves were in with a chance to win the division. Sure they were four games back of the Mets but as we saw that distance was easily overcome. Schuerholz looked at his lineup and decided that if everything continued to work with the pitching a big bat could win the division. The trade for Mark Teixeira was made and instead of another 4% reduction in payroll they finished the year with a 21% increase. Oops.
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Trade Dominoes
The Braves traded LaRoche to avoid paying him what turned out to be $3.2M in arbitration. Over the next four years eight players – not counting LaRoche’s two months in 2009 -would see at least 10 games at first base for the Braves. Together they would post a .261/.348/.439/.787 line, hit 77 homers and drive in 337 runs. Those numbers include Teixeira who was nothing short of magnificent in July to July year wearing the Tomahawk. Remove him and his gold glove from the list and you see a line of .246/.328/.392/.720 with 40 homers and 203 RBI. Meanwhile the oddly much traveled LaRoche continued to do what he had done before the trade.
From 2007 through 2010 LaRoche averaged 27 homers and 98 RBI per 162 games and posted a .270/.340/.478/.818 line with 96 homers and 356 RBI. In the years after the Braves traded him they spent about $19.5M on first basemen including 2 months pay for LaRoche. Would you like to guess what LaRoche earned during that time? Yep, roughly $19.5M.
Dominoes That Were More Than Dollar Signs
As a result of the trade of LaRoche, the Braves traded for Mark Teixeira, Casey Kotchman ( that was a pure payroll dump and badly thought out), and Derek Lee to shore up first base. They also used Thorman, Craig Wilson, Troy Glaus and even reached back into the closet for Julio Franco to stand at first base with Martin Prado, Eric Hinske, Greg Norton and others getting the odd game there as well.
If LaRoche hadn’t been traded, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia would not have been sent to the Rangers and while I’m not as mentally anguished as others over the deal, those players could have done things for the Braves wither by playing or being a part of a different trade for different assets.
That’s A Wrap
I’m pretty sure someone will say – this is easy to point out now but it wasn’t that easy in 2006. True but the premise that extending your best players is always cheaper than signing free agents or trading your depth for a rental player was true then just as it is now. You look at a player like LaRoche – 25 homers, 80 RBI, gold glove – and assess the alternatives. Do you have another player like that ready? If not is one available at a lower long term cost? This is exactly what John Hart did in Cleveland and Schuerholz did early on in Atlanta.
It’s possible of course that Schuerholz was directed to do this but I doubt the direction was that specific. Looking back it’s also possible that the payroll explosion in 2007 was the motivating factor in Schuerholz retiring and Frank Wren being put in charge. We’ll probably never know the detailed ebb and flow of things but one thing is certain, trading Adam LaRoche definitely changed the Braves.