John Smoltz Hall of Fame: One Who’s In

The John Smoltz Hall of Fame argument has raged strong since the ballot was released and continues even after his election today.  Smoltz, as a 20-year Brave was the longest-tenured Brave of the “Big Three” of the 1990s Braves’ rotations, has a special place in the heart of most Braves fans.  He’s a first-time eligible player for the Hall of Fame this year, and after seeing Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Bobby Cox all go into the Hall of Fame last year, Braves fans rightfully have Hall of Fame fever and want to see the 47th former Brave player make the Hall of Fame (not counting players who made it as a manager or executive).  On a national level, however, Smoltz isn’t as much of a lock as his former staff mates Glavine and Maddux were.  Let’s examine the points and counterpoints.

John Smoltz Hall of Fame – The Big Debate: Statistical Merit

The big argument made against Smoltz is his lack of major dominant statistical numbers, like 300 wins or a sub-3 career ERA.  Guys who were fairly far from being elected in 2014, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling, have been argued as equal or better cases as starters than Smoltz.  The difference is that Smoltz has four seasons primarily as a reliever in the middle of his career, and he was no less than dominant as a reliever.  In his four seasons as a reliever, Smoltz posted 154 saves, a 2.65 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a K/9 rate of 9.5, and a BB/9 rate of 1.7.  He then returned to the rotation and posted another 50 wins in his age 38-42 seasons in 121 starts and 773 1/3 innings with a 3.51 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and 8.0 K/9.  He even finished with a bang, putting up a 2.73 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and 9.5 K/9 with the Cardinals before retiring.  Smoltz may have the best postseason resume of any pitcher in the last 30 years, with 41 appearances, 27 starts, a 15-4 record with 4 saves over 209 innings with a 2.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, which is probably his best statistical selling point.

The Comparisons: Smoltz/Schilling/Mussina, Smoltz/Ford/Wynn/Bunning

So, to compare a few guys who Smoltz has been argued with during the last year, let’s look at a couple Hall of Fame eligible pitchers who are awaiting election and a few guys who are already in the Hall of Fame.

John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, and Mike Mussina were all three pitchers in the 1990s into the late-2000s, so they are similar pitchers in era, though they have very different paths in that era.  Mussina might be most comparable to Tom Glavine in his statistical profile, but Schilling and Smoltz are very comparable.  Schilling has more wins and strikeouts in his career, but he spent all but his first full season in the majors as a starter, primarily.  Smoltz has one Cy Young Award, while Schilling has three top-5 finishes, but no first-place finishes.  Schilling has 2 playoff series MVPs and 11 wins in 19 postseason starts while Smoltz has 15 playoff wins but only one series MVP to his resume.  Smoltz has 213 wins and 3,081 strikeouts in his career while Schilling has 216 wins and 3,116 strikeouts over his career.  They are very comparable as starters, but Smoltz can also add in his time as a closer to his resume.

When you look up John Smoltz’s WAR on Baseball Reference’s career WAR for pitchers, he currently ranks 39th.  There are currently 74 pitchers enshrined in the Hall of Fame, so that gives you some idea of where he ranks as a pitcher in the scope of the game, but many of those pitchers already enshrined who are below Smoltz either had very short careers or pitched in a very different era.  I chose three pitchers from roughly the post-WWII era as examples to compare Smoltz with.  Whitey Ford had a lengthy off-field reputation that likely pushed him forward in ballots, but he was also a very decorated pitcher with 236 wins, a 2.75 career ERA, 1,956 strikeouts, a 1.22 WHIP and a postseason record that was quite elite, going 10-8 with a 2.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 2.76 K/BB rate in 22 postseason starts.  Early Wynn pitched for three teams in 23 years, amassing 300 wins with a 3.54 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 1.31 K/BB.  He also only made two postseason appearances and struggled with a 4.95 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 2.50 K/BB rate.  Early’s biggest selling point was his 300 wins certainly, but he did post 11 straight seasons of 200 innings and eclipsed over 4,500 innings in his career.  Jim Bunning had 224 wins, 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 2,855 strikeouts over 17 major league seasons.  He did not once pitch in the postseason.  Smoltz is at the very least a good argument against each of these guys and possibly all three, and many would consider guys like Ford a sure-fire Hall of Fame type, which tells you something about where Smoltz stands (and where the WAR stat still has to go as far as valuing pitchers).

The Unique Trait: Starting AND Closing

Smoltz’s biggest argument is not his postseason record, but his very, very unique trait – his diversity of career.  He is the only pitcher who has eclipsed 200 victories AND 150 saves.  Dennis Eckersley came closest, but he fell under 200 wins, and he was a fairly easy vote for the Hall of Fame.  Smoltz’s dominance was unique, and that may be his biggest selling point as no one else has ever been that elite as both a starter and a closer.  He will make an excellent addition to the Hall of Fame.