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Chris Johnson Needs to Prove Himself

By Alan Carpenter

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A question – and the answer – from Mark Bowman’s mailbag particularly caught my attention this week:

"Q: Why were the Braves trying to trade Chris Johnson?A: This had nothing to do with Johnson’s personality and everything to do with the questionable three-year, $23.5 million extension that he was given in April. Had he not been given this deal based simply on what he had done in 2013, he likely would have been non-tendered after compiling a .653 OPS last season. So the Braves unsuccessfully tried to package Johnson in a few deals. Now they can only hope that he proves to be something in between what he was the past two years."

Revelations

Wow.  That was… both frank and surprising to see.

Yes – there has been widespread criticism of that contract extension.

Yes – Chris struggled mightily at the plate at times in 2014… though was roughly one week away from a batting title in 2013.

But no – I had no idea of the depth of dissatisfaction the Braves seem to have with him – a message conveyed fairly clearly in the words Bowman has given us above.

On that contract…

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    • Frankly, I had been supportive of this extension

    .  It kicks in this season for 3 years and $23.5 million.  There is a 4th year option for $10 million (the $1m buyout is included in that $23.5 million figure.  Payments are $6m/$7.5m/$9m for 2015-2017.  On the surface, it seemed balanced and movable, if necessary.

    Maybe not so movable after all.

    When evaluating whether that deal is “worth it”, there’s several factors to consider:

    • Production value
    • Market rates
    • Other options for third base

    Value.  Over the past 2 seasons – and to be fair, I think we need to look at both – Chris Johnson has been worth 3.2 fWAR (2.0 offense component; -6.6 defensive component).  That ranks him 15th in the majors among the 22 Qualified third basemen.

    Above him are Martin Prado (5.0) and Trevor Plouffe (3.8).  Below are Pedro Alvarez (2.9) and David Freese (2.2).

    Fangraphs pegs the “cost” of a win at around $6 million, thus putting CJ2.0’s value at $9.6 million per year.  So in theory, he’s worth his contract.  My own observation, though, is that if you are reduced into having to make such an argument, then while there may be reason to think that while you might win that battle, you are losing the WAR overall, for the “value” is exactly what’s in question in the first place, and this argument doesn’t have the teeth needed.

    Options, Market

    Braves third baseman Chris Johnson (23) reacts to a ground out. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

    There was quite a bit of optimism that the Braves might be able to trade Johnson this off-season.  Teams with the most obvious needs – San Diego, San Francisco, et al, rejected those overtures – despite the apparent dearth of third base talent available.

    In fact, at the time his contract extension was inked, I myself made the argument “yes – I understand that you don’t like this, but who else are you going to get?”  (though this was said before it was completely obvious that Chris’s 2014 was in free fall).

    The Braves did not have good internal options – Philip Gosselin was about it, and they prefer him to be the super-utility guy.  The now-traded Kyle Kubitza hadn’t even yet ‘broken out’ at AA, and uncertainties persist now about whether his defense will even stick at third.

    The trade market also had very little available, which certainly contributed to these recent contracts:

    …never mind how highly coveted the better arb-eligible hot-corner-minders are:  Josh Donaldson, Trevor Plouffe, Brett Lawrie, Todd Frazier, et al.  So it may have been that perfect storm of elements coming together that got Chris paid.

    Back to Today

    In retrospect, I see now that the Braves really did not need to offer that contract extension.  Coming, as it did, right after a peak year means that the Braves were effectively “Buying High” against themselves… and it wasn’t even necessary.

    Johnson was a ‘Super-2’ eligible player:  he had 4 arbitration seasons and thus was already under control through 2016.  As a result, the Braves extended him for only one free agency year and thereby locked themselves out of the arbitration room based on his 2012-2013 results.  Now that lack of flexibility is coming home to roost.

    Is Chris Johnson still valuable?  Yes.  If you believe the defensive metrics, he’s actually been steadily improving his defense over the past few seasons (though Defensive Runs Saved is still a work in progress).

    But it’s the hitting that bothers people.  He’s been all over the map:

    • .308 (2010)
    • .251 (2011)
    • .281 (2012)
    • .321 (2013)
    • .263 (2014)

    2012-2013 are the years of “hope”.  If Kevin Seitzer can help Chris cut back on strikeouts and make a bit better contact, then he will be a .280-290 hitter, which seems about right.

    If not… the Braves do now have copious options ready to take over.  Alberto Callaspo.  Jace Peterson.  Phil Gosselin.  All that, plus a speedy second base prospect in Jose Peraza who is nearly ready to push all of them over to third base…

    … or push someone out the door.

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