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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop – Catch Up from Around the League

By Alan Carpenter

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A Quick Word About Honor

AN EDITORIAL MESSAGE / ALAN CARPENTER

Over the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals announced several initiatives to “honor” Oscar Tavares during 2015.  For those of you just waking up after the 2014 season ended, Tavares was killed in a car crash in the Dominican Republic on October 26th.  He was 22 and the Cardinals’ top prospect.  To put this in perspective, imagine the impact to the Braves if Jason Heyward had been killed before the 2010 season.

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Among the gestures:

Nice gestures.  Except that I believe they are a bit misdirected.

"Tessie Sanchez, a spokeswoman for the attorney general’s office in the Dominican Republic, told The Associated Press on Wednesday that toxicology reports showed Taveras had a blood-alcohol level five times the legal limit when he lost control of his car Oct. 26 on a highway in Puerto Plata."

That from a Sporting News story – and it’s hardly the only source.  The legal limit in the DR is said to be 0.05%, lower than most American localities, but a 5X reading is still at least triple the US limits, typically 0.08%

So the Cardinals are honoring somebody who was massively drunk, was driving way too fast in a country that is the “world’s most dangerous” for drivers – killing himself and his girlfriend, 18-year-old Edilia Arvelo.  Two dead – needlessly.

He wasn’t the first baseball player to be killed on DR roads:

This was an opportunity for education, but not so much honor.  To encourage better behavior among the DR players – of all ages.  Americans rightly villify players when they are caught driving drunk on our roads.  Yovani Gallardo (2013) is just one example.  Heck, there’s a lot of people who still rail on Derek Lowe for doing that while with the Braves (though notably, his charges were dropped).

I just haven’t been able to reconcile why an organization such as the St. Louis Cardinals would ignore the causes of this tragedy and seek to honor the player despite the obvious misdeeds that resulted in the death of two people and changed the direction of the franchise.

Then I remembered who owns the Cardinals.

What Signing Max Scherzer Means To The Washington Nationals

MATTHEW CORY / FORBES.COM (Yes, that’s right:  FORBES magazine is mentioning baseball when the numbers get this big)

Max Scherzer. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

At first glance, this seems a bit of an odd fit. The Nationals rotation was already stacked for 2015 without dropping $180 million on it. In fact, the Nationals led all of baseball in team ERA last season both from the starting rotation and as an entire pitching staff so adding Scherzer hardly seems necessary. As of yesterday the 2015 Nationals were set with a rotation of Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister, and Tanner Roark. The worst of that group, Roark, was worth five wins (five bWAR) according to Baseball Reference last season. Scherzer was worth six wins last season, so you can see that, if they repeat those performances, there isn’t much upside there for Washington.

But, how likely are they to repeat those performances? Good as he was in 2014, Tanner Roark probably isn’t a five-win pitcher going forward. In fact, according to FanGraphs, he wasn’t one last season either. They give him credit for three wins, and that sounds a bit more like it (Baseball Prospectus went further and credited him for only one win, but that seems low). The smart money wouldn’t peg Roark for anything beyond two or three wins in 2015, meaning that if Scherzer posts another six win season, the difference jumps from one win to four. That’s something for sure, but it’s not a difference worth giving a seven-year $180+ million contract out to obtain. So, there must be more here. And indeed there is.

Signing Scherzer improves the Nationals rotation in 2015, whether substantially so or not. Further, it pushes a strong pitcher either to the bullpen, in which case he could return in the event of injury, or to the trade block where Washington can use him to strengthen a weaker area of the major league club, or to acquire minor league assets to be used to strengthen the future of the franchise. In short, it gives the Nats some flexibility. They can make a trade, but they don’t have to (unless they can’t afford their roster as presently constructed). They can keep the talent on hand and move Roark to the pen and maintain depth in case someone gets hurt or under-performs (hopefully not their new $180 million man). They can do anything they like and be assured that on most nights during the season theirs will be the stronger of the two starting pitchers on the mound. That was sort of the case before but it’s absolutely the case now. From that perspective alone I’m not sure it’s a great fit, but it’s at least something.

[ Ed. note:  The Braves aren’t paying anyone $15 million this year (B.J. Upton is scheduled to get that in 2016-17).  The Nationals will be paying Scherzer an average of $15 million every year until 2028 – 14 years… and he likely won’t be pitching for them after 2021! ]

Hamels is an attractive trade piece, Gillick says

JAKE KAPLAN / PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

WILLIAMSPORT, Pa. – The most prized righthanded arm in this year’s free-agent class came off the board late Sunday when the Washington Nationals reportedly agreed with Max Scherzer on a seven-year, $210 million contract.

The signing sent shock waves throughout baseball for obvious reasons. The Nationals have assembled a super-rotation, one that quickly drew comparisons to the 2011 Phillies. But the move also raises questions about the next shoe to drop in the starting pitching market, and whether a ripple effect of the deal could lead to a trade involving Phillies ace Cole Hamels.

There are only so many topflight starters still available to teams hoping to contend. If the Nationals attempt to move Jordan Zimmermann, a free agent at season’s end, those interested in Hamels have another option. James Shields is the lone top-of-the-rotation starter left unsigned.

“Probably if somebody’s interested in adding a pitcher, certainly you couldn’t do any better than Cole Hamels,” Phillies interim president Pat Gillick said Monday before the club’s short-season single-A affiliate, the Williamsport Crosscutters, held its annual winter banquet.

[ Ed. note:  well, yeah – now his $23.5 million deal (through 2018 + vesting option) is starting to look somewhat sane…but note that it’s STILL got at least $102 million over 4+ years to go.  I just don’t want Ruben Amaro, Jr. to look smart in the end. ]

Marlins Must Sign James Shields

MILLER LEPREE / MARLINMANIC.COM

Already a long shot to win the division, the Marlins now have their work cut out for them. It appears the only hope these up-and-coming Fish have at the playoffs in 2015 is through a Wild Card birth. Of course, the season isn’t played in January, but barring an injury-plagued Nationals campaign, the Marlins will be staring up at them in the standings all year.

Unless…

James Shields is still on the free agent market, and as covered earlier, his price tag is reportedly dropping fast. If Jeffrey Loria is truly serious about contending now, and building a winner around his poster boy Giancarlo Stanton, this is a move that must be made. A $65-million dollar payroll, on pace for second lowest in the majors, doesn’t exactly scream “WE WANT TO WIN NOW!!!” Even with Shields under contract for four years and $70-80 million, the Marlins would still have a bottom five payroll.

An Opening Day rotation featuring Shields, Mat Latos, Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler would be dangerous. Doubly so once Jose Fernandez makes his highly anticipated return this summer. As of now, the Marlins are a decent team hoping to get lucky. With the Nationals close to signing Max Scherzer, that road just got more difficult.

Shields, although 33 years-old with a declining K rate, could solidify the starting rotation, and finally end the Dan Haren soap opera. Not only that, Marlins fans could rest easy knowing that neither Brad Hand or David Phelps would get a crack at the starting rotation (trust me you don’t want either of those guys starting on this team.)

Next: The Case for Trading Craig Kimbrel

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