2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitchers
In our seventh rankings series of the year, we’ll look at starting pitchers:
2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Legalese, etc.
Each of these rankings will follow the same format. We’ll review the top performers at the position in 2014 and 2013, then reveal rankings based on a tier system. We’ll discuss the position in general and the trends of the position. Lastly, I’ll discuss where the Braves player at the position would rank. To qualify at a position, a player must have 15 games played at the position in 2014. I’ll mention any other positions a player will qualify for as well.
Top Fantasy Starting Pitchers 2014/2013
2014 top 50 (in order): Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, Adam Wainwright, Chris Sale, Jon Lester, David Price, Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Zach Britton, Jordan Zimmermann, Julio Teheran, Stephen Strasburg, Garrett Richards, Jake Arrieta, Tanner Roark, Cole Hamels, Doug Fister, Collin McHugh, Jeff Samardzija, Phil Hughes, Wade Davis, Tyson Ross, Hisashi Iwakuma, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Masahiro Tanaka, James Shields, Carlos Carrasco, Alex Wood, Matt Shoemaker, Jeff Weaver, Dallas Keuchel, Scott Kazmir, Alex Cobb, Danny Duffy, Jacob deGrom, Edinson Volquez, Kyle Lohse, Henderson Alvarez, Jason Hammel, Alfredo Simon, Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, R.A. Dickey, Rick Porcello, Yordano Ventura
2013 top 50 (in order): Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Sale, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Aroldis Chapman, Bartolo Colon, Mike Minor, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Clay Buchholz, Homer Bailey, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Julio Teheran, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Justin Masterson, Kris Medlen, A.J. Griffin, Chris Tillman, David Price, A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Alex Cobb, C.J. Wilson, Hiroki Kuroda, Travis Wood, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Moore
2015 Starting Pitching: Tier One
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – Legit first-round pitcher. May be the best fantasy starter of the fantasy era, which is saying a lot.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle – Not at Kershaw’s level, but the only other guy who should really be considered in the first two rounds of a draft.
2015 Starting Pitching: Tier Two
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis – Will throw a ton of quality innings, which is an area many overlook when hunting down upside.
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox – Could argue that he had a better year than Felix, but his injuries kept him from the total innings and impact.
Max Scherzer, Washington – Move to NL should be a very good thing for his fantasy numbers in the short term at least.
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco – Will likely be overdrafted due to his postseason performance, but certainly a top-level starter.
David Price, Detroit – With free agency on the horizon, likely to bring his “A game” in 2015.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington – Always ranked high and has the talent to be here, but performance often is more like a tier below.
Corey Kluber, Cleveland – Exploded on the scene in 2014, and has the talent to be great, but conservative ranking until he does it again.
Jordan Zimmermann, Washington – Often overlooked in a deep Nationals rotation, Zimmermann is a free agent after the season, and he’s going to be inspired to put up great numbers.
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati – Health has been the issue. 2014 shows what he can do when he’s fully healthy.
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers – Plays second-fiddle to Kershaw, but puts up very good fantasy numbers each year.
Doug Fister, Washington – Tall lefty has been consistently good the last few years, and the move to the NL was good for his numbers.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia – Trade candidate during the season, but in Philly his only knock will be likely low win total.
Yu Darvish, Texas – Hurt much of 2014, but going into the season was considered the #2 starter behind Kershaw for good reason.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs – Many point to the National League move as a boon for his numbers, but remember that he is going to Wrigley Field.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta – Moving his way up this list each season. Not a big strikeout guy, and that’s the biggest thing keeping him from moving up further.
Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox – Took a big step forward with his control and ground ball tendencies in 2014. He’ll need to keep runners off base and the ball on the ground moving to US Cellular Field.
James Shields – As of this writing, he’s still unsigned. Like Waiwright, will give a high number of innings with good statistics.
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees – Injured last season and chose to rest his elbow rather than go under the knife. Came back with two starts of opposite results. Track his health in the spring.
Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle – Came back from an early season injury to produce another excellent season.
2015 Starting Pitching: Tier Three
Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay – Got hit by a line drive in 2013, and suffered some of the effects still in 2014. Pitched well when on the field.
Anibal Sanchez, Detroit – Injury to pectoral took away the end of his season. Has injury issues, but he is good when healthy.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers – Often overlooked behind Kershaw and Greinke, but a very valuable fantasy starter.
Tyson Ross, San Diego – Under the radar, he’s become a very valuable fantasy starter.
Henderson Alvarez, Miami – I’ve seen him pumped up a ton in a lot of lists based on his late-season success. I’ll be conservative here for now.
Sonny Gray, Oakland – Bringing in Lester and Shark overshadowed the solid season Gray had in his first full season.
Phil Hughes, Minnesota – Amazing control numbers led to a very valuable fantasy year. I’m not sure he’ll walk under 20 again in 2015, but seems to have taken a big step finally.
Yovani Gallardo, Texas – Many discarded Gallardo after a couple of seasons of low strikeout years, but he’s been instructed to by his team. Curious to see how Texas handles him.
Rick Porcello, Boston – Ground ball specialist going to Boston. I’m just not sure if the Boston defense will do a lot for him.
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City – Excellent first season, but some control issues to be aware of.
Mat Latos, Miami – Could be excellent in the spacious Marlins ballpark.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets – Excellent rookie year in a good ballpark.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs – Took a big step forward in 2014. Watch him as he could take yet another step ahead.
Andrew Cashner, San Diego – Injury issues have held him back, but excellent numbers when healthy.
Justin Verlander, Detroit – Still gets strikeouts, but such a risk with all other numbers that he’s scary to draft at all.
Alex Wood, Atlanta – Took a step forward in 2014, and his stuff is such that he could be moving quickly.
Scott Kazmir, Oakland – Had an even better season than his 2013, but he tired at the end of the season.
2015 Starting Pitching: Tier Four
Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels – Knee injury last season ended what was an excellent year up to that point.
Matt Harvey, New York Mets – Returning from Tommy John Surgery in 2015. His 2013 was incredible, but we’ll see what he is coming back from surgery.
Brandon McCarthy, Los Angeles Dodgers – Very good in his time with the Yankees in 2014, but he has a long history of injury issues.
Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh – Has missed time the last couple of years due to injury, but been quite good when he is healthy.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland – Had a huge second half. Conservative ranking for this season until we see how real that half was.
Dallas Keuchel, Houston – Surprised even his biggest fans with his 2014. Better team around him could help his fantasy value.
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia – Did similar to Tanaka by resting a sore elbow rather than going under the knife. Control is often the big issue with elbow problems, and Lee lives on his elite control.
Collin McHugh, Houston – Took a big jump forward in 2014, and we’ll see how he does in 2015.
Homer Bailey, Cincinnati – Injury issues kept him from putting up even better stats than his 2013.
Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox – Under-the-radar guy who was wowing scouts in 2014.
Zack Wheeler, New York Mets – If he and Harvey are both healthy in 2015, the Mets could make a run at a Wild Card spot.
Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh – Up and down 2014 after a 2013 that had many viewing him as a possible ace. Still enough high marks in the year to make him desired for 2015.
Mike Minor, Atlanta – Huge injury issues ruined his 2014 after a big jump forward in 2013. May end up on the trading block if Braves young pitchers force their way into the rotation.
Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay – Stuck at the back of Detroit’s rotation. Produced very well in Tampa Bay.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto – Small build, but he has a big arm, and while he’ll have rough games, his power arm will allow him to be quite valuable.
Edinson Volquez, Kansas City – Outstanding season in 2014, but has been up and down in his career prior. 2014 performance would warrant much higher rating, but career previous performance would say this is way too high.
2015 Starting Pitching: Tier Five
Matt Garza, Milwaukee – May be on the trade block due to a reported bad attitude, but certainly has the talent in his arm.
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh – Returns for a likely final season in Pittsburgh, where he had very good years previous.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore – Something about him always worries me. Performance would warrant a higher rating.
Jake Peavy, San Francisco – Pitched very well in his half year in San Fran. Should enjoy a full season there.
Ervin Santana, Minnesota – Going to a very good ballpark for his skillset. Cautiously optimistic.
Shelby Miller, Atlanta – Missed much of 2014 due to injury and had struggles when he returned. Tremendous talent going to a place with a great pitching coach to work with him.
Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs – Returns to Chicago where he had his most success after a bad half-season in Oakland.
Ian Kennedy, San Diego – Was considered a top-end starter in Arizona, but fell off strong. Rebounded quite well in San Diego, and now he should have more offense to support him.
Danny Duffy, Kansas City – Obvious talent in the arm. Injury issues have been the thing holding back to this point.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington – Always seems to miss time each year and/or miss out on 200 innings due to high pitch counts. Will walk plenty and strike out quite a bit as well.
R.A. Dickey, Toronto – Knuckler isn’t the 2012 version, but his 2014 season is something to expect going forward.
Michael Pineda, New York Yankees – Returned from injuries to have a very solid 2014 season once he returned.
Lance Lynn, St. Louis – Likely deserves to be rated higher, but his FIP from his 3.97 ERA 2013 and 2.74 ERA 2014 is nearly equal, which shows the wide variety that his approach can bring in results.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay – Followed up his rookie season with another year of growth. Could quickly leap up these rankings.
2015 Starting Pitching: Braves Fantasy Review
The Braves may have traded much of their offense away, but their pitching is as strong as it has been since the three guys who recently were elected into the Hall of Fame – Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz were donning the tomahawk across their chest. Teheran and Wood lead a very talented starting 5, with Shelby Miller and Minor at the 3-4 spots in the rotation. While none made my top 125 starters for fantasy, the Braves have a good group of guys who will be competing for a rotation spot in 2015 (David Hale, James Russell, Jason Hursh, Manny Banuelos, Mike Foltynewicz) and a group who will be coming in 2016 or later with a ton of talent (Lucas Sims, Max Fried, Tyrell Jenkins, Ricardo Sanchez, and more). The rotation looks very bright both in 2015 and the future!
2015 Starting Pitching: Position Review
Kershaw is heads and shoulders above the field, even King Felix. The position, however, is nearly as notable for its inconsistency as the consistency of the top guy. Currently, a very good rotation of talent could be built on the guys who are out for part or all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery: Matt Moore, Matt Harrison, Martin Perez, Kris Medlen, Jarrod Parker, Patrick Corbin, Ivan Nova, A.J. Griffin, Jose Fernandez, Bronson Arroyo, and Tyler Skaggs. With the depth in the position, it really doesn’t make sense in drafting or auction strategy to pick a pitcher early or to spend heavily on any one pitcher. Spending $20 on a rotation in 2014 could have yielded you Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Garrett Richards, Jake Arrieta, Tanner Roark, and Collin McHugh, and that rotation in 2014 would have won you pitching statistics in most leagues. That’s not saying you should spend nothing on pitching, but overspending certainly doesn’t guarantee the better pitching staff.