The Trade That Wasn’t: Justin Upton to Toronto
Over the past week, there has been a lot of activity between the Orioles and Blue Jays about the latter trying to hire Orioles’ GM Dan Duquette away from Baltimore. That’s been fairly contentious and is likely to get even uglier before it’s done – particularly now that both teams seem to have “lame duck” executives running their baseball operations.
The Orioles irritation showed recently when they demanded multiple high-level prospects from Toronto in exchange for Duquette – an impossible price. This “package” was highlighted by the request for Jeff Hoffman, the Blue Jays’ 1st round draft pick from 2014.
Turns out that the Orioles were not the first ones to be turned down for such an “ask.” It was Atlanta.
Jeff Hoffman
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Until being on the receiving end of a
Tommy Johnprocedure, the 22-year-old Hoffman might have been the #1 overall pick in the 2014 draft. The Blue Jays took him anyway – 9th overall. Being drafted in 2014, the rules demand that he cannot be traded until remaining with his original club for a year. Had Toronto been cool with the deal, then the Braves would certainly have worked it as a ‘Player to be named later’ deal.
But the Jays really like Hoffman. The 6-2″/185 right-hander from East Carolina University was listed 6th on the Baseball America (BA) draft rankings list, and consensus top-5 earlier in the year. “Plus” fastball at 94-96 with command (2- and 4-seamers); a plus change-up, and breaking pitches that are at least as good. That’s the whole package – speed, deception, command… but he’ll have to learn it again after rehab.
The Blue Jays seems quite willing to wait that out. Despite a need in left field (they eventually traded A.J. Happ to Seattle for Michael Saunders), they did not budge on Atlanta’s request – which would have been for a single year of Justin Upton‘s services. The answer to Atlanta was said to have been ‘an emphatic “no”‘.
I imagine they were tempted. Think about a lineup including Upton, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson. Oh my.
Atlanta would have assumed the risk for the rehab period (as has been the case for so many this off-season), but clearly, the Jays were thinking ‘longer term’, and opted to keep Hoffman.
The Trade We Made
It is not clear from the information we have whether this was a straight-up 1-for-1 trade proposal. But you would have to conclude that Atlanta did quite well with the Padres, given this rejection from Toronto.
The headliner for the actual trade was Max Fried. Prior to his 2012 draft, he was the 11th ranked player (and the top Left-handed pitcher) by Baseball America, and was taken in the 7th slot by San Diego. He is actually still 1 full year younger than Hoffman – now barely 21 years old, standing 6’4″/185. Like Hoffman, he has multiple “plus” pitches (now or projected: fastball in the mid-90’s, excellent curve and changeup).
Both pitchers are also ‘damaged goods’ – Fried having his surgery during the last season. The only notable difference in these pitchers (other than which arm is involved) is that there are concerns with Fried’s command. If his pitch offerings come back after his rehab, the command will be a bit less of a concern, as hitters should be off-balance anyway.
Overall, while you might have to rank Fried a tick lower than Hoffman, both players project to the top of a rotation, and Fried being a southpaw is a plus.
OH, BY THE WAY…
In case you missed it, Fried wasn’t even remotely the only player that Atlanta received in return (with Aaron Northcraft also heading to the Padres):
- Jace Peterson – who could be starting at second base this Spring… a player that the Padres could really end up missing.
- Mallex Smith – a center fielder that I really like a lot: having “80” grade speed and high stolen-base potential
- Dustin Peterson – actually the highest rated of the prospects in this deal other than Fried. One of two top prospects now on the farm (Rio Ruiz) that could eventually compete for a 3B job.
It’s always interesting to see these peeks under the rug after trades have gone down – to see what else might have been. In this case, if the Toronto deal was a 1-for-1 affair, it still would have been very good for Atlanta… but it all honesty, when you compare that to the San Diego deal, it really looks like the Braves went shoplifting.