Atlanta Braves Morning Chop – Of Pitchers and Prognostications

Braves sign former closers Veras, Capps to minor league deals

DAVE O’BRIEN / AJC.COM

The Braves added a couple more former closers, signing Matt Capps and Jose Veras to minor league contracts that include invitations to major league spring training.

They hope that Capps, a Douglasville native can get past his recent shoulder woes and provide some depth after not pitching in the majors since 2012 due to injuries. Meanwhile, Veras, 34, is coming off a season that saw him post a 3.03 ERA in 34 appearances for the Astros after giving up 12 runs in 13 1/3 innings with the Cubs.

Veras had a 4.50 ERA in 46 appearances for the season, with 50 strikeouts and 27 walks in 46 innings. The nine-year veteran has a 3.91 ERA in 440 career appearances with 438 strikeouts in 423 innings. He has 27 career saves including 21 with Houston and Detroit in 2013.

Capps, 31, has a 3.52 ERA and 138 saves in eight seasons and last pitched in the majors two seasons ago with Minnesota. After posting a 3.68 ERA and 14 saves in 30 appearances in 2012 with the Twins, shoulder injuries limited him to 10 minor league appearances (12 innings) over the past two seasons with the Indians.

[ Ed. notes:  Mark Bowman had 2 very relevant tweets related to these signings, which Fred also discussed last night:

33 pitchers. 

I will set aside the question about how Bowman thinks Veras specifically will have a “legitimate” chance over the myriad of other relievers in the stable (particularly since he is not on the 40-man roster), and go to the bigger question:  how will all of these pitchers get enough innings to be ready for the season?

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Typically, the way this works is that the main rotation guys have priority:  for the first week of game play, they will throw one inning – perhaps 2.  For the next turn, it’s 2-3 innings… then 3-4… then 5.  If there’s any time left, then they can go around 6 innings.

With relievers, a “pool” is assigned to each game, and they each get an inning apiece.  Obviously, there are more needed early on – and a AAA starter could be mixed in as well.  But their game innings are squeezed as spring games move along.

The upshot is this:  it’s going to be difficult to get enough in-game mound time for all of these guys.  Sure, “B” games (minor league games vs. lesser competition) will be involved as well, but that makes it a little more difficult to evaluate performances.  For our purposes, it will also make it more difficult to keep track of who is moving up or down in the eyes of the coaches. 

The Braves will thus end up relying on small sample sizes of performances to see who is ready and who isn’t.  With competition such as this going on, the pitchers involved may also end up having to worry more about bringing their better stuff to play rather than methodically working through their seasonal preparation scheme.  Hopefully that doesn’t get any of them hurt in the process.

Oh – and we still don’t have an offense to speak of.  ]

Ranking the Teams:  30 through 25

DAVID SCHOENFIELD / ESPN SWEETSPOT

28. Atlanta Braves

Big offseason moves: Hired former Indians GM John Hart as president of baseball operations; traded OF Jason Heyward and RHP Jordan Walden to the Cardinals for RHPs Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins; traded OF Justin Upton to the Padres; traded C/OF Evan Gattis to the Astros; signed OF Nick Markakis, OF Jonny Gomes, RHP Jason Grilli, IF Kelly Johnson and IF Alberto Callaspo; lost free-agent Ps Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang and Kris Medlen.

Most intriguing player: Hart is gambling on Miller putting everything together after two solid but inconsistent seasons with the Cardinals. The 24-year-old righty had a 2.92 ERA in the second half after he started using a sinker to go along with his four-seamer. If he proves to be a solid No. 2-type starter, the Braves will be happy with the return they got for Heyward.

Due for a better year: Andrelton Simmons makes too much contact to hit .244 and saw his extra-base hit total fall from 50 to 29, a big reason his WAR dropped from 6.9 to 3.5 despite another Gold Glove season at shortstop.

Due for a worse year: It wouldn’t be nice if I said B.J. Upton. Alex Wood went 11-11 with a 2.78 ERA, using that funky delivery to hold batters to a .239 average. The peripherals are solid (3.25 FIP), so this doesn’t scream out “fluke” to me, but natural regression suggests he won’t post a 2.78 ERA again and I worry about an injury with that delivery.

I’m just the messenger: The Braves have been pretty public about what they did this offseason, so there’s no reason to pile on. Instead of trying to compete with the Nationals, fall short, and then lose Heyward and Upton to free agency, they decided to rebuild and aim for 2017 when the new ballpark opens. The issue is whether Hart did well in the trades he made and there’s no way of knowing that for several years, because most of the prospects he got in return won’t be major league ready in 2015.

The final word: The Braves haven’t had back-to-back losing seasons since the pre-dynastic seasons of 1989 and 1990, but that’s going to happen in 2015. The rotation could actually be pretty solid with Julio Teheran, Miller, Wood and a back-to-form Mike Minor, and funny things can happen with a good rotation. But the offense is going to be horrific. The Braves were next-to-last in the NL in runs last season and they’ve traded away three of the four good hitters they did have. They’ll head into 2015 with one good hitter in Freddie Freeman and one average-ish hitter in Markakis, who is coming off neck surgery. So good luck. But at least they won’t strike out as much.

Prediction: 68-94

[ Ed. note:  Yes, the prognosticators are continuing to pile on.  On XM/MLBNetworkRadio yesterday, Jim Bowden and Casey Stern both suggested “under” last year’s win total of 79.  Bowden was around 73-74 wins.

The problem, according to them, is that the Braves are going to play a ton of games (19 each) vs. divisional rivals that are all better than they are – save for the Phillies.  In fact, Bowden opined that Atlanta should be better than only 3 NL clubs:  Philadelphia, Arizona, and Colorado – and maybe the latter only when they play in Atlanta.

Personally, I still say that pitching will keep them in most games, with a bullpen that could be the best in baseball… depending on how long until the new assets are traded.  But the offense will still need to get a lot of hits – and timely hits – to get their wins.  Unfortunately, it feels like I’m being an optimist to suggest 78-79 wins in 2015. ]