Waiting on Jose Peraza

There’s a competition brewing for the Braves’ second base job this Spring – no doubt. As Andrew pointed out last week, there are four viable candidates in the major league camp: Alberto Callaspo, Jace Peterson, Philip Gosselin, and Jose Peraza.

There’s been a lot of sentiment about fans toward seeing what Peraza can do at the position… after all, he is the consensus #1 prospect. Many would like to see him in Atlanta (Miami, actually) for Opening Day with the major league club.

I don’t think that’s gonna happen – nor should it.

The Shake-Out

Now all of this pablum I’m about to spew forth comes with a large asterisk… after all, nothing is ever set in stone. Injuries happen. Trades happen. Prospects fall flat on their faces. Stuff happens.

But here’s what I think is gonna shake out during March.

More from Tomahawk Take

First off, note that

Chris Johnson

bats from the right side;

Jace Peterson

from the left, and Callaspo goes both ways. I’m going to set aside Gosselin, for I believe he will end up as the ‘super utility’ guy who can literally play all over the field – the braves seem to like him for that role.

As for hitting splits, Johnson’s indicate a strong need to swing only against left-handed pitching (.312 average for his career vs. .273 otherwise; the 2014 numbers were 160 points apart). Callaspo has been all over the map, but if you throw out 2014 (please), his numbers vs. RHP have been significantly better in recent years. As for Peterson… not enough data to say so far.

The Braves tried to go with a third base platoon in 2013 until dumping Juan Francisco. Johnson then went on to post a career best .321 batting average for the season. But last year, his average vs. RHP dropped 60 points while strikeouts spiked (134 vs. RHP; just 25 vs. LHP).

So it makes sense to pair Johnson with somebody for a platoon. Both Callaspo and Peterson can hit lefty. Both can play third base. Both can also play second base.

So in an ideal world, Callaspo handles second base most of the time while Peterson and Johnson share third. If Fredi Gonzalez “feels” like one bat needs more love than another, he can mix and match (trading Peterson and Callaspo) – and he probably will.

But none of that includes Peraza. Not yet.

Why Not Peraza?

Jason Heyward. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s tick off the reasons – which could tick off a few folks that want to see him play.

Patience! He’s still just 20 years old. “Well, so was Andruw Jones when he debuted” (he was actually 19 then). True, but note that while Peraza had a breakout year in 2014, that was split between High-A and AA leagues. The Braves would certainly like to see him been able to repeat that success in AAA before calling him up.
The whole arbitration clock thing. It was a different situation then, but allow me to rewind the world to 2010. Jason Heyward was an Opening Day starter… starting with a bang, in fact. But what if Jason had been held back for 6-8 weeks? What would have changed? Atlanta did barely outstrip San Diego for the Wild Card position that year, falling to the Giants in the 1st playoff round. But Heyward might still be a Brave today as he would still have one additional year of team control – through 2016. It’s a hindsight thing, but given 2015’s outlook (more below on that), it makes sense.
Jace Peterson is no slouch. Depending on who you believe, he might be a Top Ten prospect himself. Even so, he’s already had a taste of the majors and could be ready to go full time, depending on how his Spring goes. Peraza hasn’t had that yet and thus might very well fare worse – for a while, at least – than Peterson.
The ‘Competitive Team’ thing. John Hart is walking a fine line with his comments. The Braves are indeed fielding a “competitive” team… but probably not yet a “contending” team. While they’re clearly heading in that latter direction, I don’t think we can argue that the current roster looks like a “contender”. Given that, why “waste” a year of Peraza’s team control? Instead, save it in the hope that the club can string together a bunch of contending years – with Peraza being a key contributor.

The Braves brought in Callaspo on December 9th – 10 days before the Justin Upton deal that brought Peterson (et al) to Atlanta. I can’t say whether Callaspo would be here if that trade had been done earlier, but his presence nonetheless gives options to Atlanta. Such options should keep Peraza in AAA for a while. And that’s okay.

Game-Changer Scenarios

Here’s what might change all that stuff above:

Significant injury to one of the three infielders we’re talking about: Peterson, Johnson, or Callaspo.
A trade. It would not surprise me at all if we were to learn that the Braves are already shopping somebody… likely Johnson.
Hector Olivera is signed. If that’s the case, then we’d have to have a while ‘nother discussion about “competitive” vs. “contending”… for with Olivera, the future becomes now… he wouldn’t be getting any younger. Doubtless, contract-dumping trades would have to be involved.
Callaspo and Peterson can’t hit their ways out of paper bags this Spring while Peraza rakes and forces their hand. I don’t expect this, but stranger things have occurred.

So when does Peraza come up? Ideally, it’s when he demonstrates mastery of AAA pitching, plus whenever the Braves can exploit the distribution of their surplus of infield talent in a productive manner. That timing is completely up in the air, but it’s an asset that Atlanta has available whenever other teams come to them for the need.

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