Hector Olivera is a Free Agent – Do the Braves Pursue?

Normally, it’s bad news that’s released after darkness falls on a Friday evening when no one is paying attention.  But for this news, I can assure you:  the baseball universe took notice:

Even with this highly-anticipated news, though, there has been some rumblings – unsubstantiated – about the condition of Olivera’s UCL.  Frankly, I expect this is the work of trolls and not from anything official, given that Olivera hasn’t worked out for a team since late February – and nothing looked out of sorts then.

Multiple reports suggest that the negotiation/signing process will be short and quick so that he can get into a camp and have a chance of making a major league roster close to opening day.

The next questions will be “which camp?” and “for how much?”

So the Braves Have Been Interested

We have talked about Olivera on these pages quite a bit:  here, here, and here – just to mention three places.  But now that we’re finally down to brass tacks… will the team actually pull the trigger?  And if so, what kind of chaos would ensue?

First, let’s see where things stand.  Obviously, with only three games behind us in the Grapefruit League schedule, there’s little to go on in trying to assess how this team in going to come together.  But with that as a strong disclaimer, let’s nonetheless see how the infield competition is going:

• Jace Peterson.  3 for 5 (.600) with a double, 3 runs scored and two walks.  That’s a .714 OBP with no strikeouts and a 1.514 OPS.  I’m good with that.  He really is looking like the real deal thus far.
• Philip Gosselin.  2 for 6 (.333) with 2 RBI.  .333 OBP/.666 OPS.  This is your super-utility guy.
• Pedro Ciriaco.  3 for 6 (.500) with a homer, run scored, and 3 RBI.  Has 1 K.  .500 OBP, 1.667 OPS.  Hello.

Meanwhile:

• Alberto Callaspo.  1 for 5 (.200) with a run scored.  He has put the ball in play every AB so far.
• Chris Johnson.  1 for 5 (.200).  He has also put the ball in play every AB so far.
• Kelly Johnson.  0 for 5 (.000) with one strikeout.

All of this is relevant since if the Braves intend to go out and buy Olivera’s services, he’s going to most probably play at second or third base.  Interestingly enough, Peterson, Gosselin, and Ciriaco could also handle both of those same positions.

But multiple players would have to depart – and my best guess is that the names of the dearly departed would be Chris Johnson, Alberto Callaspo, and Kelly Johnson.  Ciriaco would probably become the depth guy at Gwinnett.

For Callaspo, Atlanta would simply cut him.  Chris Johnson would not be so easy – best guess is that a trade deal involving a large check would be involved.

Is all that worth it?

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For some time,

has been insisting to anyone who might listen that the Braves are not rebuilding – that they intend to be competitive this season.  The responses to that have tended to be like patting a precocious child on the head and telling him to run along and play.

As much as I have been personally leery of the prospect, this particular signing could give Hart the chance to say “I told you so” to all of his critics.

In one shot, the Braves could go from an open competition at Second and Third bases to solidified positions behind Olivera and Peterson… in some order.  Both could provide a strong offensive punch to support Freeman, Markakis, and… whoever ends up in Center Field.

It still wouldn’t make you reminisce fondly of the mid-90’s Braves World Series teams, but they would certainly score a few runs.

Is that worth $40 million for 4 years?  Or $50 million for 5?  More?

Do you instead hold your cards and look toward Rio Ruiz for third base in a couple of years?

The competition is most probably Los Angeles (the Dodgers) and San Diego, with a couple of other teams poking around the edges.  Frankly, both the Dodgers and Padres have some roster issues to deal with as well around the 2B and 3B positions… plus each team has too many outfielders that will be difficult to get rid of.

The End Game

Wouldn’t it be a fun thing to be a major league General Manager and have to guess 3-5 years ahead like this and the listen to the fans criticize you when those calls don’t work out?

This is one of those calls… and we will see – probably soon – which way the Braves go on Hector Olivera.