The Melvin Upton Story, “He is Who We Thought He Was”
This is the story of a promising young athlete that falls into the category of “potential high upside”. The problem with a “high upside” player is you usually gauge their “upside” after witnessing flashes of greatness and effort; hence the upside ‘potential’.
Eventually we witnessed the upside over consecutive displays of effort, then the potential upside transformed into “trending upwards”.
This is the story of the player formerly known as B.J. Upton. You can call him Melvin.
His is a very complex story filled with intrigue, sparkles of love, heart felt family dramatic overlay with a serious comedic undertone.
His creator is the diabolical Dr Evil – Frank Wren – whom with the flick of a pen turned a bewildered outcast and problem child in Tampa Bay into the second coming of Spiderman aka Andruw Jones.
Oh evil lurks in the shadows and comes in many many forms. This form took the shape of a GM who put together a fantasy league team on paper and then seemingly told the manager on the field to use what he have. But what the manager had was not a complete team. It was the Frankenstein Monster of rosters… all power, no brains. No real heart but had a singular mission and intent. This monster lacked cohesiveness. It lacked the proper working parts for the manager to actually “manage” so the machine began to fail. And in every system failure you can point to one wheel or cog, or to some stream of data that is either broken or not doing the job it was meant to do.
As a whole, the team SHOULD take the blame but in this instance, let’s look at who we wanted Melvin to be.
At 5 years and $75 MILLION DOLLARS there were some extremely high expectations for Upton. This signing said goodbye to one of Atlanta’s other favorites in Michael Bourn. We Atlantans have an affinity for outfielders. In recent memory we’ve witnessed the likes of some great players to roam centerfield; Andruw, Bourn, Rick Ankiel, Gregor Blanco, Marquis Grissom, Roberto Kelly, Kenny Lofton … all from 1994 to present. Whoever takes that field and has that Tomahawk on their chest have some big shoes to fill.
But did we right a check for the shoes or for the player?
In 2012, Upton was making $7 Million. 4th amongst center fielders, 25th amongst all outfielders.
His stats that year:
573 AB | 79 Runs | 141 Hits | 29 Doubles | 3 Triples | 28 Homeruns | 78 RBI | 31 Stolen Bases (caught stealing 6 times) | 45 walks | 169 Strike outs | .246 avg | .298 OBP | .454 Slg | .792 OPS
According to the stats (you can look at them for yourself by clicking HERE)
In his 10 years of service the trend went (basic observation)… 2 bad years (2004, 2006), (once given the everyday job) PEAKED/ceiling (2007), downward trend but running more (2008), still going down (2009) Tampa Bay floor (2010) trending upward (2011) still trending upward (2012)… signs with Atlanta.
Now I need you all to look at those stats prior to the 2013 stats and be honest with yourself while asking ‘were those stats worth $75 million bucks?’
Dr. Evil must have been brewing some “special” tea that day because the 2012 stats were only going back up slightly. Was it really enough to give him the largest contract for an outfielder (yes even more than Andruw) in Atlanta Brave’s history.
Now comes the expectation of the contract.
Now comes the pressure of living up to the contract.
Now comes taking things to a NEW level of greatness.
….. yeah, that hasn’t happened yet.
Mar 14, 2014; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder
B.J. Upton(2) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Since the numbers were trending upward, somewhere in Dr. Evil’s mind (and the rest of the front office) it warranted a $15 Million Dollar a year average payday? That’s a little bit over $92,000 PER GAME.
Last year we paid the WORST outfielder in the league the 10th highest salary for an outfielder, 3rd highest for a centerfielder.
Those in the same double digit range of MILLIONS:
Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn, Adam Jones, Angel Pagan (wait, why? WTH? ……… never mind)
That is a lot of peer pressure. Especially when a guy who is making LESS than you ($7 Mil) was 3rd in the MVP voting for 2014 and actually won it in 2013 in Andrew McCutchen (same year, Freddie Freeman was 5th).
So not only has Dr Evil overpaid for “expectations” but the player is fighting to compete for a seat at a class reunion that he never received an invitation for…. he got in by default; he made just as much money as they did.
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But as fans, why are we mad?
More specifically, why are we mad at BJ?
He is who we thought he was… (to paraphrase Dennis Green)
He isn’t a great player; we just paid him to be.
He’s not a “great clubhouse guy”, but we are playing him as if he were the leader.
He came with great expectations? But why? Because we paid him to be great or because the competition combined with his current salary DEMANDS him to be great?
He is who we thought he was…
Since being in Atlanta he has averaged:
514 plate appearances (when healthy, he plays almost every day) | 48.5 runs | 90 hits | 10 home runs | 30.5 RBI | 16 stolen bases | .196 batting average | .277 OBP | .311 SLG
These are NOT the numbers we expected from a $15 Million dollar man.
But WE gave a .245 hitter a $75 Million dollar gig.
Based on upside…
Based on expectations…
Based on trends and assumptions…
But WE are mad at him because he IS clearly what he SHOWED he was but WE expected more?
How is that fair to him?
Yes I am one of those people that would just like for him to be average, but will that be enough now?
2 years in and a .196 average is disgusting and insulting to baseball. And for a .196 hitter to be taking up 16% of our salary for 2015 while 10 other players are making up 17% COMBINED is degrading, not just for BJ but for the front office and Braves Nation.
I am not mad at Melvin… He is who I thought he was.
I am mad at Dr. Evil for making me believe that he was something different.
I am mad at myself for believing in a player that had shown me exactly who he was but I still wanted more.
I am mad at Braves Nation for disliking a player based off of an unimaginable assumption that he was going to be great.
And you know what they say about assuming?
‘Til next time
UnBiased Brave