Jace Peterson, Fantasy Baseball Sleeper?

The day was December 19th.  After hearing rumors throughout the winter meetings, Braves fans were greeted with the news that Justin Upton had been traded to the Padres.  Hoping for the best, fans rushed to Twitter and news wires, looking to see the expected huge return for their MVP-caliber left fielder.  Tomahawk Take, among other Braves sites and forums, felt a flood of upset posters when the return was announced: minor league LHP Max Fried as the “headliner” of the deal, with OF Mallex Smith, 3B Dustin Peterson, and IF Jace Peterson filling out the deal.

Who is Jace Peterson?

TT writer Ryan Cothran highlighted Jace in the top prospect list, where he ranked 13th among Braves prospects when ranked by Tomahawk Take writers.  So who is he?

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Peterson was a supplemental first-round pick in 2011 by the San Diego Padres out of McNeese State.  Peterson actually graduated high school from local Hamilton Christian Academy in Lake Charles, Louisiana before staying in town to attend college.  Based on the fact that he wasn’t drafted at all coming out of high school, Peterson wasn’t exactly seen as a big prospect at that time, so his years at McNeese State showed what scouts hadn’t seen in high school.  He was drafted as a shortstop, and in his first three seasons in the minor leagues, he played exclusively at shortstop, and he was considered quite a good defensive shortstop.  Last season, Peterson jumped through AA and AAA and seemed to be groomed by the Padres to play more of a utility role in the major leagues, spending time at 2B, 3B, and SS.  His defensive ability at all positions has been highly regarded.

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Offensively, Peterson has had two very good carrying tools along the way – speed and eye.  Peterson has not walked a ton in the minors, but he’s always had a very good OBP due to his excellent eye, leading to a career minor league line of .287/.381/.411 line.  Scouts praised his low strikeout rate and good bat-to-ball ability, but his only real times of hitting for power were in the Cal League and in the Pacific Coast League, which are notorious hitter’s leagues.  That led many to dismiss Peterson as a light-hitting, slap hitter that would likely be best used as a speedy bench infielder.

So what changed?

This spring, the Braves have seen the very good eye and good contact for sure, but something he’s shown that has really surprised everyone involved has been how hard Jace has hit the ball.  He’s likely not going to top 10 home runs by any means, but he has done well hitting the ball solidly.  Though it has only led to two doubles as his only extra base hits in spring, many have felt comfortable that his Cal League level of power (where Peterson posted 37 extra base hits in 496 plate appearances) may be attainable in the majors with a good collection of those extra base hits likely being stretch doubles and triples.

His speed has been better than advertised as well.  Many felt his AA/AAA showing on the basepaths in 2014 showed more of his true talent, when he only stole 16 bases.  He had stolen 132 bases in his previous three minor league seasons before 2014, and many felt that he often forced the issue on the basepaths.  This spring, he’s only stolen two bases, but what he has shown is exceptional use of his speed once on base, which often is much, much more useful for a team than stolen base ability.  An example I often use due to my ability to see him often was Cristian Guzman when he was in Minnesota, who was possibly the best base runner I’ve ever seen in person, but he’s not a guy who ever put up big stolen base numbers.

So what has made Jace a fantasy baseball sleeper?

Coming into the preseason, much of the commentary of the “fantasy experts” (including yours truly) centered on Freddie Freeman really being the only Braves hitter that should be on a fantasy roster.  This was due to a lack of fantasy-worthy home run and stolen base ability from anyone else on the team certainly, but it was also due to the fact that the team’s offense didn’t look to be very good, which meant the runs and RBI production for others in the lineup would likely be low enough to hurt their value.

Now, many have noticed how the Braves’ contact-driven approach has worked to score plenty of runs this spring, so a player like Peterson at the top of that lineup could be a guy who scores 85+ runs (not saying that spring statistics are predictive, but Jace has scored 9 runs in less than 1/10th off a full season’s worth of plate appearances), and in the modern low-scoring game, that is a very valuable number.  Add in that Peterson should be a guy with a decent batting average and enough steals to help you out, and one can see why he’s jumped up into the fantasy-viable from completely off the radar.

That jump led to Peterson being rostered in two of the three leagues he would have been eligible for in Tout Wars this last weekend, making a roster in NL-only, as a reserve pick for mixed auction, and missing in “Tout X”, which is modeled after Ron Shandler’s one-month game (check out Shandler Park for more info on this), though two of the interviews with participants after that draft have specifically identified Jace as someone they are watching in April for possible addition in May.

Keep your eyes open on Jace as he starts the season in your own fantasy leagues.  He could be a very good addition to your roster in a standard Yahoo/ESPN league, and he should absolutely be owned already in any deep league or dynasty league!