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A Morning Chop Special – the Atlanta Braves MVP for 2015?

By Alan Carpenter

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Roger McDowell – The One That Almost Got Away

SAT:  NOV 2, 2013:

"“The Atlanta Braves have agreed to a two-year contract to retain pitching coach Roger McDowell through the 2015 season, the team announced on Saturday.McDowell, who was reportedly one of the league’s lowest-paid pitching coaches, had drawn interest from the division rival Phillies, who are looking to replace longtime coach Rich Dubee.The 52-year-old McDowell has been with the Braves since October 2005, when he replaced legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone. His contract expired on Friday.”"

We may never know just how close the Braves were to losing McDowell that weekend.  Given that several other staff members – notably in the scouting departments – had been walking away near the end of the Frank Wren era, it is entirely possible that he stayed despite working conditions that may have left the longtime pitching coach feel under-appreciated.

It is time to give McDowell another extension… yes, regardless of the status of Fredi Gonzalez.  Do not allow him to enter the 2015 season as a “lame duck”.  After all, the team’s MVP might not be a player this year – he could be a coach.

We Have Been Spoiled

From 1990-2005, Leo Mazzone was rocking the title of Atlanta Braves Pitching Coach.  Since then, it has been Roger McDowell at the helm.  While Mazzone has been given substantial credit for developing great pitchers, McDowell has developed a reputation for fixing pitchers.

Now entering his 11th season, McDowell is being asked to work his magic again:  the club brought in a number of veteran pitchers to try and cobble together something representing depth in both the starting rotation and in the bullpen.  Why was this necessary?  Easy answer – check out the list of pitchers who departed since last season for one reason or another:

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That’s 17 pitchers to replace from the upper levels of the organization.  Yet the Braves opted to do so – knowing these moves would place a ton of faith in the one man they had in charge of their pitching program.  So what happened?

  • Wandy Rodriguez.  Came in with iffy health – pitched very well for 3 weeks, though slipped over his last couple of starts, and the Braves got antsy, releasing him on Friday.
  • Jim Johnson.  Was a 50-save reliever in 2013, but lost his edge in 2014.  This Spring:  1.42 ERA in 7 outings, 1.26 WHIP.  Better.
  • Jason Grilli.  ERA bumped up to 4.00 in 2014.  In Spring, he’s back to his normal 2.57 with a 0.71 WHIP.
  • Shelby Miller.  3.86 ERA this Spring.
  • Eric Stults.  1.89 ERA.
  • Did McDowell work with Cody Martin (0.00 ERA)?  Brady Feigl (1.17)?  Luis Avilan (2.00)?  Michael Kohn (3.24)?  Specifics are unclear, but there was quite a bit of good results coming from several pitchers this Spring.
  • Now we have Trevor Cahill added to the mix.  McDowell’s job here may simply be to finish what has already been started.  We’ll have to see if that result is worth $6 million.  But it’s interesting that Arizona gave up early in the process.

He Can’t Fix Everybody

This is certainly true:  James Russell was a mess:  10.57 Spring ERA, and while he couldn’t get lefty hitter out, he suddenly couldn’t get anybody out this year.  Same thing for Josh Outman, though he may or may not be hurt.  Matt Capps and Todd Coffey were tried and released (then again, you have to have something to work with).  Chien-Ming Wang has clearly been a reclamation project every since breaking his ankle in 2009 with the Yankees.  A 4.76 ERA and 2.03 WHIP wasn’t great (it’s all about his control), but the Braves see enough to retain him to try in AAA.

It’s hard to tell as well the difference between raw talent and good coaching.  Sometimes, too, you have to trust talent enough to let it be.  In 2012, the Braves – and presumably McDowell – wanted to make a change to Julio Teheran‘s delivery due to an injury fear.  He got worse… much worse.  So for 2013, they let him revert to his natural delivery and he instantly returned to top prospect form.  So far, that’s worked for him.

How much credit did you give the pitching coach for players like Craig Kimbrel?  Alex Wood?  Mike Minor?  Jair Jurrjens (before he got hurt)?  Kris Medlen?  This is a tough question to anwer, but as with Teheran, knowing when to “stop” is also part of the equation.  For the most part, you’d have to argue that McDowell seems to know the adage “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

Building His Own Legacy

Atlanta Braves pitching coach Roger McDowell (45) heads back from the mound. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

From the years 2005 through 2014 – McDowell’s tenure in Atlanta, the Braves are the 2nd best team in total ERA.  Their 3.78 ranks just behind the Dodgers’ 3.75 and just ahead of the A’s 3.81.  The Cardinals, Padres, Giants, and Angels follow as the only clubs under 4.00 over that time period.

Sure – go ahead:  quote me WAR (5th), SIERA (3rd), FIP (2nd), xFIP (2nd)… I frankly don’t care about those stats, because at the end of the day, the one that matters most involves run prevention.  That’s the ultimate job of the pitcher:  getting hitters out and stifling the opposition’s offense.  Aside from the Dodgers (who buy all of their pitchers) and perhaps Oakland (given league differences), the Atlanta Braves are doing this better than any other major league ball club over the past 10 years.

So now McDowell has a substantially new crop of pitchers to work with… many are top prospects.  Many already have had their own styles and coaching experiences along the way.  It will be McDowell’s job to complete the training of these young Jedi Masters-in-Training.

Typically, it is the team Manager that is permitted to select his own staff.  When a new man comes in, the house is cleaned and a new crew is brought in.  When Fredi Gonzalez arrived, this was an unusual situation, given his prior relationship with the Braves.  He did make a few changes, but possibly the smartest thing he did was to retain Roger McDowell.

If the Braves manage to succeed this season, there will be two reasons:  (1) a successful implementation of Kevin Seitzer‘s hitter philosophies; and (2) a successful continuation of Roger McDowell’s pitching philosophies.  It’s the latter that seems to have been working well for a decade now.

It’s high time that the Braves recognize this and give McDowell his due – and that’s regardless of whoever is managing the club.

Next: Braves Rotation Questions are Answered

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