Time To Worry About Braves’ Alex Wood?
The Atlanta Braves currently sit 4 games under .500, and most of us pretty much saw this coming. What we didn’t see coming was a mediocre start from the starting pitching, a staple of the Braves since the early 90’s (except that 2003 team I mentioned in my last piece. And that 2008 Braves rotation that was basically Jair Jurrjens featuring a band of injured veterans and AAAA arms).
(Seriously, on an unrelated note, go look at the numbers for Braves starters in 2008. 11 different men started! 11!)
While there are some fair concerns with the rotation, I’m here to tell you that any of them about Alex Wood are premature.
The 24 year old lefty has now started 7 games this season, yet only owns a single win and a 4.28 ERA. These are stats that most average baseball fans are going to look at and see a problem. Some might even notice that the Braves have not won a single game Alex has started since his season debut on April 7th. And it probably helped that the Braves were up 7-0 when he threw his first pitch of 2015.
And it’s all a bit weird, to say the least. Alex is doing a lot of things right. His FIP is just 2.97, he’s allowed just one home run so far, and his ground ball rate is a super, super nice 49.2%. But his walk rate is up just ever so slightly, and his strikeout rate is nearly 2 less per 9 than in 2014. Granted, it’s only 40 IP we’re talking about here, but it seems to be affecting him slightly.
As I dug around his game logs, his batted ball profiles, his pitch types – it didn’t seem to make much sense. Like it could be written off as bad luck, and to some extent is still can be, but it wasn’t until last night that I realized that Alex Wood has been throwing to A.J. Pierzynski 70% of the time.
Apr 24, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Alex Wood (40) and catcher A.J. Pierzynski (15) walk across the field to start a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Christian Bethancourt has caught Wood for just 11.2 of 40 innings this season (his first start, and his most recent one), and the differences between the two are quite shocking. His 8.84 K/9 rate in front of Bethancourt is virtually identical to his pre-2015 rate of 8.9 K/9. Way much more so than the 6.4 K/9 mark he is posting while AJP is behind the dish. The walk rates are surprisingly similar: with Bethancourt he’s posting a 3.21 BB/9. AJP, a 3.20 BB/9. Bethancourt is currently leading Wood to a 9.64 H/9 rate, which isn’t great, but it’s still only 11.2 innings. AJP on the other hand? 11.85 H/9 in 28.1.
It’s still early, but the results so far aren’t encouraging at all for the AJP/Wood combo. And maybe Fredi noticed that, and that’s why Christian got the start over AJP in Washington. Pierzynski now owns the only start in Wood’s young career where he has not registered a strikeout (April 18th at Toronto), and 13% of his career hits allowed in only 9% of his career innings pitched. (For the record, Bethancourt owns 17% of Alex’s career innings pitched and only 6.6% of his career hits allowed. Oh, and he has led Wood to an 8.88 K/9 rate and a 2.9 BB/9 rate in those 49.2 innings.)
And here’s where I tell you Alex Wood is absolutely not broken, but his regular game caller might be. A 24 year old who is suddenly thrust into a top of the rotation spot for his team probably isn’t going to shake off a 38 year old veteran he respects that often.
But he probably needs to.
And this is where the managing of Fredi Gonzalez can make or break your team. AJP is certainly the better hitter at this point, we can’t dispute that. And I myself have had plenty of lukewarm reactions to Christian Bethancourt being touted as the “catcher of the future” in Atlanta.
But if we want the best from Alex Wood, who is quickly and quietly blossoming into the National League’s Chris Sale, as well as Bethancourt, we have to let the kids play. Help establish that relationship and dynamic, which given their young ages, is probably going to last quite a few years. If Bethancourt is ever going to grow into the catcher of the future, he needs regular at bats, and he needs regular time with the brilliant young core of pitching the Braves have assembled.
The Braves are destined to be a near .500 team in 2015. Trying to squeak out a couple extra wins in the season’s early going isn’t something we should be angry about. But when it comes to the future of the key players of the organization, we should pay attention to things like this. The focus of the Braves coaching staff this season should be on individual player growth and maturity. Andrelton Simmons is already on that path, and we should be following his lead. Building confidence, trust, and relationships between the players of the future is a bit more important that trying to contend in a division full of clearly more polished teams. Obviously AJP has something going with Shelby Miller, and that’s fine. Let AJP catch Miller. But for Teheran, Wood, Foltynewicz, and the like, it’s gotta be Bethancourt from here on out.
Speaking of Julio Teheran? I’ll be back in a couple of days to touch on that.