Tomahawk Take 2015 Mock MLB Draft

The 2015 MLB Draft is just a month away and the Braves have been aggressive in collecting picks and increasing their bonus pool. How John Hart and his team will use those assets is the $64,000 – or in this case $10M – question.

Braves MLB Draft Pedigree

Since the first rule 4 amateur draft in 1965 the Braves have claimed 2520 players. Not all players signed of course and those that don’t go back into the pool for the next year meaning some like Craig Kimbrel were drafted twice. While we all know Freddie Freeman signed in 2007 most don’t know that the Braves drafted Brandon Belt – as a pitcher – and of course he didn’t sign. Most of the time players drafted after the first two rounds are organizational depth teams hope grow into an unexpected asset like Kris Medlen rather than a hidden gem no one knows about because today everyone knows about everybody.

Draft pitching, trade for everything else – sort of

In an article on Baseball Prospectus (membership required) R.J Anderson says that the Braves mantra of building on pitching isn’t something that began with the return of Bobby Cox.

". . . the Braves’ ability to mass-produce young starters predates Schuerholz’s tenure and extends beyond Bobby Cox’s reign as general manager during the late 1980s. To find the movement’s genesis, you have to trace it further back. Back past Roy Clark and Paul Snyder, back to 1967—when Bill Wight joined the organization as a scout."

Since the beginning pitching has remained about 50% of the Braves draft with the notable exception of the time when Bobby was GM. That’s a bit misleading however because during that shorty time Cox drafted Steve Avery and Kent Mercker as well trading for John Smoltz and signing Chipper Jones. It is nevertheless 10% below the standard of GMs before and after his tenure.

Schuerholz restored pitching to to the 50% level when he arrived where it stayed since. In fact in the 10 year period from 2000 to 2009 it neared 60%.  This supports the reported drafting strategy of Paul Snyder who learned the trade working under Bill Wight. R.J. Anderson writes in the same article:

"…Snyder took this parlance to heart, acknowledging later that he would opt for the pitcher if the two players were valued equally. . . .in “Scout’s Honor”, Snyder, while paraphrasing Wight, says, “[Everybody’s] always looking for pitching and if you have pitching you can get players.”"

With pitchers dropping like flies from TJ surgery and shoulder issues, have pitching depth is even more important today.  So the Braves will always choose pitching first? Well no.  The guideline remains “if the two players were valued equally” and is always dependent on the team’s needs. Even the consensus best player on the board hasn’t always been their choice.