Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran: Slowing Down?
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Last night was the best start for Julio Teheran this season. Yet, there were some velocity questions brought up during the broadcast. So I dug a little deeper to see if those were ‘real’ or if many there was another problem.
I checked on Matt Garza‘s velocity numbers between his previous start and this one: virtually no difference on his fastballs… he was sitting 91-95 and if anything was actually a tick up to 92-95 against the Braves last night.
Okay, so the radar gun was working properly. That’s interesting.
The Fastball
Let’s begin with Teheran’s fastballs. The following charts (from baseballsavant.com) indicate velocity of fastballs (2-seam, 4-seam… whatever) for him over his last 2 starts: May 21st vs. Milwaukee and May 15th vs. Miami. Here we go…
Julio Teheran Fastball Velocity, May 21, 2015 vs. Milwaukee. baseballsavant.com
Julio Teheran Fastball Velocity, May 15, 2015 vs. Miami. baseballsavant.com
Against Miami, he generally sat in the 91-92 mph range, with bursts to 93-94 on occasion. The bottom end was typically 90 mph, apart from a few exceptions, but never slower than 88.3 mph or so.
But last night, things were different: 88-90 most of the time, and reaching 91 exactly once (4 pitches above 90.5 on the night). His slowest ‘fastballs’, if PITCHf/x scored them correctly, were generally down in the 85-86 range. That’s significantly down.
But Is It a Problem?
Let’s compare two additional charts from those 2 prior starts: the velocity of every non-fastball pitch that he throws.
First, here’s the Milwaukee game:
Julio Teheran Non-Fastball Velocity, May 21, 2015 vs. Milwaukee. baseballsavant.com
Julio Teheran Non-Fastball Velocity, May 15, 2015 vs. Miami. baseballsavant.com
The differences here are much more subtle, but still present. Against Miami, the Sliders and Changeups (primarily these two) ranged 77.5 to 81.7 mph. Last night, they went 77 to 81. A half-tick slower, but still a little bit less velocity.
Results
Here’s where I would expect to say ‘Aha! The lower velocity coincides with poorer performance!’ Except that it didn’t:
- vs. MIA. 6 innings, 103 pitches, 63 strikes (61.2%). 9 hits, 5K, 1BB, 2R (1ER)
- vs. MIL. 7 innings, 83 pitches, 52 strikes (62.6%). 2 hits, 8K, 1BB, 1R (1ER)
The results seem a bit better vs. Milwaukee due to efficiency and depth into the game…never mind the 2 hits against 9 in Miami. Otherwise, you have the same catcher and two fairly lousy opponents.
So no… I don’t have an explanation for this:
- Nobody has given any indication that Teheran is hurt.
- Nobody has suggested that he might be trying something new in his delivery mechanics.
- Nobody has offered that he might be intentionally backing off of velocity as an experiment.
- We don’t see him grimacing after any pitches as if gutting through some injury.
I am no pitching coach, but I do recognize that diminished velocity is generally a concern… unless that was somehow part of a plan to help get him back on track – to back down a notch… which we also haven’t heard.
But what we do know makes me think that the lower velocity reduces Teheran’s margin for error… and despite the stellar results, there are a number of teams out there that are not looking up from the bottom of the standings that he’ll have to work through – and two of them (Dodgers/Giants) are coming up next week.