Draft Day One–The Morning After

John Hart looks into the draft crystal ball and tries to pull out major league players Please credit Grpahic created by Fred Owens for Tomahawk Take from multiple sources

The shock of some of the choices made on the first day of the draft has worn off. So how about a look back with less emotion?

Alan has a piece giving his take and since sleeping for a couple of hours I’m going to look at what happened and what the next steps will be. with about an hour remaining before the madness starts again.

Why Draft Them

A brief revisit of the first five selection without repeating last night’s posts on Allard, Soroka, Herbert, Riley and Minter.

Kolby Allard

Allard’s stress reaction injury is said to have come from taking part in a home run hitting contest rather than as a result of his delivery.  (No this is not a reason for the dufus hitter to infect the NL, don’t even go there.) He didn’t lose a “whole year” as some have suggested. He made three starts his senior year and at the Perfect Game AA showcase he was called, “Absolutely dominant. . . Easy mid 90’s FB, Commands all his pitches. Good breaking ball and change up.”

His delivery is similar to that of Alex Wood in that he comes across his body and lands so hard on a stiff front leg that there’s a recoil.  One of the toughest critics of pitching motions I know said it wasn’t that bad but others feel that it’s recipe for injury. My crystal ball is fuzzy on this but it looks to me like there are knee and hip injuries in his future if that doesn’t change. Saying all that if he stays healthy he was a top five pick before the injury and worth the # 14 slot from the Braves.

Mike Soroka

Before the draft Brian Bridges said (paraphrasing here) he wanted multisport athletes who had to work hard for what they got, had been knocked down and got backup and had a championship pedigree. Soroka fits most of that. Bridges told Mark Bowman:

"“This kid has a hockey background, his dad played hockey. He’s a tough kid. He’s not really a late bloomer, he’s a young bloomer. . . This is a guy that has a high ceiling and has a chance to be a No. 1 or 2 starter.’’"

I’m not exactly sure what constitutes an early bloomer so I’ll let that pass. Bridges suggestion that Soroka is a top of the rotation arm is something others don’t agree with. Baseball America (subscription required) suggests he “projects as a middle of the rotation starter.” They also disagree with Bridges description of his motion.

While Bridges told Bowman that “When you see that kind of ease in a delivery, there’s less stress on the body” the BA piece says “There’s some concern about the across-body finish to his arm action.” I’m not particularly concerned with his delivery but you can judge for yourself in this video where he pitches against some major league hitters from the Blue Jays. That outing is one of the reasons Bridges likes him so much. Oddly the Jays who are desperate for pitching didn’t think so or at least didn’t think enough of him to take him before we did.

Austin Riley

Not much to add to last nights Riley information. Most teams thought of him as a pitcher because he throws low 90s and can touch 95. The Braves drafted him as a hitter and a 3B. Defensively at third he’ll be a good hitter. He could move to left field but a big man so how good he’d be there I have no idea. The video in the Mark Bowman piece is a fair assessment of a guy who no one is sure where he’ll actually play.

Lucas Herbert

Herbert was considered a “sound receiver for an amateur” by BA in their report on the above linked page. He’s reported to have a 1.9 POP with strong catch-and-throw skills and was allowed to call his own game, a rarity in high school these days. Here’s some video of Herbert.  It’s not game action but worth a look.

Saying he’s a power bat now is a bit of a stretch. He has some big home runs but his swing is inconsistent and is a work in progress.

He has Buster Posey like potential if the swing can be fixed because he’s reported to be a natural leader and any catcher who calls his own game in high school is smart and baseball savvy. he was drafted on ranking do there’s no issues with his choice in that area. The only question is whether there were better options. At catcher the answer is no. In other position YMMV.

A.J. (Alex) Minter

Minter is a huge roll of the dice. Ranked 484 on BA’s top 500, Minter is a often injured player at the age of 21. He had thoracic outlet surgery as a college freshman that cost him nearly two years of college ball.  He came back strong in four starts flashing a mid to high 90s fastball. He threw 21 innings pitching to a 0.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with a 3.63 K/BB ratio.

Mark Bowman’s piece on Minter is interesting I guess is the word. Bowman says, “Bridges was thrilled to end the hectic first day with the selection of Minter.”  They took him at 75 and he was ranked 484, thrilled is not a word I’d use.  Bridges told Bowman why he was happy.

"“Going into the season, I would have taken him [with the 28th overall selection], but we didn’t have to do that. . .He throws 94-97 mph and has great makeup.”"

Okay got it, he throws hard has only 56 innings on his arm since 2013 and you think you got him cheap. He could turn into  Chris Sale (please God make it so) but he could breakdown again tomorrow morning. Here’s some video.

Okay maybe not tomorrow but in July when he starts short season.  If Bridges had said, “We recognize the risk but think his high upside warranted his selection” along with a few other diplomatic words about how he’s a great guy who fought his way back from injury and shown how tough he is I’d have bought that.  Maybe I’m just tired of decoding spin.

My best explanation for this is the need for a lights out closer in 2017. If he stays healthy Minter could certainly be that.

The Plan

The grand plan seems to be – as pointed out to me last night in the live thread – to emulate the Astros and Cubs by taking well below slot signings early then using excess funds to pick up players who fall for some reason into rounds three and below. So who are these guys, here’s a list of the top 15 unsigned prospects from BA’s list.

Obviously the guys at the top Everett, Matuella, Miller Nix, etc are the ones who fell the farthest. Everett is a 100 mph flame thrower, Matuella a 4 pitch mid 90s guy who had forearm issues early this spring that scared people off and Nix was the guy that agreed to sign with the Astros but didn’t when the Aiken deal fell through.

Demi Orimoloye is is the most interesting outfield in the group with a huge upside. He’s fast with a plus arm and power potential, and the list goes on.  These are the guys I’ll be watching today as we wade through the next rounds. Stay in touch with me here on the take

Next: Day 1 Quick Take