House That Hank Built
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The Morning Chop…Moment of Impact

By Alan Carpenter

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Jun 2, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher

Luis Avilan

against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a whole lotta hate going on today about Luis Avilan and Fredi Gonzalez today… thanks to the results of one pitch.

Yes – the Braves collectively snatched defeat from the jaws of victory yesterday vs. the Brewers, but you know… sometimes the other guy has to get some credit, too.

The image below is a still shot from this video that shows the fatal moment at which Carlos Gomez hit the Luis Avilan pitch for the winning 3-run homer.

I have a couple of observations:

  • Gomez clearly was expecting a fastball here.  Note that his hips had already committed to the swing well in advance… it was his top half that ended up doing all the work as he adjusted for the breaking ball that arrived.  But he’s strong enough to pull that off.
  • A fastball should have been expected, too, with a 3-1 count and 2 runners already on base.  But Gomez is dangerous – he’d already hit one out in the game.  Avilan and A.J. Pierzynski certainly didn’t want to groove one here.  Based on Gomez’ reactions, the breaking pitch was likely the right choice.
  • It wasn’t a bad pitch… clearly at the knees with some bite to it – this was no hanging curve.  If you want to quibble, then yeah – it had too much of the plate and was obviously barreled-up.  But in reviewing the video, I frankly think it was more about Gomez making a heck of an adjustment during the swing – else he might not even have gotten any wood on the pitch at all.

The other criticisms have been levied at Fredi Gonzalez:  why even have Avilan in to keep pitching with 2 runners on?

Arodys Vizcaino was available… and indeed was the next pitcher brought it.  But the knock on him has been about his control, and to bring him in at a critical point like that (he’d thrown exactly one major league pitch all year – the day before) would have invited second-guessing had he started throwing wildly.  As it was, he threw 11 pitches; 5 of them balls.

More from Tomahawk Take

Who else?  Carpenter?  Kelly? Somebody else?  Johnson was slated for the 9th inning yesterday, so he was being held back.  Avilan was victimized by two bloops before the blast, though that could have happened to anybody.  Right-handed hitters are batting just .179 against him… even after yesterday… with an OBP of .236.  Those are the best stats in the bullpen, so what else would you do with the game on the line?

Suppose that Vizzy had started the inning and put the first two runners on.  Who would you expect that Gonzalez would have turned to in that situation?  Probably Luis Avilan.  So I do think there’s an argument to be made to leave him in in that situation.

The one valid point seems to be over Avilan’s use this season.  He’s only 73rd in total reliever innings in the majors, but yesterday was his 44th appearance of the year, which does rank him #1 among all pitchers in baseball.  Jim Johnson is tied for 2nd with 43, by the way.

So was that Gomez homer the result of overuse or too many innings?  I have to believe it was just one pitch that one opponent managed to run into at the exact right moment of opportunity.  In other words, it was just a baseball thing.

Here’s the box:
 

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