The Atlanta Braves’ Trades: Following the Money
Braves center fielder Cameron Maybin (25) greets Atlanta Braves infielder Pedro Ciriaco (13) after the top of the fourth inning of their game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
By now, the dust is settling, but there’s still a number of questions to answer about this mega-deal pulled off between the Dodgers and Braves… oh, and I suppose the Marlins were involved as well. One of them is this: how does this impact the Braves financially… for now and later?
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The Braves are starting to make an art form out of using the money from other teams to accomplish their own goals (witness this, plus the trade with the Padres that cost us Craig Kimbrel, but off-loaded all of Melvin Upton’s contract). By some accounts, the Dodgers effectively wrote off something in the neighborhood of $43 million in the totality of this deal.
Let’s make some lists and some estimates from the two trades made in the past 2 weeks:
The ‘Now’ Savings
- Bronson Arroyo: $3.5 million remaining for 2015; $4.5 million option buyout for 2016. $8.0 million total, of which some monies were shipped to Los Angeles. Hat tip for the data, which came in after the original post, but I believe that MLBTR is in error: I believe Atlanta sent $3 million to LA. Savings: $5.0 million.
- Juan Uribe: $6.5 million 2015 contract. Braves send a half million to the Mets. Savings of roughly $2.0 million after replacement by a new ML-minimum salary.
- Kelly Johnson: $1.5 million 2015 contract. Savings of roughly $0.45 million after replacement by a new ML-minimum salary.
- Jim Johnson: $1.6 million 2015 contract. Savings of roughly $0.45 million after replacement by a new ML-minimum salary.
- Alex Wood‘s salary is near the major-league minimum and is being replaced by roughly an equal amount. The same applies for Luis Avilan. Savings: $0.
- Hector Olivera is scheduled to receive $2 million this season, or about $750K to be added to the payroll.
Totals: approximately $8.65 million in estimated savings from direct personnel moves. Clearly, that wasn’t the total motivation of the deals, but the dollars do favorably enhance Atlanta’s end of the trade.
In addition, the latter trade locks up Olivera for a quite-reasonable cost over at least the next 5 seasons. We do lose a cost-controlled pitcher, but in this market, good third basemen are much harder to find. Even if Olivera turns out to provide league-average performance, it’s a solid trade from the monetary aspect.
Speculation About the Off-Season
This $4.15 million in savings should be sufficient to help Atlanta write a check in late November that releases Chris Johnson from the team and eliminates the $17.5 million that will still be due to him. One Olivera arrives, there will be no place for Johnson to play except from the bench, so one would have to conclude that it’s simply a matter of time before this write-off it done.
Among arbitration-eligible players, I expect the following:
- non-tender for Mike Minor ($5.6 million in 2015)
- non-tender for Josh Outman ($925,000 in 2015), though this decision is iffy, as he is now rehabbing well in the minors; next stop: AAA.
- All other tender decisions will either by picked up or they would be replaced by a minimum-salary player; financially these are a wash either way.
Among players with expiring or option contracts:
- A.J. Pierzynski. The team would love to have him back, but it has to be a mutual decision, and might very well depend on other transactions. Unknown.
- Jonny Gomes. Gomes has an option that will not vest, but I would not be surprised if the team opts to pick it up anyway. Again, other factors will come into play: Dian Toscano, a possible return from Kelly Johnson, another acquisition, etc. Unknown.
- Jason Grilli is under contract and therefore will be back in 2016 at some point.
Sum Totals
Taking all of this together, Atlanta appears to have a minimum payroll commitment in 2016 of roughly $57.5 million at this time. Adding in roughly 10-ish minimum-salaried slots, plus an odd bench/bullpen veteran or two, we can guess something in the range of $70 million to fill most 25-man roster slots for next season.
That leaves at least $40 million available to consider using for bigger-name free agents, should the team choose to do so. That kind of flexibility leaves open a number of options – whether in taking a large contract via trade or in an outright free agent deal.
At this point, Atlanta looks like they will probably finish 2015 with one of the 10-worst records in the league, which means that their first round draft pick for 2016 will be protected, should they opt for a free agent that has a qualifying offer attached.
Some possibilities:
- David Price (no qualifying offer)
- Johnny Cueto (no qualifying offer)
- Jordan Zimmermann (qualifying offer likely)
- Alex Gordon (qualifying offer certain)
- Zack Greinke (qualifying offer certain)
- Matt Wieters (qualifying offer likely)
There are certainly others, but these are among those that could fill the Braves’ needs. There will be other options as well. For example, if Cameron Maybin were to be moved to another club, that would free up his $8,000,000 2016 salary to help pursue someone like Gordon. But we have lots of time to speculate on “what the Braves should do” before then.
So in short, whether you like the deals made over the past couple of weeks or not, it appears that “adding financial flexibility” was part of the equation.