Atlanta Braves: the August Meltdown

Aug 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) takes the ball from starting pitcher Julio Teheran (49) as he removes him from the game against the New York Yankees during the fifth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

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I have tried to stay optimistic. I have tried to be positive. I have come up with every reason I can muster to put the best spin possible on this 2015 Braves’ season.

No longer.

54-77.

Sorry, John Hart: since hitting that 42-42 mark on July 7, this team has most definitely not been “competitive.”

After that date, the Atlanta Braves are … you’d better sit down for this … 12 and 35. That’s one loss away from a .250 clip. Projected to a full season, such a rate would be historically bad: 41-121.

You heard it here on this site 2 weeks ago… that the Braves could be “competitive” for the first overall draft pick in 2016. At the time I was still hoping for better… maybe they could rally… maybe the home-laden schedule would work in their favor. I even projected a possible 72-90 finish based on prior home-cooking success.

That’s not gonna happen. Not after what we’ve witnessed over the past week. Right now it would take a 18-13 finish to reach 72-90. This team can’t even muster a W for Shelby Miller.

And yet we still have 31 games of futility remaining. So we’re gonna turn that around now and give you… The Futility Standings:

[table id=30 /]

(Braves own none of the “better pick” tie-breakers except vs. Milwaukee)

There it is – barring a miracle, these six National League clubs will be your Top 6 to Pick (in some order) next June. As you can see, the Braves have done a marvelous job of throwing themselves into the midst of the pack. Also of note, there are several factors that would suggest that Atlanta has a really good shot at securing that #1 draft pick down the stretch:

The Rockies still have 2 games in hand to play compared with Atlanta (with the Braves already ahead in losses). Any win in those games improves the Braves chances.
The Phillies have been playing much better ball in the second half, and that 4-6 recent record (despite 2 losses) is still matching the best on this chart. They face tests against Boston and the Cubs, but things get easier for them later.
Miami could be the biggest challenge for the Braves to pass. These head-to-head matchups could prove decisive, since Atlanta had actually been dominating Miami early on – particularly in Florida. With one more road series remaining in Florida, though, Atlanta’s total inability to win on the road could push them over the top… as in ‘first to the podium’ next June.
Having fans not show up for home games (or even better – having them root against you) will further beat this team down. So will the absence of the team’s remaining heart-and-soul, Jonny Gomes.

Meanwhile, how bad was August?

Pretty ugly… like last-September-ugly.

29th in runs scored (somehow the Angels were worse, 86 vs. 98. The Blue Jays scored 170).
29th in homers (21; the Marlins had 18… counting one last night)
30th in team ERA (half a run per game worse than anybody else… though the Yankees powered that number). Also last in FIP and xFIP, for those who care about those numbers.
29th in pitching walks
27th in pitching strikeouts
27th in pitching BABIP against
Only club with a negative pitching WAR (-1.7)

The hitting, OBP, walks, and strikeouts still put the offense in the middle of the pack, so the problems are clearly a combination of (a) the pitching, and (b) stringing enough hits together to produce runs.

Even the Braves’ 45 team doubles wasn’t terrible – tied for 20th overall. But it’s evident that 8th place in singles isn’t sufficient to score… especially coupled with 22 double plays (tied for 9th most).

So the Hector Olivera era begins tonight. But I don’t expect him to change all of that by himself.

Next: Well, Maybe This Will Be More Optimistic

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