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Does New Brewers GM Increase Chances that Atlanta Braves Could Get Lucroy?

By Alan Carpenter

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Sep 2, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy (20) drives in two runs with a base hit in the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

David Stearns is now the General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Much has been made of his age – 30 – as part of this hiring, but well beyond that, the bigger question is going to be this:  how will he approach this position and plan to rejuvenate a Brewers club that has struggled so much since winning their division in 2011 – their first title since 1982 when they were in the American League?

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Here’s an interesting quote from Stearns’ introduction statement, courtesy of MLBTradeRumors:

"The GM-to-be said in his introduction that every team has the same basic “need to acquire, develop and keep controllable young talent — quality Major League talent.” Doing that, he said, involves “develop[ing] a process and a system that allows you to consistently generate that pipeline, even as you are competitive at the Major League level. There are a couple of teams that appear to be able to do that, and that’s certainly our goal here in Milwaukee.”"

Another key tidbit from that MLBTR “reactions” piece:  Stearns was the sole Assistant GM at Houston under Astros GM Jeff Luhnow.  Among other things, this indicates that he would have been heavily involved in every transaction the Astros made during the past year.

Here is a list of Astros recent major acquisitions:

In short, the Astros were active – sending a number of highly-valued prospects out for the sake of trying to fill gaps fast.  Given some of the players already on their roster, that made good sense to do so.  But it suggests that Stearns – under Ludhow’s direction – will not be afraid to do whatever might be necessary to improve the club.

Milwaukee’s Needs

Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

At 63-88, you’d have to expect that there are several needs.  Ryan Braun is once again their most productive player (but at just 2.9 fWAR)… and given his contract, he’s likely to be in Milwaukee for a while yet.

The Brewers have the 4th highest starting pitcher ERA in the majors (currently 4.80; Braves are 9th).  They also have the 6th worst offensive fWAR rating.  This comes before trading away Carlos Gomez, who they were going to lose after 2016 to free agency regardless.  They managed to trade away aging Aramis Ramirez, but neither Elian Herrera nor Hernan Perez are going to excite the Brew-Crew fans.  Ditto their CF replacements for Gerardo Parra (now an Oriole).

Milwaukee does have some capable prospects coming – outfielders and a couple of pitchers – but it could take some time.  Note that the MLB Pipeline top thirty for this club mentions no third basemen and no catchers.

Proposal

So if their new GM is interested in making a splash – to put his mark on the team right away – does he then go to make the bold move to acquire young talent that can fill several holes at once?

If you’ve been paying attention at all, then yes:  I’ve intentionally set this up to fit with the Braves needs like a puzzle piece.  Frankly, I hate proposing trades, for they never happen as envisioned… but this does seem to make good sense to me from both sides.  Here’s one way that this might work:

Another possible combination might involve Cameron Maybin – having traded Gerardo Parra away, Milwaukee could certainly use a better replacement while they await some outfield prospects.  Figure something like this:

  • C Jonathan Lucroy to the Braves
  • OF Brett Phillips to the Braves (their #2)
  • C Christian Bethancourt to the Brewers
  • RHP Williams Perez to the Brewers
  • CF Cameron Maybin to the Brewers
  • RHP Lucas Sims to the Brewers (our #7)
  • Cash to MIL to balance the salary exchange

Balance

IS THAT ENOUGH FOR LUCROY?  He is under contract through 2017 (given a team option), so there are 2 full years of control, but it’s likely that he’ll bolt for his sole ‘big contract’ after that – regardless of who is paying him at that point.  He had rebounded from a poor start due to injury (hitting .300 over this month), but just suffered a concussion, and could be done for the year now.  But he’s been a hitter, an All-Star, a fine defender, and … really there’s nothing not to like about him.  Everything I have seen about whether to trade him involves the phrase “selling high”.

Clearly, Bethancourt would have to be in such a trade – if Milwaukee is okay with moving Lucroy at all.  Clearly, a young major-league-ready pitcher needs to be included as well.  Ruiz is our only 3B prospect unless you count Adonis Garcia, and I’m not certainly that the Brewers would.

I’ve been hard on Ruiz in my own evaluation, but his hitting was indeed catching on at the end of his AA season… and of course he’s now blocked by Hector Olivera for 5 years.  If Stearns would take Garcia to allow them to wait for Ruiz, then it would make sense to add him to the trade.  He’d at least give them another useful bat.

IS THAT TOO MUCH FOR LUCROY?  He is already 29 years old and while durable, Milwaukee had used him unmericifully – 300 games in 2013-14.  I have mentioned the concussion… which pretty much puts the cap on a forgettable year for him.

2 years of control for Lucroy is good… but part of the balancing act that both teams have to perform is to consider “years of control” vs. “performance projections“.  Lucroy is a free agent in 2018.  Bethancourt is a free agent in 2021.  In this scenario, the Braves would be sacrificing multiple years for both CBeth and Perez (or whatever other young pitcher might be included).

That’s a lot – as we discussed when the Braves traded Alex Wood and Jose Peraza for Hector Olivera.  However, a deal for Lucroy would seem to be not nearly that kind of level.  The Dodgers effectively saved the Braves tens of millions of dollars and Olivera has 5 years of control.

At the same time, if the Brewers make it known that Lucroy is available, a bidding war could ensue, and thus including 3-4 useful players might be necessary.  Also:  Lucroy’s current contract is substantially unbalanced in favor of the team.

Wait and See Mode

The trick now is whether David Stearns will opt to make this big splash.  History suggests this is possible – not only because of his own recent history, but that of other clubs (Dodgers, Padres, Braves) that have recently changed executive direction.  Lucroy is his best – if not only – reasonable trade chip.  The Braves have numerous pieces that could help their needs immediately.  It seems to be a reasonable fit.

From Atlanta’s point of view, while having Lucroy would resolve catching issues… at least in the short term… the proposed swap would also help alleviate some of the starting pitching logjam expect next Spring, and possibly make space for Mallex Smith if Maybin were dealt.

There would be a question about what to do after 2017 when Lucroy looks for greener pa$ture$, but that’s another matter for another day.

Next: Checking on Chances of a West-Fla Spring Fling

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