Atlanta Braves May Not Want to Catch Wieters

More from Tomahawk Take

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors broke down the pending free agency of Catcher Matt Wieters yesterday, and he made several points worth pondering for those who believe that the Braves should make a run at signing the 2-time All-Star.

In short, I think I could summarize his analysis in this way for our purposes: if you didn’t re-sign Brian McCann, why would you pursue Matt Wieters?

That’s over-simplified, but there are reasons to put the two players on a par with one another:

Both are/were 29 at the time of their free agent off-seasons
Both have personal ties to the Atlanta area
Both have been All-Stars
Both are/were undeniably the best free agent catcher available at the time
Both are ‘offense-first’ catchers, though McCann is easily the superior example
Both are respectable on the defensive side – not great, but solid. Wieters does excel in throwing out base-runners, though… or at least did.
Both have had some injury/longevity concerns
Both developed into premium clubhouse presences

Dierkes points out that Wieters is a unique specimen of a catcher, being 6’5″/230 lbs. Curiously, though McCann stands 6’3″/220, his size had never seemed to be a factor in Atlanta. But Dierkes draws a parallel from Wieters to Joe Mauer (6’5″ 220), noting that Maurer has been unable to stay behind the plate as he rounded the 30-year-old marker.

The Warning Signs

Though there have been signals that suggest strong interest from the Braves in Wieters, the list of potential problems in such a pursuit are myriad. Aside from those indicated above…

He is not an elite hitter. Wieters is now 3 years removed from his last decent offensive season (2012) and 4 years away from his career best (4.4 WAR).
Likewise, as noted, he’s not an elite defender either. Dierkes notes his pitch framing is poor, but then so is that of A.J. Pierzynski.
Lots of innings accumulated. Prior to 2014, he was a workhorse: 4 years of 130 games or more. Since then, he’s had trouble staying healthy, including a rare non-pitcher Tommy John surgery.

Agent Entanglements

Then there is the Scott Boras agent factor. The 2015-16 Free Agent compensation Qualifying Offer threshold is $15.8 million. That’s an interesting number, but one that the Orioles will probably make that 1-year offer so that they can glean a compensation draft pick.

My expectation is that Boras may do what Boras does in these situations: he will wait. That presents a significant problem for most clubs in need of a catcher. Normally, you’d want to have such a large uncertainty wrapped up before Christmas. Catchers, after all, are clearly at the core of team needs. Most other positions can be filled without a huge concern over supply and demand… but not this one.

It was on November 23rd, 2013 that Brian McCann agreed to terms with the Yankees. On November 17, 2014, Russell Martin did likewise with the Blue Jays. Early signings… without Boras involved.

On February 12, 2013 (just a week prior to seeing camps open up for Spring), Michael Bourn – the lone remaining free agent of significance that off-season – came to terms with the Indians on a 4 year/$48 million deal after initially asking the Braves for 7 years and around $17 million annually. Given that context, getting Melvin Upton for 5x$15m actually didn’t seem as bad (at the time).

What I Expect the Braves to Do

Atlanta is in a unique situation. They have multiple options for the catching position. Given that, here’s the path I would expect they might follow:

Pursue a trade for propsect Gary Sanchez of the Yankees. Blocked by Brian McCann, this makes all the sense in the world for them. However, they will extract a price in talent, and Atlanta may not wish to pay it. Others certainly might, though I believe we’ll make a strong run at him.
Re-sign A.J. Pierzynski. We are led to believe that there is mutual interest in such a reunion. He thus provides both insurance and leverage.
Wait out Boras about Wieters. In this instance, the Braves would not have to blink – at all – in any negotiation. Dierkes suggests that he will have to settle for a 4 year, $64 million deal ($16m Average annual value). That’s possible, though I do think it still will be a bit high for Atlanta’s tastes. If this drags into late January, then Atlanta might bite at 4x$14m or 4x$15m… if the numbers can possibly get that low.
Failing all of that, Christian Bethancourt (or another random free agent) still represents a viable fall-back position.

Having a protected 1st round draft pick doesn’t hurt, either. If Wieters gets the expected Qualifying Offer, then the Braves could be willing to entertain a slightly higher offer. Certainly signing a free agent doesn’t cost anything in terms of high-value prospects, either, though Sanchez would be much cheaper in terms of cash.

Clearly, there’s reasons to be wary of Wieters, and he should not be the Braves’ first option… and probably not even the second or third option.

Next: The Braves Star... extinguished far too early

Home/Braves News