Atlanta Braves Mauricio Cabrera: 18th? 21st? …or 99th?
Earlier this month our Ben Chase rolled out a sizable labor of love – reports on the Braves’ Top 100 prospects. A lot of the rankings were quite frank – and went contrary to those at other sites.
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For reference, here are the links to Ben’s work:
Mauricio Cabrera is a bit of an enigma on Ben’s list. Personally, I’d had a tough time trying to figure out where he should be placed. He was signed out of the Dominican Republic at age 16 in 2010, and is still just 22 years old.
For his first 3 seasons on the US mainland, Cabrera was a starter – throwing as many as 131 innings in 2013. However, injuries got to him and he’s been trying to come back since then. He’s now in the bullpen, and at this point appears to be fully healthy, but that’s only a partial concern about his pitching.
As Ben put it, he “has no idea where it is going as he throws it”.
In terms of prospect rankings, Cabrera peaked somewhere around 5th overall on Braves’ lists. Currently, the MLBPipeline site shows him at 21st. John Sickels placed him 18th. Martin Gandy removed him from his Top 30 this season.
Our list has him… 99th.
Another View
This week, BaseballAmerica’s in-house-writing scout Therron Brockish took a look at Cabrera and the pitches he throws. There is a particular number that is going to get everybody’s attention: 102. That’s the speed of his fastball.
Yeah – that’s not a typo: 102 miles per hour. Quoting directly: “Throwing effortlessly from a three-quarters slot, he dialed up 102 on four to five pitches, routinely reaching triple digits.”
There’s more. Expounding on the point, Brockish discussed what made him see a top grade of ’80’ on that fastball:
"Such a high grade is not just based on velocity. When scouts talk about fastball “life,” Cabrera’s fastball is what they’re talking about. His fastball exploded at the plate, striking out two of the three hitters he faced and forcing a weak grounder to end the inning. Some hard throwers get hit hard because their fastball is so true. Hitters had trouble not only catching up to his fastball but also squaring it up, which is a good sign. His fastball command was solid, throwing to both sides of the plate as well as going upstairs for a strikeout."
Brockish was impressed – suggesting that Cabrera could bring this heat to the majors as soon as 2016… and he’s thinking “closer” material. There was one point of caution in his words, which hints at the concerns we have here.
"Major league hitters will be more disciplined, so he will need to refine his stuff and continue to pound the strike zone."
Well, that’s exactly been the problem… and why Ben gave him that brutally frank assessment early this month. Cabrera not only hasn’t been pounding the strike zone… he’s had trouble simply finding it.
Rankings and Stuff
In Ben’s methodology for ranking players, he immediately added a ‘penalty’ for the starters-turned-relievers on his list. That clearly factored heavily in his 99th placement of Cabrera. But the rankings are about potential impact in the major leagues. Unfortunately, what we’ve been seeing – up to this point – is a player that we’ve already seen before.
His name? Juan Jaime.
Jaime is now 28 years old and also has 100 mph stuff. He also could not control it. The Braves gave him every possible opportunity – up to and including stints in the majors to see how his fastball might play. But it was ultimately the walk rate that made them give up on him. Jaime’s now in the Dodgers organization – effectively starting over. He pitched at every minor league level they have this season, but so far still hasn’t harnessed the location he desperately needs.
Mauricio Cabrera is looking like a very similar pitcher. In 31 innings at Carolina this year, he walked nearly 5 batters per 9 innings. In 17 AA innings, that number almost doubled to 9.35. He was getting hit, too: ERAs of 6.75, 5.59, 5.52, 5.71 litter his minor league records. It’s clear that he’s got the arm. But without direction, it’s hard to rank him as high as his ‘stuff’ suggests.
Glimmers of Hope?
Clearly, Brockish caught him on a good day. In fact, it was the best day he’s had there thus far. Pitching for the Peoria Javalinas in the Arizona Fall League on Wednesday, Cabrera threw one inning, striking out 2, and walking none. It was a 1-2-3 inning, and his second straight scoreless outing. This lowered his ERA to 9.64, though over less than 5 innings, we have to discount that number somewhat.
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In those 4.2 innings, Cabrera has now walked just 2 batters, striking out 6. He was getting hit hard in the early outings, though: 8 hits in total, including a homer. But it’s mostly the control we’re concerned with here. If he can somehow harness that, then the fastball – even if it’s the only pitch he throws – might be enough to start him back up on our prospect chart.
No place to go but “up” from here.