House That Hank Built
Fansided

Atlanta Braves Trade The Best Shortstop on the Planet

By Alan Carpenter

facebooktwitterreddit

Aug 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop

Andrelton Simmons

(19) (top right) reacts with teammates in the dugout against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Yankees defeated the Braves 20-6. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Coppy did it… he actually traded Andrelton Simmons.  Let’s get right to it, then:

More from Tomahawk Take

BRAVES RECEIVE

ANGELS RECEIVE

Before getting to the pitchers coming to Atlanta, a word about Briceno.  Jose Briceno was one of the two catchers coming to Atlanta in the deal sending David Hale and Gus Schlosser to Colorado last off-season.  Chris O’Dowd was the other.

O’Dowd – son of the former Rockies General Manager – started out extremely well (both in Spring and in AA play) until he got caught with a tainted urine sample and was suspended for the rest of the year.  Briceno was said to be the player with the better upside, but after hitting in .283 in 2014 for the Rockies’s A-ball affiliate, crashed to a .183 playing for High-A Carolina.

Unless O’Dowd can return to some form of play without ‘assistance’, it appears the Braves might now have nothing to show for that deal with Colorado.

What Did the Braves Really Get for Simba?

Earlier today, our sister site for the Cardinals (Redbird Rants) posted a missive about their desire to see Simmons in St. Louis red attire.  In that, author Chris Greene opined that the Heyward trade might be a reasonable ‘comp’ to a Simmons deal.  I generally agree.

In that trade, we received a front-line major league pitcher in Shelby Miller and a top prospect in Tyrell Jenkins.  Today’s trade arguably matches and perhaps exceed that slightly, though you may have to work through the smoke to see that.

Let’s check:

  • The #1 thing we do not receive:  LHP Andrew Heaney.  He was promoted to the majors and posted a 3.49 ERA in 18 major league starts.  He’s been quite effective, though not overpowering (~3:1 K/BB ratio, .287 BABIP against), respectable numbers throughout.

Heaney has a 55 future value grade on fangraphs, which pretty much pegs him as a mid-rotation starter.  John Sickels at minorleagueball.com grades him B+/A-, and there he had been the #1 prospect for LA.

Keeping that in mind…

Jul 18, 2014; Angels 2014 first round draft pick Sean Newcomb attends the game against the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

LHP SEAN NEWCOMB

  • Just completed a AA season for the Angels and is (was) their #1 prospect, with 9.75 K/9, but 6 BB/9 as well.  Overall, a 2.75 ERA.  That represents his highest walk rate as a pro, and is not exactly major-league ready.
  • He hails from Middleborough Massachusetts and was attending Hartford when drafted.
  • His fastball grades at 60/65 and future value is guessed at the same as Heaney – a 55. Sickels gave him a B/B+, which more-or-less matches his treatment for Allard, Hector Olivera, and Ozhaino Albies.  Therefore, Sickels should slot Newcomb in roughly as our #4 prospect – even with Austin Riley and Lucas Sims.

Newcomb is 22-1/2 and was drafted out of college in 2014 as the 15th overall pick (we got Kolby Allard at 14, but recall that he slid a bit).  He’s 6-5, 240 (a horse) and actually pitched at three levels in 2015.  That 2.75 ERA I gave you was the highest at any stop, and depending on what else might be going on, he could actually be a candidate for Atlanta coming out of Spring Training.

Fangraphs’s Kiley McDaniel (who now works for the Braves, if you missed that bit) ranked Newcomb as the 54th best prospect overall last February… mentioning that the Mariners almost pulled the trigger on him at their 6th pick in 2014, and others had him as their backup pick between there and where the Angels snagged him.

His velocity sounds a lot like that of Lucas Sims (91-94, bumps to 97) and “the raw elements are here for an ace if [he] can make all the necessary adjustments and stay healthy.” (McDaniel’s words).  On that same chart, McDaniel had Heaney ranked 50th.

I remember Newcomb from the 2014 draft board, and was hoping he’d slip to the Braves… but also didn’t hold out a lot of hope there.  Honestly, I do think the Braves might have gotten the better of the two pitchers – assuming there was a choice involved (between Newcomb and Heaney).

I would have preferred both, as we’ll see.

RHP CHRISTOPHER ELLIS

  • #2 Angels prospect, Chris Ellis is 23 years old, and was taken in the 3rd round of 2014’s draft (88th overall).  He is 6’4″/190 and also completed a hurried AA season… starting the year in High-A.
  • He is from Braves Country:  attended Spain Park HS in Birmingham and was at Ole Miss when drafted.
  • Sickels placed Ellis 8th on the Angels’ prospect list (now 7th after removing Heaney) and graded him at C+/B-.  His combined ERA in 2015 was 3.90, and again:  too many walks (2.87 rate in High-A, but 4.96 in AA).  He is not as overpowering as Newcomb, but misses enough bats – getting roughly a K per inning overall.

The MLB Pipeline site ranked Ellis as the #2 Angels prospect. right behind Newcomb.  Their scouting grades give him a future value of 50, with Fastball and Changeup both getting his best grades of 55.

The writers there weren’t sure if Ellis is a starter or reliever in the long-term.  Walk rate may determine that, and apparently the Braves are counting on it.

The Angels do not have a great farm system – we already had plucked Ricardo Sanchez from them last year in the deal for Kyle Kubitza.  Clearly, Newcomb was the prize today.

If I were grading this trade return against the Jason Heyward deal (ignoring Erick Aybar), then I’d have to say that Heaney + Newcomb would be more the equivalent than Newcomb and Ellis.  It’s a good return, but not a great one… unless Ellis blossoms into something more than expected.

ERICK AYBAR

SS Aybar is scheduled to earn $8.5 million in this, the upcoming last year of his 5-year contract… and just prior to him becoming a 10-and-5 rights player.  He pretty much had to come back in this deal.

Aybar is nearly 32 years old and the Braves will have him for just one year, more than likely.

His hitting is essentially equivalent to that of Simmons:  .276 over his career – and very consistently so, with .315 OBP but very little power.  He rarely walks (4-5%) and rarely strikes out (10-11%).  Unfortunately, he also doesn’t get on base enough either (.215 lifetime/.301 in 2015).

Aybar’s defensive is probably about average at this point as well.  Adequate enough, but there will be numerous occasions where we’ll all say “Simmons would have had that”.

Just how quickly Aybar is replaced may be entirely up to Ozhaino Albies.  In terms of normal progression, he’s still 3 seasons away from the majors, though I expect Atlanta to start pushing him to see how quick he can get there.  I would not at all be surprised to see him in AA to start the year… and then we’ll see how things go from that point.

…though I would not expect it would be this fast.

Overall

Does this trade strike me as an “overwhelming” return for Simmons?  No – it does not.  In fact, it’s probably at least one more player light (which the Angels didn’t really have to give, either).

It’s a decent return, but surprisingly limited, given the number of teams supposedly tying up Coppy’s phone. It did not need to happen this quickly, and in this writer’s opinion didn’t need to settle for this alone.  I would have kept Simmons if offered this deal.

Curiously, though there’s this:

I dunno about that… maybe they haven’t seen that much of Simba on that coast.

Next: Time to Review Those Reasons for Trading Him Again?

I do believe Newcomb has a chance to turn into a front-line starter, but unless Ozzy turns out to be the second-coming of Simba, the defense just got noticeably worse… and probably much worse for multiple years.

Frank Wren once said that he paid attention to the backs of people in the stands – noting the names on the jerseys and shirtsys that the fans wore.  He knew that people held a loyalty to certain players, and that observation – for good or bad – played a role in some of his thinking.

John Coppolella has shown that he’s a bottom-line kind of General Manager.

But we’re loaded with pitchers… so the dealing ain’t done, folks.

Home/Braves News