Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Billy Wags, Coppy Complains

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Jul 26, 2015; Cooperstown, NY, USA; The 4 Hall of Fame plagues of

Craig Biggio

Randy Johnson

Pedro Martinez

and

John Smoltz

installed and available for viewing in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Billy Wagner on Hall of Fame: ‘I was talked about as one of the best’

GRAHAM WOMACK / SPORTSNEWS.COM

More from Tomahawk Take

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On a crowded ballot, there’s a chance [Billy] Wagner could draw less than five percent of the vote and thus be disqualified from future ballots. He’s got a numbers-heavy case, and that doesn’t always jibe with voters. Closers benefit with Hall of Fame voters if they have the color of a Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage or Dennis Eckersley along with impressive stats. Some Hall of Fame closers have also needed time to build their cases such as Sutter who was enshrined in his 13th year on the BBWAA ballot. But the BBWAA now has just 10 years to consider players.

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Perhaps Jayson Stark of ESPN.com said it best when he posted stats for Rivera, Hoffman and Wagner in a recent piece.

“Is it clear, from looking at them, which of those three relievers was the greatest of all time?” Stark wrote. “It may be to those of you who play really close attention. But the point is, they’re closer than you think.”

Rivera’s in a class all by himself as a relief pitcher, his 652 saves best in baseball history and his 32.7 Wins Above Average roughly twice as good as any reliever aside from Hoyt Wilhelm. But after the surprisingly underrated Wilhelm who comes in at 26.9 WAA, Wagner is third best among all relievers at 16.5 WAA.

Expect at least a few writers to describe Hoffman as the National League version of Rivera during the years they pitched. That title should belong to Wagner who trounces Hoffman in WAA, ERA+, FIP, and SO/9. Sure, Hoffman has 179 more saves, but the save’s long been exposed as an overrated stat for relievers. Like the RBIs for hitters, the save’s situation-dependent and tied more to one’s team than individual ability.

Wagner’s greatness is evidenced in the variety of advanced metrics that rate him favorably. Among relievers with at least 500 career innings, Wagner has the best WHIP all-time at .998 and is tied with Brad Lidge for best SO/9 at 11.92. His 187 ERA+ is second all-time to Rivera’s 205, and his 2.73 FIP trails only Tom Henke’s 2.72.

[ Ed. note: We previously wrote about Billy Wagner and the expectation that he’ll be snubbed by the baseball writers. This adds even more reasons to feel that way, despite Wagner’s fairly evident accomplishments. Probably the best thing that could happen for his candidacy is that a huge class is elected this season (that being 5 or 6 enshrinees) so that the ballot is cleared a bit for him. ]

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