Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Wags, London, Ozuna
Jul 26, 2015; Cooperstown, NY, USA; Hall of Fame Inductee
Craig Biggioplague is brought out for installation into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Billy Wagner‘s HoF Chances Not Going Well So Far
As suspected, it’s not looking good for Billy Wagner and the Hall of Fame … at this pace he’ll need to start picking up some support simply to remain on the ballot for next year. We talked about some reasons to expect this a couple of weeks ago.
Ryan Thibs (@NotMrTibbs on twitter) is keeping track of all ballots he can find – and at this point there are 13 that have been made publicly available. You can see his spreadsheet at this link.
Of those 13 ballots, Wags’ name appears on one of them (7.7%).
There’s a 5% threshold required to maintain a place on the ballot from year-to-year, and a new requirement to limit a candidacy to just 10 years for newly eligible players. 13 ballots is a far cry from the 450 or so expected to be turned in, but it’s starting to look something akin to a representative sample. Once we hit 40-50 ballots, it will definitely be a ‘trend’.
Of the 13 ballots known, here’s what they reveal:
- Jeff Bagwell/Mike Piazza… looking solid so far at 92%
- Barry Bonds/Roger Clemens… surprising strength at 61.5% (but there could be a correlation between those making their ballots public and their views on the steroid controversy)
- Ken Griffey, Jr. – 100%
- Tim Raines… going to be right on the edge. Currently 77% (75% is required for induction)
- Trevor Hoffman… also on the edge, and it is perhaps an upset to see this: 69% so far
- Alan Trammell, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, and Fred McGriff… spread between 62% and 31%
ESPN’s Buster Olney has maintained his principled, yet logically flawed (my opinion) stand in abstaining from the balloting process for 2016.
My theory is that a large HoF class could help Wagner in the future by ‘de-cluttering’ the ballot next year. If these trends hold, 4-5 players could get in, and that indeed constitutes a ‘large’ class.
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