Rumor: Dodgers’ Pederson for Atlanta Braves’ Shelby Miller Discussed

Oct 4, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson (31) hits a two run home run in the second inning of the game against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Dodgers and Braves reportedly discussed swapping Pederson for Miller

The rumors are truly getting more interesting by the day.

According to Robert Murray of BaseballEssential.com, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves have had a conversation involving a trade involving Starting pitcher Shelby Miller for outfielder Joc Pederson.

His source tells him that the Dodgers are willing to let Pederson go for a controllable starting pitcher… and Miller probably has to rank as the best of the bunch, so it would be reasonable to assume that the young center fielder would indeed be in play.

About Pederson

You might have heard of this kid.  If you haven’t, you weren’t paying attention.

Soon to be 24, Palo Alto native Pederson busted onto the scene this past Spring by hitting .298 in April with 4 homers, 10 RBI, and 17 walks (3 intentional).  Pitchers then figured out that pitching to him was a bad idea and he averaged around .200 for the rest of the year, finished at .210… albeit with 26 home runs.  If he’d sustained any of that first month, then (a) he’d have won the Rookie of the Year award, and (b) we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

But it’s his AAA stats that I want to focus on, for that’s likely a lot closer to his eventual ceiling in the majors:  .303/.435/.582/1.017 with 33 home runs and 106 runs scored with 30 steals to boot.  Yes, it’s a hitters’ league; yes, it’s AAA… but he also scalded the ball in Rookie ball, A+ and AA leagues, too.  The meltdown in the majors was a bit surprising since he’d never had a failure before, but more so that he really didn’t bounce back during the season.  That’s either a coaching failure or a rookie trying too hard.  Either way, he has the talent to correct that… clearly.  In short, this is a player we would want.  Unequivocally.

Contract status?  Arbitration eligible in 2018; earliest season that free agency would start is 2021.  That’ll work.

So if there is interest, why hasn’t this happened yet?

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That’s a reasonable question, but the answer may involve a bunch of factors: the holidays, money, Zack Greinke, other teams making offers for Pederson (or Miller), or other players that could be involved.

• On the Greinke front: 
  • the Dodgers want him back…maybe… and would rather that the Giants not get him, of course.  San Francisco is making a push, though, and seems willing to pay to get him… numbers that would likely approach $30 million annually.
  • Greinke had made $25m in 2015, and his opted-out contract added $26m/$25m/$26m through 2018.  The Giants have additional leverage because they are still under the luxury tax threshold.  The Dodgers, however, are in the max-penalty box, so every dollar spent on Greinke is subject to a 50% tax.  So even if they matched a $30m offer from SF, they’d have to pay $45 million annually to keep him.
  • The Dodgers have made it clear they would like to reduce payroll… hence the idea of young pitchers.  My own suspicion is that they really don’t want Zack back, but would like to at least stick SF with a bloated contract.  So they might be kinda playing a game here to have a deal ready to go once Greinke signs.
• As for other teams looking for Miller:
  • If John Coppolella hasn’t already agreed to this trade in principle, then he lied to us about needing to trade Andrelton Simmons so quickly.  Pederson may not turn into Mike Trout, but he’s gonna have days in which you will think about Trout by the way he hits.  This is the equivalent of Michael Conforto, Carlos Gomez, Nolan Arenado, … those kinds of hitters:  big power, big offense… and in a center fielder’s package.
• The complication:  other players involved
  • In my own personal non-professional estimation, if the Murray’s source is correct, then I frankly wouldn’t complicate the deal much more.  Yes, the Dodgers and Braves did that with the Wood/Peraza/Olivera/others deal in July, but I would do this as clean as possible and worry about my glut of outfielders in Atlanta later.
  • Could the Dodgers want Mallex Smith back?  Could they want to send Alex Wood back to Georgia?  Could the Braves be trying to get silly and send Michael Bourn to California?  All of those things would be on the table, probably.  But frankly, this isn’t one you’d want to mess up.
  • Also: if the Dodgers are getting other offers for Pederson, I honestly don’t know that anyone could beat a Miller offer except the Yankees (Luis Severino).  And there’s no indication that they’d be inclined to go there with their own top prospect Aaron Judge being nearly ready to roll into the Bronx.

Next: How About a Cup o'Zo?

Robert Murray speculates that Greinke’s situation may be the hold-up to this rumor’s completion, noting that if Greinke bolts, this could well be in play – and it does indeed make sense for both sides.

Dang – it’s not even December yet.