Atlanta Braves Trade Market Update: Shelby Miller

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Sep 10, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Shelby Miller (17) takes the ball from catcher A.J. Pierzynski (15) against the New York Mets in the sixth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Some Clarity is Emerging in the Starting pitching Market

With Monday afternoon’s sudden announcement that David Price has agreed to terms with the Red Sox, the market for starting pitching is suddenly getting much more clear. Let’s illustrate:

SIGNED

David Price – gone. Boston, 7 years/$217 million (or… $90 million and opting out after 3 years)
Brett Anderson – gone. Took his Qualifying offer with the Dodgers.
Marco Estrada – gone. Blue Jays, 2 years/$26 million.
J.A. Happ – gone. Blue Jays, 3 years/$36 million. Set the floor price for many to follow.
Jordan Zimmermann – gone. Detroit, 5 years/$110 million. Reset Johnny Cueto‘s expectations higher.

AVAILABLE

Zack Greinke. Guessing it will now take 6 years x $32.5 million, or $195 million.
Johnny Cueto. Said to want $140-160m; rejected a 6×20 offer from Arizona. Arizona is pushing.

SECOND TIER

Enter Atlanta

The Braves are the only club that is clearly dangling one or more starting pitchers right now. Shelby Miller is the focus of many teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Arizona, possibly Houston or St. Louis). Up to 20 teams are said to have made inquiries, with others on the outside right now.

The Braves are in a sweet spot and they know it: Miller is the best controllable frontline pitcher available and they are selling high to any team willing to overpay in prospects rather than via cash.

This is a highly unusual situation, and the reason is all about supply, demand, and money. The usual rules of control, projected WAR, and other math will not apply. It is a seller’s market. Let’s go through the primary suitors (in no particular order):

ARIZONA – They are going ‘All in’ while they have their core offense together. Willing to spend to get there as well… to a point. See Cueto as the best combination of affordable and ace-like for their needs. Braves keep asking them for A.J. Pollock, but he’s part of that offensive firepower and precisely need to keep him.
GIANTS – Focused on Greinke and willing to spend whatever it takes. I believe they will get him because I honestly don’t think the Dodgers want to overspend and merely want the Giants to do so instead.
DODGERS – Publicly indicated that they wish to trim payroll, yet are still attached to Greinke pursuit. Paid him $25m in 2015. Will require $32m in 2016. What a country.
CUBS – Cannot really spend like the teams above, though they are clearly ready to make a push to be a powerhouse. They need one pitcher, and I expect they would rather go with Miller.
ST. LOUIS – Can’t rule out a reunion, though it would be difficult for the Braves to extract a lot of need-fillers from them.
ASTROS – Need more pitching. Matchup seems iffy with Atlanta, though.
BOSTON – You might have thought they’d still need one more pitcher, but according to Nick Cafardo, they actually intend to sell on to refill their farm system. That could complicate Atlanta’s efforts.

Who Would Boston try to move, then? Likely not Rick Porcello. Clay Buchholz might be the best asset, but has been every-other-year durable and is under control through 2017 (counting an option year). Wade Miley isn’t going to excite anybody.

That leaves their kids… and that’s a curious thing if they actually want to move one. We’ll see.

Next: What Price Will Make it 'Miller Time'?

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