Atlanta Braves Newcomer: Casey Kelly, From Top Prospect To Second Chance
October 2, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Casey Kelly (49) pitches the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
New Atlanta Braves Right Hander Casey Kelly
Who Is He?
Casey Kelly is a Sarasota, Florida native, the son of former MLB infielder Pat Kelly, who was drafted in the first round with the 30th overall selection by the Boston Red Sox in 2008 out of high school. He originally had legitimate considerations as a two-way player, and the Red Sox did allow him to begin his career as he desired as a shortstop in 2008, as he played in 36 games and had 141 plate appearances between the Gulf Coast League and New York-Penn League that season, hitting a combined .215/.255/.331 with a 6/42 BB/K ratio.
In 2009, Kelly actually did play both pitcher and shortstop, starting his season in the Gulf Coast League and playing in Greenville of the South Atlantic League and high-A Salem of the Carolina League by the end of the season. He combined to hit .222/.302/.340 over 182 plate appearances, but continued with poor pitch recognition with a 19/49 BB/K ratio. On the mound, he fared much better, making 17 starts and throwing 95 innings with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 16/74 BB/K ratio. After a .171/.261/.244 line in the Arizona Fall League that season, he was done playing shortstop and moved to the mound full time. Baseball America listed him as the #24 prospect, and Baseball Prospectus had him as the #30 prospect in baseball.
In 2010, the 20 year-old moved to AA Portland in the Eastern League, and he did not fare well. In 21 starts and 95 innings, he allowed a 5.31 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He struggled with walks significantly more as well with a 35/81 BB/K ratio. He returned to the Arizona Fall League as a pitcher, but he struggled even further there with a 6.75 ERA in 4 AFL starts. The shine was a bit off of his prospect status, but many pointed to his young age and assumed he’d bounce back. He was still ranked as the #31 prospect by Baseball America and #48 prospect by Baseball Prospectus. Kelly was then included in the December trade between the Red Sox and San Diego that sent Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox.
San Diego sent Kelly to AA San Antonio in the Texas League in 2011. He put up solid numbers with 27 starts and 142 1/3 innings, sporting a 3.98 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 46/105 BB/K ratio. Kelly began to look more like a sinker ball guy that would be an inning-eater rather than an ace-type, and the rankings showed it as he dropped to #76 in Baseball America’s rankings and #78 in Baseball Prospectus’s rankings. MLB.com released their first top 100 list, and they placed Kelly #50 on their list.
Elbow issues began to show up in 2012, and Kelly made a total of 8 starts in the minor leagues in 2012 as he was on the shelf for elbow concerns for nearly five months of the season. He posted a 3.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 37 2/3 innings in those 8 starts with a 3/39 BB/K ratio when he was on the mound. He came up in September to San Diego, making 6 starts, throwing 29 innings at 6.21 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with a 10/26 BB/K. Even with the major league struggles and injury concerns, his performance in the minors moved him up the Baseball America list to #45. Baseball Prospectus had him nearly the same as before the season at #77, and MLB.com had him at #69.
Kelly succumbed to Tommy John surgery in April of 2013, and he missed all of 2013 and struggled to return in 2014 from the surgery. He made only 4 starts in the minors, split between high-A Lake Elsinore of the Cal League and AA San Antonio in the Texas League. In those 4 starts, he threw 20 1/3 innings, posting a 2.21 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with a 1/17 BB/K ratio.
Next: Kelly's scouting report
2015 saw Kelly return back to the mound for a full season, but not really with the results you’d want to see. He made 31 appearances, 17 of them starts, between AA and AAA in the minor leagues before making 3 appearances, 2 of them starts, for the Padres in September. In his minor league time, he totaled 97 2/3 innings as he was eased slowly into the rotation, not making his first start until nearly June and his 15th appearance of the season. He posted a 5.16 ERA and 1.57 WHIP along with a 39/74 BB/K ratio in that time. In the majors, he threw 11 1/3 innings with a 7.94 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and 3/7 K/BB ratio.