Can the Atlanta Braves Rely on Prospect Growth Alone?
Mar 12, 2015; Tempe, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Sean Newcomb (86) throws in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Lots of Premium Prospects Coming… But is there enough Production?
It does not appear that waiting on the farm alone will be sufficient to get Atlanta to the kind of team production that it will need to be a perennial playoff contender
A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the productivity of the 2015 Atlanta Braves. It was pretty abysmal. In short, to be a playoff team in 2015, you had to be able to show fWAR production in all aspects of the game – pitching, hitting, and defense – that added to at least 43 WAR.
The 5 NL playoff teams were remarkably balanced: 21+ WAR pitching; 22+ WAR on offense (note: pitchers’ contributions on offense were ignored for these numbers).
Of teams that were close, the Giants (39.7) were close to that 43 mark overall, though it was skewed away from pitching (8.9). The Nationals came up with a 40.8 overall and were balanced… but most of their production came from a single source: Bryce Harper (9.5 of the team’s 19.1 offensive WAR). The Diamondbacks were strong on offense and defense (25.6), but lacked in pitching (8.1).
So what have the DBacks and Giants done this Fall? Loaded up on pitching. I still don’t know what the Nationals are doing.
The Braves have a lot of work to do: 5 on pitching WAR; 13.6 on the offense… and a lot of that has been traded away. Simmons: 3.2; Uribe: 1.4 in 46 games; Phillip Goselin: 0.3 in 20 games; Shelby Miller and Alex Wood: 5.4 combined.
When Will Help Arrive?
This graphic represents my best guess are when we could see some of the better -ranked prospects hit the majors. This shows the top dozen, as currently ranked at mlbpipeline.com, plus 2 more of particular interest: Mallex Smith and Austin Riley. The ‘most red’ part of each bar is the hot spot in trying to guess when each player’s major league debut could be.
Some players, such as Ozhaino Albies, have a very wide bar due to uncertainty about how quickly the organization will push him through the system – and he well he will respond, of course. Mallex Smith was another with considerable uncertainty due to unknown factors such as future possible trades. So there is certainly room to quibble over many of these dates, though this should be fairly close overall.
Several observations:
- With estimates: failure is always an option. I was reminded this morning about ‘prospect failure’ rates (a term I loathe, by the way). Roughly 70% of prospects do not make the majors; a figure that’s higher with pitchers. In my book, that’s not “failure”, given that we’re talking about the elite levels of professional competition, but ultimately we all want ‘real’ major league players.
- “Arrive” does not mean “thrive”. It generally takes about 3 years before a productive major leaguer gets to be actually productive.
- Sure: the prospect list is deep on the farm now. I could have included several more names. But given the rates that players outside the Top 10 or so become productive players, it makes sense to limit the scope here.
- If you need 21+ WAR on offense and on pitching to make the playoffs, you need multiple players contributing to reach that goal. On average, that’s probably 2+ WAR from all of your regular position players; 2.5+ from your rotation and 1+ in your bullpen. Only 94 major leaguer hitters were at 2.0 or better in 2015; 48 starting pitchers at 2.5+)
Some players will clearly be better than others. Will Sean Newcomb show up in 2016 and start throwing to a 2.5 WAR rate? Not likely, but it’s possible by 2018, perhaps. Will Mallex Smith be a 2 WAR player right out of the box? It’s possible, though you can’t count on that. Jace Peterson started off great in 2015… and faded to a 1.1. The team is countering with a possible platoon situation for him in 2016.
In short, you have to view every prospect through a bit of an unvarnished, almost jaded filter, for they almost always look better than they pan out. But in totality… the group should perform well over time.
Next: Crystal-Balling the Future