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Hall of Fame Expectations… No Atlanta Braves in 2016

By Alan Carpenter

Jul 27, 2014; Cooperstown, NY, USA; Hall of Fame inductee Tom Glavine (left) and Hall of Fame inductee Greg Maddux during the class of 2014 national baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony at National Baseball Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 27, 2014; Cooperstown, NY, USA; Hall of Fame inductee Tom Glavine (left) and Hall of Fame inductee Greg Maddux during the class of 2014 national baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony at National Baseball Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 27, 2014; Cooperstown, NY, USA; Hall of Fame inductee Tom Glavine (left) and Hall of Fame inductee Greg Maddux during the class of 2014 national baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony at National Baseball Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 27, 2014; Cooperstown, NY, USA; Hall of Fame inductee Tom Glavine (left) and Hall of Fame inductee Greg Maddux during the class of 2014 national baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony at National Baseball Hall of Fame. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports /

The Hall of Fame… Trends, Plus Identifying Needs for an Overhaul

On Wednesday afternoon, we will learn the names of the former players who will comprise the Hall of Fame Class of 2016.  They will be interviewed about their reactions, they will be lauded for their careers, and they will don awkward-looking jerseys that really should be redesigned from the top down.

For the first time in three years, none of them will be former Atlanta Braves.

@NotMrTibbs has wonderfully tracked and compiled ballots made public by baseball writers who are allowed to vote, and nearly a third of the total expected responses are in.  While we await the outlying precincts in rural areas to arrive, there are some definite trends that we can see from his work.

  • Ken Griffey, Jr. – will be elected.  The only questions remaining now are whether he’ll beat Tom Seaver‘s record (probably) and whether his election will be unanimous (probably not – there’s always That Guy who will preserve the status quo)
  • Mike Piazza – will be elected.  He’s above 87%, and needs just 70% of the remaining ballots to hit the magic 75% threshold.
  • Jeff Bagwell – likely.  Needs 72% of the remaining ballots.
  • Tim Raines – very close.  Needs 73%.

That would constitute a “large” enshrinement class.  But there are several other names that are lingering at an interesting vote-support level for future years:

  • Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens (49.7%, 49%):  I’m lumping this pair together for obvious reasons – including the fact that nearly every ballot voting for one of these players has also voted for the other.  Jon Heyman is the most recognizable name of those who didn’t – opting for Bonds alone.
  • Trevor Hoffman (61.5%).  Many thought he was a shoo-in this, his first eligible year.  Not so fast.  He’ll get in, yeah, but not in 2016.
  • Curt Schilling (60.8%).  This is going to be a little interesting, and new voters coming in from MLB.com could help swing his case.  He’s been gaining votes steadily – this is his 4th voting cycle.
  • Mike Mussina (56.6%).  Seems to be taking a back seat to others of higher profile on the ballot.  This is his 3rd balloting cycle, and he might have to continue to wait a bit before the voters get around to him.
  • Edgar Martinez (49.7%).  In a year in which he had to keep hearing about the wonder that is David Ortiz and how Ortiz is a “sure” 1st-ballot Hall of Famer, voters should be reminded that Martinez posted a total WAR of 65.5 in his 18 year career with a 147 wRC+.  Ortiz?  46.1 and 138 over 20 seasons. Martinez has 3 more shots at the Hall via direct election.

Alan Trammell?  See ya.  He will be removed from the ballot after this year despite a last ditch effort that is garnering 46% of the tally thus far.  By the way, he also beats Ortiz in total WAR… for he played defense.

What of the Former Braves?

  • Billy Wagner.  It looks like he will be safe to survive to another balloting year.  Wags is at nearly 10% of the vote, but while that’s very low (and was definitely concerning for a while as early ballots showed him hovering around that dreaded 5% elimination-from-play Mendoza line), he seems to be slotted behind Trevor Hoffman.  Once Hoffman (and Mariano Rivera starting next year) are elected, then perhaps voters will come around to the fact that Wagner’s dominance should speak for itself.
  • Fred McGriff.  The Crime Dog is probably going to end up being one of the best players not in the Hall.  This is his 7th ballot, and he’s sitting at just 17.5%.  His career wasn’t as long as some (18 years) and his stats aren’t quite there to certain thresholds (493 homers, .284 lifetime batting average, never won an MVP – despite getting votes in 8 different years).  But certainly, when the Atlanta Braves needed the One Bat that could carry them to a title, his was the one they went for – and that paid off in 1995.
  • Gary Sheffield.  Okay, yeah, he played for 8 teams… but that was because he was the kind of hitter teams went after once McGriff was no longer ‘the man’.  62 fWAR, .292, and 509 HR… that normally would be enough.  But a steroid tainting haunts him.  Not personally sure that steroids necessarily helped his bat speed (3rd base coaches lived in fear whenever he approached the plate), but his 8.4% vote tally (2nd ballot) is appallingly light.
  • Garret Anderson.  Earl Bloom (@earl_bloom_spts) is a writer for the Orange County Register, and member of the Baseball Writers Association of America.  He should also probably have his voting privileges revoked for giving Anderson the only vote he’s received.

Next: The Hall: Where I Stand

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