Updated Look at the Atlanta Braves 2016 Draft Positions
Sep 13, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Justin Upton (10) high fives the dugout after scoring a run against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Qualifying Offer Signees Continue to Morph Draft Positions for MLB Teams
Baseball America has kindly updated the entire draft order for us in the wake of Justin Upton signing with the Tigers this week. This update is intended to let you know where the Atlanta Braves stand and what could still change in the near future.
One pick that won’t change: Atlanta’s 3rd overall pick. That pick is ‘protected’, as are the others in the top ten positions. So even if John Coppolella were to suddenly go crazy and find a high-priced free agent to sign, that pick isn’t going anywhere.
The next couple, however, are subject to some shuffling around.
Compensation Picks
Thus far, the following teams have garnered ‘extra’ picks to compensate them for their free agent losses:
- SAN DIEGO – get picks 26 and 27 for Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy.
- CHI SOX – lost Jeff Samardzija, got pick 28
- BALTIMORE – Pick 29 for Wei-Yin Chen
- WASHINGTON – Pick 30 for Jordan Zimmermann
- NEW YORK METS – Pick 31 for losing Daniel Murphy
- LA DODGERS – Pick 32 for Zack Greinke
- ST LOUIS – Adds picks 33 and 34 for John Lackey and Jason Heyward
Additionally, the Dodgers win the rights to pick #36 since they failed to sign their #35 overall pick from last year’s draft. No matter what other things happen with free agency before June, that pick is fixed in stone – other teams will move around it as necessary.
Likewise, Toronto gets pick #57 for not signing their 56th pick in 2015, the Orioles are comp’d #69, and the Twins get #74. Again, these picks cannot be moved.
Teams Losing Picks
Because of the above free-agent signees, a number of teams have given up early picks. They are…
- KANSAS CITY – Still scratching my head over this one – 1st round pick lost for the signing of Ian Kennedy – both the size of the contract and the loss of their draft pick (albeit at the end of the 1st round) are puzzling
- SAN FRAN – 1st rounder for signing Shark
- ARIZONA – 1st rounder for Greinke
- WASHINGTON – 1st rounder for Murphy. Note that they gained a pick for losing Zimmermann, so they moved down the board a few… several… slots.
- CHI CUBS – 1st and 2nd round picks for Lackey and Heyward
- DETROIT – Their first round pick is protected; however, they have sacrificed both their 2nd and 3rd round picks to sign Zimmermann and Upton
- MIAMI – second round pick lost for signing Chen; their first round pick was also protected.
Remaining Qualifying Offer Players
- Ian Desmond (Nationals)
- Dexter Fowler (Cubs)
- Yovani Gallardo (Rangers)
- Howie Kendrick (Dodgers)
If these “QO” players sign with a club other than the one they had been on in 2015, then that will shift the draft order once again.
Teams that still have a 1st round pick that they could lose are: Seattle, Boston, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cleveland, Minnesota, LA Angels, Houston, Yankees, Texas, Mets, Dodgers, Toronto, Pittsburgh, St. Louis (picks 11-25 overall).
Atlanta’s Picks
Right now, the Braves first five pick slots are: 3, 40, 44, 80, and 109. That’s the first 4 rounds.
- As mentioned earlier, pick #3 cannot change
- Pick 40 could change, moving lower if one of the following things happen:
- A team with a protected pick takes one of the QO players
- A team having already lost their 1st round pick takes one of the QO players
- Pick 44 could change, moving lower for the same reasons as #40, except if the Phillies or Reds are a signing team.
Thus it’s mathematically possible for picks 40 and 44 to drop up to 4 additional positions. But this could happen since teams that have already lost a 1st round pick might opt to “double down” (like the Cubs and Tigers already have done) since the loss of another draft pick is technically not as severe a penalty.
Likewise, the Braves third and fourth round picks (80 and 109) could trend lower, though it is more likely for them to stay in the same positions… unless Detroit and the Cubs go nuts and keep signing QO guys, which is highly unlikely.
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Could the Braves lose a pick? Again, not very likely at all, given the emphasis the team has placed on the draft. Those top three picks are highly valuable to them and on top of that, none of the remaining QO players would be terribly attractive to the club – particularly at the prices they should ultimately receive.