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Comparing Notes: Atlanta Braves’ Top Prospects and Rankings

By Alan Carpenter

Jul 21, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; A baseball, baseball glove and baseballs are shown on the infield during batting practice before the game against the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 21, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; A baseball, baseball glove and baseballs are shown on the infield during batting practice before the game against the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 21, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; A baseball, baseball glove and baseballs are shown on the infield during batting practice before the game against the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 21, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; A baseball, baseball glove and baseballs are shown on the infield during batting practice before the game against the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /

Prospect Rankings Between MLB.com and BaseballProspectus.com Suggest Quite Differing Opinions

Now we have two lists of prospect rankings revealed from last week – MLB.com and BaseballProspectus.com.  Since several Braves’ farm hands made both lists, it’s worth a bit of comparison shopping to see which might be more realistic.

Over the weekend, Jeff wrote up the list of Braves from Baseball Prospectus.  Let’s juxtaposition those with the new set from MLB.com

[table id=35 /]

MLB.com is very bullish on Swanson – a fact made more obvious by noting that their #7 prospect is Boston’s Yoan Moncada.

While that #8 rank is clearly aggressive, he’s still just the fourth shortstop on the list – behind #1 Corey Seager, #5 J.P. Crawford, and #6 Orlando Arcia, but ahead of Washington’s Trea Turner.  That said, BP.com put the Atlanta shortstops 9th and 10th for their position.

MLB.com also thought very highly of LHP Sean Newcomb and SS Ozzy Albies, pushing their ranks significantly higher.  However, they dropped both Aaron Blair and Kolby Allard a bit, and completely ignored Austin Riley.

So Who is Right Here?

Each club has probably 250 players attached to them at any one point in time.  Among 30 teams, that’s 7500 athletes.  Grading players at the lower levels is an especially difficult art form. If you have the wherewithal to think that you can see all of them and make definitive reports on them, you’re nuts.  The best you can do is see a bit of video or – if you’re lucky – some live action every few weeks or months.  Then you have to rely on trends, anecdotal reports from others, and more.  You also have to hope that what you see is entirely representative of the skills they have.

That’s why what Ben Chase is doing for us – endeavoring to provide a serious scouting report on every one of his Top 100 Braves prospects – is so crazy good.  Scouting isn’t easy.

So when MLB.com leaves Austin Riley off, it’s probably because they didn’t get a chance to see him… or at least not enough to grade him against others.

All that said, though, there are some rankings that I’m a bit curious about:

  • Swanson does seem too highly ranked at #8.  Evaluators point to his intangibles just as much as his skills.  That still leaves some doubt as to whether it’s he or Albies that eventually sticks at SS.  In fact, MLB.com grades Albies’ arm (60) better than Swanson’s (55).  Thus I like having this pair ranked much more closely together.  The 25-30 range seems about right for both.
  • Newcomb’s ranking of 21 or 32 seems to be in the right neighborhood – maybe call it 26 and go with that.  With him, his ranking is all about command/control.  If you believe Newcomb will get that sorted out… to reduce his walk rate and have complete confidence in his ‘stuff’… then you’d have to believe that the sky is the limit for him.
  • Aaron Blair.  Seems a bit low to me.  His command isn’t up for a lot of question, he’s just does not possess the ‘dominant stuff’ as others on the list ahead of him.  But he’s also getting hitters out.  BP’s 43 rank sounds better than MLB.com’s 56.

Other than these:  you can get into arguments all day long about who might be better than whom, but that’s significantly more difficult as you project A-level players and below.  That’s why Braxton Davidson is not ranked, or Touki Toussaint, or why Kolby Allard (back) is still at the end of the Top 100.  Others, such as Lucas Sims, had been on Top 100 lists in the past, but not shown the expected projection, and thus he’s fallen off.

Team Ranks

The other fun bit when comparing these rankings is to decipher how some of these teams are doing with their best minor leaguers.  Here’s the breakdown of every team with their players as shown on the new MLB.com rankings:

More from Tomahawk Take

DODGERS – 1,4,24,62,95
TWINS – 2,19,44,60,91,97
NATS – 3,11,63,78
PHILS – 5,55,64,70,84,96,99
BREWERS – 6,32,57,61,83
REDSOX – 7,17,25,39
BRAVES – 8,21,29,56,89
RANGERS – 9,16,18,36,73
PIRATES – 10,20,49,54,98
ROCKIES – 12,33,46,48,52,90
CARDINALS – 13,80
RAYS – 14,43,81
METS – 15,51,79,87
ASTROS – 22,40,41,74,75
OAKLAND – 23,68,100
INDIANS – 26,27,93
CUBS – 28,50,76,77,86,88
YANKEES – 30,31,59
REDS – 34,35,66,69,71
ROYALS – 37,65
WHITESOX – 38,47
BLUEJAYS – 42
PADRES – 45,58,92
TIGERS – 53
ARIZONA – 67,72
GIANTS – 82
ORIOLES – 85
MARINERS – 94
MARLINS – NONE
ANGELS – NONE

With 30 major league teams, you would expect 3-4 players to be ranked for each club, on average.  As highlighted, four clubs have 6+ players in the Top 100, with the Phillies having 7.

Does that mean the Phils have the best farm system?  Probably not,  While they have one Top 10 player, the rest are all in the lower reaches of this list, including 2 that barely cracked it.  Likewise, the Cubs have graduated their best prospects and while they still have several coming, none are are the level of a Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber.

The Dodgers have 3 ranked in the Top 25, and 2 others besides.  The Rangers have 3 in the Top 20 and one more in the Top 40.  The Red Sox only have 4, but all are in the Top 40.  The Rockies have 5 near the Top 50… but most of them are… near the Top 50.

Some folks will rank teams by assigning points:  100 points for the #1 player, 1 point for the 100th player.  I have a problem with that, though, because I would not equate the Rockies’ #48 and #52 players – worth 100 points total with Corey Seager and his 100 points.

In the NL East…

  • The Mets, Phillies, Braves, and Nationals all look strong with their repeated lists.
  • The Marlins?  Shockingly absent after having several prospects arrive at the majors… and several others not quite live up to the billing.

Next: Get Me Some Andruw

So while Braves’ fans have been excited to see how the prospect scavenger hunt has been going, you do have to look at the total package and at rankings such as the BP.com and MLB.com lists.  It’s not at all like Atlanta is running away with the best players – some excellent ones, for sure, and many more with significant upside.  But ultimately, the evaluators are taking a wait-and-see approach with the Braves, and other teams seem to be doing just as well… including most of those in our own division.

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