Atlanta Braves Have 7 Top 100 Prospects According to Keith Law
Atlanta Braves Prospect In-Depth Review
Unless you’ve been on a self imposed exile from baseball news outlets, you’ve probably heard by now that Keith Law from ESPN has ranked the Atlanta Braves as the top farm system in all of baseball. Also in his rankings yesterday, it was revealed that Atlanta had a total of 7 (yes, SEVEN) prospects in his top 100 list, tied with the Dodgers and Twins for the most players in that list.
Over the past 16 months or so, we’ve heard about how well the Braves have been doing in trades (well, except maybe that Alex Wood one), but the time has finally come to put the hauls John Hart and John Coppolella have gathered in perspective. That is… if you’re an ESPN Insider subscriber. Which I happen to be.
So without further ado, here are the rankings of all 7 prospects on the list.
# 12 – Dansby Swanson – SS – Age 23
Dansby Swanson has been the talk of the town in Atlanta since the Marietta native arrived in December’s trade of Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks. We all know the story: the first number one overall pick to be traded in less than a year after being drafted. But have you heard the scouting reports on this guy? Some scouts have likened him to a Derek Jeter-esque offensive contributor, but he can also play an above average defense as well, unlike Jeter for most of his career. Law says his arm might be his only lackluster tool, and that he’d like to see the coaching staff work on a minor stride or toe tap to help his weight transfer at the plate. But Law tends to agree with the scouts: he’s got all the makings of an above average defender, 12-15 home run power, a .290-.300 average, 20-25 stolen bases, and solid on base skills.
#20 – Ozhaino Albies – SS – Age 19
One of the very few farm hands left standing from the Frank Wren era, the Braves seemingly showed a great deal of faith in Albies when they shipped out top 2B/SS prospect Jose Peraza last August. That faith is being reinforced in this ranking by Law, as the 19 year old from Curacao (man, the Braves love that island) is the number 20 rank prospect in all of the game. Both Swanson and Albies being a shortstop is a wonderful problem to have, and many have felt that Albies will soon be on the transition to second base, but Law says not so fast. He believes his offensive performance is much more valuable as a shortstop, who may not have Andrelton Simmons‘ arm, but has the pure speed and instinct to offer above average range at the position. Law also slightly reinforces the comparison many have made to Jose Altuve, due to Albies’ small size but extreme ability to hit. He’s not a power hitter by any means, but Law loves his plate discipline and plus speed.
#30 – Sean Newcomb – LHP – Age 22
As the main prize from the fan base souring trade of Andrelton Simmons, Law is once again reinforcing a comparison we’ve all probably heard by now: Sean Newcomb might be the next Jon Lester. He even notes that Newcomb has even easier arm action than Lester, but also acknowledges that the control problems he’s shown in the minor leagues isn’t just bad luck. But he states that it might be a bit of a mental problem, as Newcomb possesses three plus pitches: a fastball that tops out around 96, a mid 80’s changeup that hitters haven’t been able to adjust to, and upper 70’s curve with a lot of movement.
#39 – Aaron Blair – RHP – Age 23
Another prospect that has been fleeced from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the past year, Blair is a big right hander with a big arm. Many assessed the irony that the Diamondbacks not only gave up an above average outfielder and the number one overall pick in last years draft for Shelby Miller, but they also gave up another one of their number one draft picks who could be ready to be as good as Shelby Miller as early as May of this year. Law believes that Blair has a real shot to crack the Braves rotation out of spring, and if not, he’ll be ready sooner than later. He cites the big heavy sinking action on his fastball and a plus changeup as the obvious tools he has to already succeed in the majors, but also notes that Blair has an already average curveball that he is still working on, but has steadily improved since he was drafted.
#43 – Kolby Allard – LHP – Age 18
Law acknowledges what we’ve probably all heard in one form or another since being drafted in the first round of last years draft: The Braves would not have gotten Kolby Allard if it weren’t for his back injury. The 18 year old had an impressive debut after fully recovering from injury last season, striking out 12 of the first 20 professional hitters he ever faced. Armed with a fastball that reaches 95 and a devastating curve ball (please, go find some video of it – it’s lethal), Law believes Allard has the pure stuff alone to graduate the bottom of the minors without even having to work on his changeup, although he notes that he should. The stuff is most definitely there, but he notes that the biggest objective for Allard right now is to just stay healthy in 2016.
#80 – Touki Toussaint – RHP – Age 19
The third Braves prospect on this list that was a first round draft pick from the Arizona system. Man I hope they’ve got a contingency plan. Toussaint was famously acquired by basically being bought from Arizona last summer, with the Braves giving up only a utility player to acquire him and the roughly $10M owed to injured veteran Bronson Arroyo. But despite being basically sold, don’t think any less of this guy: he has the stuff. Law loves his fastball, which has reached 98 but might have to settle around 95, and his plus curve ball. It’s almost as lethal as Allard’s. Law does note that while he obviously has the stuff and the athleticism, his mechanics are going to be crucial to his development, especially repeating his delivery consistently. But he believes that while it’s probably a few years away, he very obviously possesses the stuff to become a front of the rotation starter.
#96 – Max Fried – LHP – Age 22
Another arm that many agree that the Braves would not have gotten if he were not hurt, Fried is the often forgotten about piece from the Justin Upton trade, given the facial recognition of Jace Peterson, the hype and charisma of Mallex Smith, and the power talk of Dustin Peterson. But it’s also because Fried hasn’t yet actually thrown an in game pitch for the Braves, as he spent all of 2015 recovering from a late 2014 Tommy John surgery. Before the surgery, Fried could reach 96 and had an stellar curve, and Law notes that the maturity doubts that the Padres had about him have been erased in Atlanta (Law is close with Coppy, for those who don’t know – that’s MY insider information for you). He says the Braves couldn’t be happier with the way he has handled his rehab and says that his athleticism is “ridiculous” and has no doubts about his ability to get back into proper form post surgery, even going as far as saying he still has the ability to become a front of the rotation starter.
These were encouraging words to hear after a pretty dark two years of Atlanta Braves baseball. I have no doubt that there will be some naysayers, as there always are. Prospects are just “prospects”, another bad trade joke, I’m sure we’ll hear it all after seeing these rankings, but to reinforce the notion that we should take these rankings seriously, look at this: Law’s number one and three ranked prospects this time last year won the Rookie of the Year Award (Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa), and numbers six and fifteen (Fransisco Lindor, Miguel Sano) finished as runners up in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. In fact, Law notes that 12 of his 20 top prospects last year graduated to the majors fairly quickly. Law’s list also excludes foreign players with professional experience, or there’s a real shot Hector Olivera could have landed on this list.
All in all it’s a very real indication that all the losing, all one and a half years of it that fans can’t get over, has not been in vain. The Braves farm is coming in a river, not drops.