Is Hector Olivera really going to be this good?

Skeptics still abound about Hector Olivera, but results are coming after chance to acclimate to new surroundings this past winter

This short answer to this question is – Yes.

Atlanta Braves beat writer Mark Bowman has been one of Hector Olivera’s biggest skeptics throughout the winter. He explained his opinion during a mail bag feature for the team’s website back at the beginning of February.

Maybe Olivera’s great physical skills will help him take advantage of the chance to make necessary adjustments while experiencing his first full Spring Training this year. But accounting for the struggles the 30-year-old Cuban encountered in September and again during his abbreviated stint in the Puerto Rican Winter League, there’s reason to wonder if Olivera will make the many adjustments necessary to find success in the Majors.

I disagreed at the time, and I disagree even more now. Now, I do understand why Bowman and many other writers and fans have questioned Olivera’s skills and have questioned the Braves’ decision in obtaining him. The Cuban “superstar” only hit .253 during 25 games with Atlanta last year. And, he’s 30 years old. But, I gave him the benefit of the doubt then, and I still do.

I have a theory about Cuban players in general. Guys like Hector Olivera experience a different and perhaps more difficult type of adversity in the country of Cuba, and in leaving a country like Cuba, that once they get to a large stage, they don’t get rattled. Remember rookie Livan Hernandez in the 1997 World Series with the Marlins? I really think a lot of that incredible performance can be attributed to the battles Hernandez went through in Cuba. Hector Olivera used to have to drive 2 hours to the ballpark, wash his own uniform, all while playing hungry at times. Say what you want about the struggles that Joe Schmo goes through as a college player or as a minor league guy in Danville, Virginia, but what Cuban guys have gone through is just downright different.

I will admit that I do not have an arsenal of Major League stats to back up my high opinion of Hector Olivera. Even though he’s completely dominated Spring Training this year – It’s still just Spring Training. I know this. All I can say is – He was a superstar in Cuba (a .300 hitter who got on base) and, although it was a small sample size of 24 games last year with Atlanta, he impressed me at the plate.

Many writers and fans have attacked the John Hart for signing the 30 year old Cuban star. But, here’s the thing – Financially it made sense for the Braves and it really wasn’t an enormous gamble for them. Let me explain.

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The Braves were actually very interested in Olivera two winters ago, but the Dodgers came in with their giant west coast checkbook and blew the top offer away, signing him for a whopping $62 million. This was too much money for a 30 year old. And, the Braves knew this.

So, for the cost of Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, Jim Johnson, Luis Avilan and Bronson Arroyo, Atlanta got five years of Hector Olivera for nearly half the cost of what the Dodgers initially signed him for. Los Angeles was also left on the hook for Olivera’s entire signing bonus of $28.5 million.

Now, the jury is certainly still out on which team really came out on top, but if the end of the 2015 season is any indication, the Braves might have pulled another quick one on another west coast team. After joining Los Angeles, Alex Wood posted a 4.35 ERA, Peraza hit for a .182 BA (small sample size though, I will admit), Luis Avilan posted a 5.17 ERA in 23 appearances, and Jim Johnson posted a staggering 10.13 ERA before being released.

Prior to Spring Training, here’s what John Coppolella told the AJC on whether or not he was nervous about this mysterious 30 year old Cuban star, Hector Olivera:

“I wouldn’t say we feel nervous,” Coppolella said. “The player you see in 2015 may not be the player you see in 2016. There is a period of adjustment and acclimation for any Cuban player. We had a lot of our top scouts look at him. …we know he is going to be an impactful player for the Braves organization. This is about the future and adding an impactful player to a team that has struggled to find offense the last two years.”

The Braves see Olivera as a .280 hitter who can hit 20-25 home runs for an organization that is focused on rebuilding through pitching. I don’t see the power like the front office does. The most home runs Olivera ever hit in a season in Cuba was 17. That does not translate into 20-25 home runs in the Major Leagues. BUT, I think he’ll be a .300 hitter who barely strikes out and gets on base.

Based on Olivera’s history in Cuba, and his Spring Training performance, I can’t help but be excited about this guy. I’ve been saying it all winter – The Atlanta Braves offense in 2016 is going to impress everyone, while their pitching probably won’t. And, Hector Olivera is going to be a big part of that.

Even if I’m wrong about Hector Olivera and he tanks, it’s not the end of the world for the Atlanta Braves, as they got him for a bargain and their farm is obviously stacked with talent. But, I don’t think I’m wrong.

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Hector Olivera’s Spring Training slash line looks like this so far through 43 at-bats: .419/.422/.934. No home runs so far, but I really don’t care. Of course, I like power, but I’m telling you now – Don’t expect Hector Olivera do be a 20 home run guy. He never has been. He’s going to get on base. A lot. And remember, the team with the fewest home runs in the Major Leagues went to the World Series a couple of years ago.

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